1. Key positions and trend interpretation
Background of the breakdown in the consolidation zone: Ethereum has broken below the recent consolidation range bottom (assuming the original range was 1785-XX), with short-term bears taking the initiative; the night’s trend needs to pay attention to the rebound strength's potential correction to the trend.
1. Rebound strength boundary: 1785
- Technical significance: This position is the bottom of the consolidation zone and the dividing line of bullish and bearish at the hourly level. If the hourly closing cannot stabilize above 1785, it indicates insufficient rebound momentum, and bearish pressure may continue; if it stabilizes, a short-term stop to the decline may occur, starting a rebound cycle.
- Market logic: 1785 is both a previous support level and a densely trapped area; a breakout requires accompanying volume, or it may easily form a 'false rebound and true bullish trap.'
2. Lower support steps
- First support: 1756
Near recent lows, if the rebound fails, bearish positions may directly probe this area, opening up downward space after a breakdown.
- Deep support: 1730-1695
1730 dollars is an integer level and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, while 1695 dollars is near the April low; the extreme target for bears may reach here.
3. Upper pressure steps
- First resistance: 1808
In the middle of the consolidation zone, an initial rebound needs to break through this point to confirm bullish strength.
- Key resistance: 1830-1848
1830 is near the 50-day moving average, and 1848 is the top of the consolidation zone; a breakthrough may indicate the possibility of trend reversal.
2. Scenario-based operational strategies
1. Scenario one: Hourly closing does not stabilize above 1785
- Signal confirmation: If the rebound meets resistance and falls below 1785, the candlestick presents bearish patterns such as long upper shadows, engulfing bearish candlesticks, etc.
- Operational suggestions:
- Short positions can be arranged at highs, with targets sequentially at 1756 and 1730, and stop loss set above 1795.
- Bulls should not enter for now, waiting for clear signals to stop the decline (e.g., a bullish candlestick with volume at the bottom or MACD divergence).
2. Scenario two: Hourly closing stabilizes above 1785
- Signal confirmation: A bullish candlestick closes above 1785 with volume increasing compared to the preceding bearish candlestick.
- Operational suggestions:
- Short-term long positions can follow, with the first target at 1808; after breaking through, move the stop loss to 1780 and look further at 1830.
- If encountering resistance at 1808 and falling back, one can reduce positions to take profits, and wait for confirmation of support at 1785 before deciding whether to increase positions.
3. Risk warnings and response points
- Position management: Breakout market fluctuations are dramatic, it is suggested to control single position size at 5%-8% to avoid chasing highs and cutting lows.
- Beware of false bearish/bullish signals: During the night, liquidity is low, making it easy for prices to be briefly pushed up or down; it can be combined with 15-minute candlesticks to confirm the validity of breakouts (e.g., if two consecutive candlesticks stabilize at a key level).
- Interconnected effects: Ethereum's trend often follows Bitcoin (BTC), so it is necessary to pay attention to BTC's battle over 94100; if Bitcoin continues to weaken, the risk of Ethereum breaking down will increase.
4. Summary
Core contradiction: Whether Ethereum can recover 1785 after breaking down is key to the night’s trend; if it cannot hold, the bearish trend will continue, but if it stabilizes, a rebound from overselling is expected.
Trading mantra:
- If the rebound does not exceed 1785, bearish pressure continues downward; first look at 1756 after breaking down, and deeper probing may look at 1700.
- Stabilizing above 1785, bulls will test resistance; breaking through 1808 will push up to the 1830 level.
It is recommended that traders use the hourly chart as the main reference period, combined with indicators like RSI (whether the oversold area is turning) and MACD (whether the green bars are shortening) to judge changes in bullish and bearish strength, while setting stop losses and take profits appropriately to avoid emotional trading.$ETH #ETH走势分析 
