First, looking back at yesterday, the range of liquidity for the three-day liquidation mentioned yesterday (95800-96300 and 92500-93300) suggests that regardless of which side the price breaks before noon on Monday, a small rebound can be made..
And so it came.. After the liquidation, there was a rebound taking advantage of the short liquidation liquidity.. Truly taking advantage of the low liquidity before the US stock market opens.... (Image 1)
Looking ahead to this week.. This week will face various major news events, and significant fluctuations are coming..
1 Late tonight, in the early hours of tomorrow, Arizona's bill regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves may undergo a final vote, and if it does not pass, there won't be much reaction (after all, many states have not passed it before) If it passes tonight, it will be a significant boost in sentiment, leading to a surge..
2 Major data points on Wednesday: Q1 GDP, April ADP non-farm payrolls, and March core PCE index..
GDP is of utmost importance, currently predicted at 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 2.4%.. This indicates that the US economy is showing signs of recession in GDP forecasts.. Recession is the biggest risk that the market is concerned about..
So even if the actual announcement is equal to or slightly greater than 0.4%, the market will still view the future economy pessimistically.. If it is far below 0.4%, then the US stock market will see a plunge.. But if the US stock market really plunges, whether Bitcoin will follow is uncertain. Based on previous tendencies of tech stocks, it would fall. However, recently there has been some narratives around risk aversion, and last week's influx of 3 billion in Q1 funds suggests that big money does not lie when it comes to spending, which can also be understood..
The PCE mainly affects inflation.. It is one of the data points the Federal Reserve is most concerned about.. It will influence the Fed's decision-making for the May interest rate meeting..
3 Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday.. Currently, both major and minor non-farm data does not look good, and the job market is somewhat sluggish. Although low employment raises expectations for rate cuts, low employment also increases recession expectations.. The impact of specific news will depend on the actual data..
4 In the US stock market, the major tech stocks that have the greatest impact on the entire market, the 'Magnificent Seven' including Meta (after Wednesday's close), Microsoft (after Wednesday's close), Apple (after Thursday's close), and Amazon (after Thursday's close) will all release earnings reports.. This will impact the US stock market (Google's earnings report last week looked good)
So, in summary, under the data-driven context this week, there may be significant fluctuations up and down.. At the same time, there may be expectations for funds to exit early for risk avoidance.. Overall, it is best to take profits when available and avoid being overly optimistic..
On the order flow, there are over 2000 short positions hanging near 96000 in the contract market.. Looking at the order book, after being slightly bullish at 9W3, it has now entered an extremely bearish state at 9W5....
From today's operations, after completing last night's 93000 wave, we are now back near the densely packed area around 9W5.. It feels like it's about time.. We might see the liquidation range mentioned yesterday of 95800-96300..
Make a move, insert a needle, liquidate, and then turn back down.. This is the scenario I envision.. After all, the trapped positions above 9W6 are still quite strong. To truly break through this range will require significant news (for example, if the strategic reserve bill passes tonight, or if several data points on Wednesday exceed expectations)
The preliminary support looks at the densely packed area near 9W4
