Bitcoin is expected to surge in 2025, sparking speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After a tumultuous start to the year, new momentum, a recovery in market sentiment, and bullish indicators have analysts pondering: Are we about to repeat the Bitcoin bull market of 2017? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and long-term holder trends to assess the potential for explosive phases in this cryptocurrency market cycle.
Comparison of the 2025 Bitcoin cycle with past bull markets.
The recent surge in Bitcoin prices has exceeded expectations. According to the 'Growth of Bitcoin since the Cycle Low' chart, despite facing macro challenges and pullbacks, Bitcoin's trajectory is highly consistent with the cycles of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.
Historically, peaks in Bitcoin market cycles typically occur about 1,100 days after a low. The current cycle has lasted about 900 days, suggesting that there may still be hundreds of days of potential explosive growth ahead for Bitcoin prices. But can investor behavior and market mechanisms support the arrival of the 2025 Bitcoin supercycle?
Bitcoin investor behavior: Echoes of the 2017 bull market.
To gauge the psychology of cryptocurrency investors, the two-year rolling MVRV-Z score provides key insights. This advanced metric considers lost tokens, illiquid supply, the growing presence of ETFs and institutional holdings, and changes in the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders.
Last year, when Bitcoin prices reached about $73,000, the MVRV-Z score peaked at 3.39—this is a high level, but not unprecedented. A pullback followed, mirroring the mid-cycle consolidation seen in 2017. Notably, several high-scoring peaks appeared before the last parabolic rebound of the 2017 Bitcoin cycle.
Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API for cross-cycle Bitcoin analysis, it was found that its behavior is correlated with the 2013 double peak cycle by as much as 91.5%. Two significant highs have already occurred—one before the halving ($74,000) and one after the halving (above $100,000). The third peak, setting a new all-time high, may signify the emergence of a three-peak bull market for Bitcoin, potentially marking the onset of a Bitcoin supercycle.
The 2017 cycle showed a behavioral correlation of 58.6%, while the 2021 investor behavior similarity was lower, but its Bitcoin price trend correlation was about 75%.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are showing strong confidence.
Historically, a sharp rise in the rate of holding coins suggests a significant bottom, while a sharp decline indicates a top. Currently, this indicator is at a neutral turning point, far from peak distribution, indicating that long-term Bitcoin investors expect a significant price increase.
Bitcoin supercycle or further consolidation?
Can Bitcoin replicate the joyous parabolic rise of 2017? It is possible, but this cycle may carve a unique path, merging historical patterns with the dynamics of the modern cryptocurrency market.
We may be approaching the third major peak within this cycle—this would be unprecedented in Bitcoin's history. Whether this will trigger a complete melt-up in the Bitcoin supercycle remains uncertain, but key indicators suggest that BTC is far from peaking. Supply is tight, long-term holders remain steadfast, and demand continues to rise, largely due to the growth of stablecoins, institutional Bitcoin investments, and ETF liquidity.
Conclusion: Can Bitcoin rebound to $150,000?
While it is tempting to draw direct comparisons between Bitcoin today and the situations in 2017 or 2013, Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. As a maturing and institutionalized market, its behavior is evolving, but the potential for explosive growth in Bitcoin remains.
The historical cycle correlation of Bitcoin remains high, investor behavior is healthy, and technical indicators suggest upward potential. With no apparent signs of capitulation, profit-taking, or macroeconomic weakness, the momentum for Bitcoin prices to continue rising is building. Whether this will lead to a rebound of $150,000 or higher, the Bitcoin bull market in 2025 may go down in history.
