May 9, 2025:
Loss review:
Writing this market analysis is not easy; there is pressure and guilt. However, since I have incurred significant losses, I feel I should step up and write an analysis.
For me personally, my Bitcoin short position average is 93000, and the closing price is 100300; my Ethereum short position average is 1830, and the closing price is 2015. After previously losing on SOL, I have not re-entered, and I have placed a little in my copy trading account, but not much (I will add a short position on SOL at 167 and 173, but won't hold it too long; I will exit with a small profit near 162, or if the daily close is above 174, I will take a loss; 173.5 is the last resistance level that theoretically shouldn't be broken through all at once).
So the total loss on my trend order has also reached six figures, which cannot be considered a small amount; it will definitely affect this year's overall rate of return. I also want to apologize to all the fans who trust me.
Additionally, I apologize to the fans who have been messaging me these past two days; it's not that I don't want to reply to you, I just can't keep up, so I've let it go. From yesterday afternoon until noon today, basically every 3-5 minutes someone has come to find me, and the voice messages haven't stopped until this afternoon when it was a bit better.
I actually know what you want to talk to me about; it’s just three things.
1. Can this daily level downtrend still come out?
2. I hope the chicken father gives the bears a little confidence to hold on.
3. My short position hasn't hit the stop loss yet, the liquidation price is xxx, may I ask if I can get out of the position? What should I do now? How high will it go?
The first two questions are relatively easy to answer, while the third question is more complex. But I must say, if I have incurred significant losses on this order, it is actually not appropriate to ask me questions because my thinking has already proven to be wrong. If you encounter problems during trading, my suggestion is to ask those bloggers whose thinking has proven to be correct.
1. Can this daily level downtrend come out? It definitely can, but when it comes out, and what point the current daily level uptrend will reach, are both questionable.
Yesterday, I set stop losses at 100100 for Bitcoin and 2010 for Ethereum. Why did I set them this way? Because at the 100,000 threshold for Bitcoin, there will be a large number of long positions taking profits and closing, a large number of short positions building, and at the same time, there will be a large amount of spot selling pressure. If these three factors cannot suppress the price, I don't know where the price will go.
Many people say that this rise is because there are too many short positions, which have been squeezed up. I personally reserve my opinion on this because the 100,000 round number is a profit-taking level for long positions and a position-building level for short positions. Before the main force squeezes the shorts, they have to face the selling pressure from long positions taking profits, deal with the short positions at round numbers, and handle spot selling pressure. So from a hindsight perspective, even if no one shorted, the main force would probably still have to push up.
From the perspective of Chan Theory, the current daily level uptrend is no longer diverging at the 4H level. What does this mean? It means that after a 4H level pullback occurs, there will still be another 4H level uptrend, and then this daily level uptrend can complete. Let's not talk about whether the next 4H level bounce can break the 104300 high, but from a timing perspective, this daily level downtrend won't come out so quickly.
2. I hope the chicken father gives the bears a little confidence.
Regarding this point, I want to clarify that actually on April 22, after Bitcoin rapidly rose to 93800, my thinking about the larger cycle had already changed; I no longer viewed it as a bear market. So many people say I am the 'father of the bears', but in fact, in my analysis on April 23, I also wrote, 'From a larger perspective, the thinking has to undergo a very large transformation', and I hope to position for spot and coin-based long positions after a daily level pullback is completed (as shown in the chart).
What has been criticized is actually 'if you believe the bull market is still on, why short?'
Regarding this question, I don't know how to answer it. From the perspective of structure and macroeconomic aspects, I think it should be shorted. Even if you send me back to April 23, after writing that analysis, I would still short. Because this daily level downtrend is highly likely to occur, and from the perspective of timing, it's not yet time for the main upward wave.
Or rather, didn't I see the bull market last year? I did see the bull market last year, but I actively built short positions at the end of August and September, which has nothing to do with my view of the bull market. I believe a deep daily level pullback will occur, falling from over 90,000 to over 80,000, looking down to 10,000 points; that's why I shorted, it's that simple.
So I acknowledge the stop loss for this medium-term short position, and I won't say 'hey, why short in a bull market, shorting in a big bull market, in the future, only going long'. You can short in a bull market too, but my short position this time was wrong; that's a different matter.
3. My short position hasn't hit the stop loss yet, the liquidation price is xxx, may I ask if I can get out of the position? What should I do now? How high will it go?
This question is quite complex. First of all, there is no doubt that the timing for the main upward wave's initiation is not now; it has already been pushed back to July. Therefore, before that, there will definitely be a daily level downtrend.
However, as time goes on, the target price for the short position keeps rising, and I can no longer see positions around 82000; the extreme would be around 86000, and there is a chance it can only reach 91000.
So if the entry point for the short position is not good, a more reasonable approach would be: when Bitcoin drops to the daily MA250/EMA250, go long to hedge. Then, during the sideways phase after the main upward wave is completed, close the long position to cover the short.
Or, in the next two weeks/three weeks, find a low point to stop loss; I'll explain the reason later.
As for how high it will go? We first need to consider what it means if it rises to 104300. It means that selling pressure at 100,000+ is not strong; those who bought spot above 100,000, and the 7.89 million have not sold, have held on. Normally, this group would sell to break even, but clearly they have greater desire.
On the other hand, from the perspective of chip distribution, there really isn't much pressure above. If I had to say, 109000 is a position, but beyond that, there are no chips left, you can only use Fibonacci to derive a consensus top, which isn't reliable.
