Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, warned about the growing threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin (BTC), emphasizing that the risk may be more significant than many imagine.
Thorn highlighted that while a quantum attack would affect all forms of public key cryptography and, by extension, all cryptocurrencies, potential solutions to protect Bitcoin are still not the best.
How is quantum computing a threat to Bitcoin?
To contextualize, quantum computing threatens Bitcoin by having the potential to break its cryptographic security. This includes elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and hash functions like SHA-256. Quantum computers could derive private keys from public ones, allowing unauthorized access.
Although quantum-resistant cryptography is under development, the timeline for a fully secure solution remains uncertain. Despite this, not everyone is convinced of the effectiveness of the solutions to protect Bitcoin.
Quantum is a greater threat than people realize, and the options to fix it specifically for Bitcoin are worse than people imagine, Thorn posted.
When asked about a possible timeline for the emergence of this threat, Thorn acknowledged that no one really knows, making it one of the most challenging questions in the field.
This is a matter of 'national security', he stated.
He also suggested that when this happens, it will already be too late to respond. His latest concerns resonated with many.
Quantum computing could transform blockchain by 2030.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, reaffirmed his previous position. He noted that Bitcoin, like any technology, has the potential for vulnerabilities that may arise over time and advancements.
There is a non-zero chance that Bitcoin could be hacked. If it can be created, it can be destroyed, Geraci added.
Furthermore, some have taken a firmer stance, predicting that quantum computing could lead to the eventual downfall of Bitcoin.
The right time to invest in Bitcoin was before 2020. I am intensely researching the next asset similar to this cryptocurrency, analyst Nishant Bhardwaj commented.
Meanwhile, these concerns have intensified due to recent developments in quantum technology. Chirag Jetani, founder and COO of Diamante, recently highlighted that Google's quantum computers now operate 241 million times faster than conventional ones.
A quantum computer with just 4,000 qubits could break Bitcoin's cryptography in 10 minutes. By 2030, they will break Bitcoin's cryptography in seconds, he said.
Jetani also suggests that despite the risks of quantum computing, it offers tremendous opportunities. He outlined five ways it will transform blockchain by 2030.
Quantum-Resistant Cryptography: this involves the development of secure cryptography against quantum computers. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on this.
Quantum-Enhanced Smart Contracts: quantum computing could allow for smarter contracts, adapting in real-time for faster autonomous decisions.
Quantum Random Number Generation: the blockchain could use quantum randomness for secure voting, fair games, and tamper-proof processes.
Secure Identity Systems by Quantum: quantum computing could ensure unbreakable digital identities, protecting personal data and privacy.
DeFi Powered by Quantum: quantum computing could enhance DeFi with instant payments, advanced financial modeling, and real-time risk assessment.
You need to start moving your assets to quantum-resistant systems now. Because by 2030, it will be too late, Jetani warned.
Will Bitcoin survive quantum computing?
Project 11, a quantum computing research company, also emphasized that quantum computers representing a real threat to proof of work are not expected for at least 10 years. According to the company, while Bitcoin is vulnerable to future advancements in quantum computing, it has the potential to evolve and survive through technological upgrades and adaptations.
BTC can absolutely survive quantum computing. It will be difficult, controversial, and debated, but the network can be updated in time. The last significant fork was Taproot – post-quantum cryptography is the next step, the company explained.
In its thread on X, Project 11 pointed to the development of quantum-resistant algorithms to protect against attacks. It highlighted that NIST has developed several standards, including those based on lattice and hash.
Additionally, the company noted that several libraries are available to implement Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). However, signature sizes, transactions per second (TPS), and block size can pose challenges.
The company also clarified that while quantum computers cannot instantly steal Bitcoin, early capable systems may still be enough to compromise private keys over time.
The security and validity of Bitcoin rests on current cryptography, which Shor's algorithm breaks. Even a slow QC can accumulate private keys, and its mere existence can trigger an exodus, the post stated.
Over time, Bitcoin's survival depends on its ability to rapidly evolve in response to quantum advancements. It needs to balance innovation while preserving its decentralized ethos.
The article Analyst warns that quantum threat to Bitcoin is more serious than expected was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
