After the panic from yesterday's GDP data, this recovery was too aggressive... I researched for over an hour and found that everyone was looking for reasons only after the market started to recover...

Currently, there are a few points to consider: 1. Although the composite GDP is negative, it was dragged down by imports, with excessive imports in the first quarter leading to a decline in GDP... The excess imports were a response to tariffs... GDP data will likely improve significantly in the second quarter after normalizing imports. 2. There is a good internal demand figure in the GDP report, showing growth of 3%, indicating the economy is still okay... 3. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP + unemployment rate reports are needed for a final conclusion of economic recession...

Anyway... regardless of how the analysis goes afterward, let's return to the market...

(By the way, as I write this, Bitcoin is surging towards 95,800, and I'm struggling to keep up with its speed!)

Following up on what was mentioned yesterday, macro data is bearish, but funds are entering the market. How to understand this contradiction... The subsequent proof shows that it is still the funds voting with their money that determines the direction... Yesterday's ETF data also showed a divergence, with a total outflow of 50 million dollars from Bitcoin ETFs, but BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of 267 million... (The inflows on Monday and Tuesday were also led by BlackRock, while other ETFs experienced outflows) Also, after the dip yesterday, signs of capital accumulation were seen around 93,800... Overall, the funds are still leaning towards bullish...

From the order flow perspective, from 94,200 yesterday to the current 95,700, the spot CVD is positive by 1,000, with active buying dominating, price is going up, which aligns with normal behavior with no abnormalities.

The only concern is that the liquidity for short liquidations has accumulated to a peak around 96,000 for the past month... I mentioned yesterday that there are two possible outcomes for this wave of liquidity: 1. Either the short liquidity is exhausted, and then pressured down by the selling pressure above 97,000. 2. Or if the accumulation of short liquidations is high enough and there is enough fuel, it could directly break out of the previous trapped range... Just like around 86,000 last month...

This is similar to a spring; when you pull a spring harder, it rebounds more vigorously (this corresponds to scenario 1, a strong reversal after being beaten down). However, if you pull hard enough to break the spring, it will act like a runaway horse (this corresponds to scenario 2 above).

From an operational perspective, we cannot predict before it actually moves. If we agree with the second scenario, then the idea is to go long between 94,000 and 95,000.

If we agree with the first scenario, then continue with yesterday's thought to short near 96,500 and exit at 98,000.

Done... I was just saying it was surging towards 95,800... Now that I finished writing and looked back, it has already touched 96,300... This wave today is going to be a hindsight play...

So let's leave it at that... I'm done writing...

Lastly, a reminder to be cautious of the non-farm payroll data risk tomorrow... Employment is likely to be poor...