Fundamentals:
Regarding the US stock market, the rebound is indeed very clearly facing resistance. I have mentioned before that there is significant resistance around 18000 for the Nasdaq, making it very difficult to break through all at once. As a result, from May 1st to now, the Nasdaq has basically been in a sideways state, constantly under the pressure of 18000 (resulting in Bitcoin rising from 94000 to 104000).
In fact, the recent rebound in the US stock market, besides relying on continuous buying from retail investors, is also partly due to large-scale repurchase plans from listed companies. Last week, S&P 500 component stocks announced a repurchase plan worth up to 192 billion dollars, which is also the highest weekly peak since 1995. However, even so, in the past two weeks, the Nasdaq has only remained sideways, without breaking through the 18000 resistance.
So, normally, the Nasdaq is expected to undergo a daily level decline around 18000, then end the weekly level decline that started from 20200, and subsequently begin a weekly level rebound. This rebound is unlikely to break through the previous high of 20200, but Bitcoin should break through.
I still want to say that, regardless, the expected value of this round of the bull market should be lowered; it shouldn't be viewed too high.
From the perspective of the American macro economy, in Q2 we will probably see some key consumer-related indicators showing growth, but that is due to the tariff policy promoted by Trump in Q1, which led consumers to initiate a wave of 'panic buying'. This panic buying may result in strong economic data in the short term, but this growth is unsustainable. In fact, the number of ships waiting to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles has shown signs of decline, which will lead to a slowdown in transportation activity, and widespread production halts due to a shortage of inputs.
Including the April employment data reflects the situation of the first two weeks of the month, prematurely reflecting the hiring and firing decisions made after the tariff announcement on April 2. It is expected that we will see the impact of hiring fatigue on employment as early as May and at the latest in June.
In terms of interest rates, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve does not necessarily lower US long-term bond yields. The transmission of monetary policy to the real economy is realized through borrowing rates, which primarily depend on long-term government bond yields rather than policy rates.
Currently, the market is speculating about a rate cut in July. For the Federal Reserve, a rate cut in July is correct because if the Fed cuts rates preemptively, it essentially determines that tariffs and expected fiscal easing policies will pose greater downside risks to economic growth. A rapid rate cut now would instead increase the risk that the Fed will have to reverse its policy and raise rates in a few months.
So whether it’s the weekly level rebound in the US stock market or the main upward wave of Bitcoin, they should both start in July.
Back to the market:
The first rate cut of this year is likely on July 31. Considering that the market will react in advance, the actual main upward wave should start in early July, and there should be a strong pull from July 31 to early August, followed by a daily level pullback. After the pullback, it will continue to rise in early August, ultimately peaking in September or October. Two weeks to a month after the peak, this round of the bull market will end.
So before the interest rate cut on July 31, there should still be three daily level structures to complete (up-down-up). That is, starting from 74500, the weekly uptrend should encompass seven daily level structures, and we are currently only on the first daily level uptrend, with a little over half a year left to go.
From a short-term perspective, next week, the weekly MACD will definitely have a golden cross.
So regardless of whether next week will rise or fall, there are two points that can be confirmed:
1. The bull market will definitely continue until the weekly indicators reach a high point.
2. It is highly probable that the next two weeks/three weeks will close bearish (especially if next week closes bullish).
Currently, the weekly chart has five consecutive positive closes, which is very rare; I acknowledge the loss. However, the more consecutive positive closes on the weekly chart, the greater the chance of a subsequent bearish close. Next week will see a bullish crossover on the weekly MACD, so let's not talk about whether next week will close positive or negative; at least the probability of a bearish close for the 1-2 candles following the MACD crossover is quite high.
That is to say, the probability of closing bearish in the next two weeks (May 19-25) and the following two weeks (May 26-June 1) is very high. So there is an opportunity for short-term shorting here.
Especially if next week closes positive, then the weekly chart will have six consecutive positive closes, combined with a weekly MACD golden cross, the following weeks will basically definitely see a decline.
Assuming we can pull up to around 109000 next week, we can set 110000 as the stop loss, shorting down to around 102000, shorting 7000-8000 points is not a big issue.
However, if you want to buy spot/coin-based contracts to go long, at least you should position at the daily MA250/EMA250. I did incur a loss this time, with significant losses, but chasing highs and cutting losses will lead to disaster; even if you can win now, this method is definitely not the right one.
On operations:
1. Short-term:
Since the weekly MACD will golden cross next week, the next two weeks/three weeks are highly likely to close bearish. If Bitcoin can rise to around 109000 next week, there will be a good short entry opportunity. Short at 109000, stop loss at 110000, take profit at 102000, the risk-reward ratio and win rate will be quite good.
2. On the medium-term:
When Bitcoin pulls back to the daily MA250, buy spot (Bitcoin 50%, SOL 30%, altcoins 20%), when it hits the EMA250, open a 1% position with 100x leverage coin-based long position, and at the daily MA350 add another 2% position with 100x coin-based long position. Take profits on long positions during the sideways phase after the main upward wave is completed, temporarily not setting a target.
Here I would like to remind you again to avoid buying ETH spot; although ETH has performed strongly in the past two days, there is a lot of spot selling pressure above 2400, not to mention that there is a lot of selling pressure at the 2800 position, which sets an upper limit for the high of ETH in this round of the bull market. SOL has also fallen a lot from its high but hasn't concentrated a lot of chips above 200, which is much better than ETH's situation.
3. On the long-term:
In the sideways phase after the main upward wave in Q3 is completed, I will gradually build a long-term short position, with long-term shorts taking profit at 82500.
4. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL.