I gave an advance warning on Monday. Today is a day when GDP, PCE, and ADP data will be released in a concentrated manner. It will also be a day of market divergence (volatility).
Currently, there is the greatest divergence among researchers from major institutions regarding GDP, with predictions ranging from -2.7 to positive 0.4. Market expectations are also divided; some say there will be significant volatility when the news comes out, while others indicate that the market has already priced in an expectation below the previous value of 2.4. Whether it's 0.2 or -0.2, it's still below 2.4. There won't be significant volatility. After all, it's just a matter of institutions arguing with each other; we retail investors should not get involved.
From the candlestick patterns and liquidity for liquidation, I maintain my views from the past few days. Above 95,000, it has already tested five or six times. The liquidity for shorts around 96,000 is very large and easily reachable, just a matter of 1,000 points above 95,000. Similarly, if we want to liquidate the same magnitude of longs, we need to drop to 92,000. However, despite this, there are also divergent views in the market. One viewpoint is that with today's positive news, there could be a brief spike above 96,000 in liquidity, then turn downward. But there's also the view that recalling two weeks ago, at 85,000, there were countless tests, and after the shorts were liquidated and liquidity accumulated explosively, the bulls, under the stimulus of news, directly jumped to above 90,000.
Well, doesn't that cover both bullish and bearish perspectives? Yes. The two technical paths can be said to be truly 50/50, as there are countless examples in the past for either path. This is the title for today; today is a day where both bulls and bears have their reasons. The data on the news front serves as a catalyst.
The same goes for ETFs. There has been a significant net inflow on Monday and Tuesday, with 590 million on Monday and 173 million on Tuesday. Such a large net inflow without any price movement is quite rare for ETFs since last year. If you have a bearish view, it could mean that the buying pressure is being absorbed; if you have a bullish view, it means that the big funds are not fooling you. The big funds have all entered the market.
Regarding U.S. stocks, yesterday's rebound broke the recent high; let's see if it can hold today. The mainstream view on U.S. stocks is still that it's a dead cat bounce, and there may be a larger drop ahead. Personally, I tend to lean towards this view. Yesterday, we released a short video titled 'Not Kneeling.' You could say it's akin to a 'Declaration Against America' like the previous white paper. This time we won't easily soften our stance; if we don't soften, the old problems will definitely continue. Yesterday, there was news that Walmart told our suppliers to continue shipping, adding tariff costs to consumer prices. Amazon also hinted at showing consumers the tariff costs, which upset Trump. A few times, Trump mentioned that negotiations had begun, but we firmly denied it. So, if this continues, once the inflation data comes out in April or May, it will surely explode. At that time, a final drop in U.S. stocks is not impossible. As for Bitcoin, it can be inferred similarly; it just remains uncertain how high this rebound in U.S. stocks will go. (One viewpoint is that if the S&P stays above 5,700 without breaking, it indicates the possibility of a reversal rather than just a rebound.)
Alright, after saying so much, let's return to the operational thoughts.
Personally, I think it's best to just watch the market and not make any trades. But if you really feel the urge, there are two approaches to consider. However, the risk is high.
1. Continuing from yesterday, set a sell order around 96,500 in advance. Just take advantage of this liquidity rebound story. Looking back at 94,000, if it breaks 98,000, it's time to run.
2. Aggressive buys around 94,000 to 94,500. This is just to play a short-term scalp based on positive data, aiming for above 96,000. If it breaks below 93,000, it's time to run.
