Negative GDP growth... The probability of a recession is skyrocketing. But why is capital aggressively buying $BTC ?

All the data came out today. The non-farm payroll data is very poor, employment is not good... By analogy, the non-farm payroll data on Friday is expected to be not very good as well...

(Poor employment is a sign of economic recession expectations, but if employment collapses, it might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early)

The GDP for the first quarter is directly negative growth... The flash crash in US stocks has also dragged down Bitcoin... It has collapsed to this extent that even Trump can't bear it anymore and has to shift the blame to Biden...

Fortunately, the PCE at 10 o'clock is 2.6, slightly lower than last month's 2.8... This indicates some improvement in inflation (however, this is still before the tariffs...)

Fortunately, the PCE held up a bit; otherwise, if all three data points were empty, we might have already seen 91,000...

So far, the short-term bulls cannot find a good narrative... On tariffs, we continue to show no signs of softening, and there are more signs of recession in the macro data, which have already been implemented before the tariffs...

Moreover, our current stance is also very hard; we can only talk after canceling all the additions... With so many additions, thinking about negotiating by only canceling part (like the other 90 days of grace) is out of the question... For Trump, it’s also a difficult position...

I’m quite interested in today’s ETF data. In this situation, is capital still pouring in or is there outflow... Before the ETF data comes out today, I’m not very keen on operating...

In the order flow, after the GDP data was released, 1,000 Bitcoins' market sell orders dropped 1,500 points, but after rebounding, there were another 400 market sell orders around 93,800, which didn’t move the market... There are also whales buying at around 93,800...

In the context of a bearish view on GDP recession, why is capital entering the market to buy?

If we really have to think of a reason, it’s that the macro data will indeed get worse if this continues, so the probability of Trump softening is increasing? So the expectations of the capital entering the market now are either that Trump successfully pressures the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates/expanding the balance sheet... or that the Federal Reserve and we successfully pressure Trump to soften?

This may be a medium-term bullish narrative...

In any case... we’ll talk about it tomorrow; let’s just watch today...