Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (05.02)

Summary:

1. The April rebates are expected to be fully distributed by tomorrow at the latest.

2. The long-term bear market for the dollar is irreversible, lasting at least around 2 years; a brief stabilization does not indicate a reversal.

3. Demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening, while there are significant bond issuance plans in May and June.

4. A detailed discussion on gold.

5. U.S. stocks are different from cryptocurrencies; cryptocurrencies still have the potential to break previous highs this year, whereas the long-term bear market for U.S. stocks has not yet ended.

6. The rise in natural gas has already started; a pullback is a buying opportunity.

7. Regardless of whether the non-farm payrolls are good or bad, it will just be a long upper shadow; it seems we should start a downtrend on the daily chart from here.

Operations:

1. Holding a short position on $BTC , take profit at 84500, and buy Bitcoin spot, set up a 1% leveraged 100x Bitcoin long position, add 1% at 82500, and another 1% at 78000. Take half of the long position at 106000, and let the remaining position target 118000, with a stop-loss if the weekly candlestick closes below MA60.

(The next downtrend for Bitcoin on the daily chart could strongly replicate the wave from late August to early September last year, or more mildly replicate the wave from late September to early October last year, but it will definitely move down. Currently, the most ideal scenario seems to be a three-stage decline: first to 84500, then a rebound to 90000, and finally a drop to 82500 to finish.)

2. Holding a short position on $ETH $SOL ; when Bitcoin hits the 84500 level, close the short and buy spot. For spot and Bitcoin long positions, do not choose ETH, go for SOL. The expected price range for SOL is between 265-295, and it will not go below 210. Close half of the Bitcoin long position at 214 and start moving the stop loss upwards, selling all at 273.

3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK. Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500.