Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (04.23)

Summary:

1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but continuous crashes are unrealistic. Currently, it has dropped to around the Fibonacci 0.5 level, where there is a probability of an upward move for a weekly-level rebound.

2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.

3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is continually increasing.

4. A significant shift in the overall bull and bear outlook is required.

5. Pay close attention to the 94900 level; if it holds, the daily level will end upwards, followed by a downward move at the daily level.

6. Daily level downward targets (84500/82000/78000)

7. For the weekly level, there are two possibilities for upward movement: 5 waves or 7 waves, with a fast scenario in August and a slower one in October, targeting positions at 109000/119000/129000.

Actions:

1. Hold the short position at $BTC , with a take profit at 84500, and purchase Bitcoin spot. Allocate 1% leverage for a 100x Bitcoin-based long position; add another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Sell half of the long position at 106000, and maintain the remaining position until 118000, with a stop loss at the MA60 if the weekly level breaks down.

2. For $SOL /$ETH , synchronize with Bitcoin; the short position for SOL is at 157/162, and for ETH, it's around 1848. Close the short and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 level. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; prefer SOL instead. The reason is that many people bought Ethereum at 3000+ positions last year, waiting for Ethereum's rebound. Even after multiple top-ups, their average cost is still above 2500, creating significant selling pressure here. The chances of Ethereum rising to 2800 are minimal, while it is likely to face resistance around 2400.

On the other hand, SOL can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with an expected height between 265-295, and it will not go below 210. Close half of the Bitcoin-based long position at 214 and start moving the stop loss upwards, exiting completely at 273.

3. Altcoin Targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK

Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, there is a high probability of an altcoin rally, with the current altcoin season index at 14, which is also quite suitable; simply wait for Bitcoin to retrace to the desired level for buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit gradually.