1. Bullish Continuation Scenario: Support at 2382 is valid, upward trend is expected.
If during the night pullback process, Ethereum price continues to stabilize above 2382, and meets the following conditions, it can be determined that bullish strength dominates, and the market is expected to continue rising:
1. K-line Pattern Confirmation: Typical bullish patterns such as small bullish candles, hammer candles, bottom engulfing, etc., appear at the 1-2 hour level, or form technical patterns like 'double bottom' or 'W bottom', indicating market buying actively absorbs selling pressure.
2. Volume Coordination Verification: Trading volume increases by 20%-30% compared to the previous trading session, and presents a 'price increase and volume increase' healthy state, reflecting continued capital inflow into the market, providing momentum for the rise.
3. Technical Indicator Resonance:
- MACD: Forms a golden cross below the zero line, and the histogram turns from green to red, indicating that short-term momentum shifts from weak to strong;
- RSI: Breaks above 50 and stabilizes, showing that bullish strength dominates the market;
- Moving Average System: Short-term moving averages (such as 5/10 moving averages) cross above medium to long-term moving averages, forming a bullish arrangement.
Upward Target Planning:
- First Resistance: 2450, this point is both a recent high and a previous dense trading area, breaking through will open up short-term upward space;
- Secondary Resistance: If stable at 2450, pay attention to 2490, this is a key psychological level and technical resistance;
- Ultimate Target: After a strong breakout at 2490, 2550 may become the ultimate target for bulls, this price level has strong resistance attributes in historical trends.
Trading Strategy:
- Entry: After confirming the price stabilizes at 2382 and meets the above signals, lightly engage in long positions, with position control at 10%-15% of total funds;
- Holding: Use a 'ladder-style take profit' strategy, reducing positions by 30% to lock in profits at each resistance level breakthrough;
- Stop Loss: When breaking below 2382 by 30-50 points (around 2332-2352), decisively stop loss and exit to avoid losses from trend reversals.
2. Bearish Dominated Scenario: Support at 2382 is broken, increasing the risk of a pullback.
Once the 1-2 hour K-line candle body effectively breaks below 2382, and is accompanied by the following characteristics, it indicates that the bears will dominate the market, entering a pullback phase:
1. Break Confirmation: Two consecutive K-line closing prices fall below 2382, and the lower shadow is short, indicating strong selling pressure from bears;
2. Increased Volume: Trading volume surges to more than 1.5 times the recent average, forming a panic sell-off trend of 'price drop and volume increase';
3. Technical Indicators Weaken:
- MACD: Forms a death cross above the zero line, with the histogram turning from red to green;
- RSI: Falls below 50, the market enters a weak zone;
- Bollinger Bands: Price breaks below the middle band and the middle band begins to turn downwards.
Downward Support Analysis:
- First Support: 2320, as the bottom of the short-term sideways range, if lost, will trigger a technical breakout;
- Secondary Support: Further attention to 2270, this position is key support in the previous oscillation center;
- Strong Support Level: In extreme cases, 2203 may trigger capital entry for bottom fishing, forming strong support.
Trading Strategy:
- Entry: After effectively breaking below 2382, establish short positions in the direction of the trend, with position control at 10%-15%;
- Holding: Gradually reduce positions after reaching support levels, such as reducing 30% at 2320, and further reducing 30% if breaking below 2270;
- Stop Loss: When breaking above 2382 by 30-50 points (around 2412-2432), immediately stop loss to prevent bear traps.
3. Sideways Fluctuation and Risk Control Strategy
1. Sideways Response: If the price oscillates within the range of 2382±50 points and there is no clear breakout signal (such as three consecutive K-line closing prices breaking the range boundary), it is recommended to stay out of the market and avoid chasing highs and lows.
2. Avoid Major Events: Within 2 hours before and after major events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and blockchain industry policy releases, market volatility increases and uncertainty is extremely high, pause trading to avoid risks.
3. Indicator Contradiction Handling: When technical indicators show contradictory signals (such as bullish moving average arrangement but MACD death cross), do not participate in trading blindly, wait for signals to unify before acting.
4. Strategy Summary and Risk Warning
The core contradiction of the Ethereum night market focuses on the 2382 point: stabilizing above this point, the bullish trend continues; effective breaking below indicates a bearish dominated pullback. Investors need to strictly follow the above multi-dimensional signals, combined with position management and risk control to execute trading strategies.$ETH #ETH走势分析 
