1. Moving average pattern (validated over multiple periods)
◦ 15-minute chart: EMA(60) 1,777.31 and EMA(125) 1,762.61 are horizontally combined, with the price close to the Bollinger Band upper band (1,777.31), showing short-term bullish fluctuations.
◦ 4-hour chart: EMA(60) 1,739.48 and EMA(125) 1,694.96 form a bearish arrangement, but the price is stable at the middle band (1,761.39), in the 'critical area between bulls and bears'.
◦ Conclusion: Short-term fluctuations are neutral, waiting for directional selection.
2. Price trend and key support/resistance
◦ Trend: The daily level is still in a downward channel (1,770-1,721), but the 4-hour level price is close to the Bollinger Band middle band (1,761.39), with increased demand for oversold rebounds.
◦ Support/Resistance:
▪ Support: 1,745.48 (Bollinger Band lower band), 1,732.32 (EMA60);
▪ Resistance: 1,777.31 (Bollinger Band upper band), 1,780.31 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level).
◦ Contradiction point: Short-term overbought correction vs. medium-term trend suppression.
3. Overbought/oversold and reversal signals
◦ K-line pattern: A 'long upper shadow' appears in the 15-minute cycle (around 1,777.31), suggesting bearish resistance; the 4-hour cycle forms a 'doji', increasing the probability of a reversal.
◦ Indicator verification:
▪ RSI (14 periods) reaches 70 (overbought) on the 15-minute chart, with a top divergence on the 4-hour RSI;
▪ MACD (4-hour) DIF and DEA are narrowing, red bars are reducing in volume, and upward momentum is weakening.
◦ Conclusion: There exists a short-term need for correction, but it needs to fall below 1,745.48 to confirm validity.
4. Buying and selling power and capital flow
◦ Volume: The last K-line on the 15-minute chart has reduced to 4,595.57, indicating weakened bullish momentum;
◦ Funding rate (FP): 1.77K, close to zero, balanced long and short positions, market sentiment is neutral.
Trading instructions
1. Trade direction: Open short (light position trial order).
2. Execution rationale:
◦ Technical logic:
▪ 15-minute long upper shadow + 4-hour RSI top divergence, short-term overbought correction probability > 60%;
▪ Price is close to the Bollinger Band upper band (1,777.31) and Fibonacci resistance level (1,780.31), with controllable stop-loss space (risk about 1.2%);
▪ Target 1,745.48 (Bollinger Band lower band) + 1,732.32 (EMA60), profit-loss ratio > 2:1.
◦ Market environment: Continuation of bearishness after unsuccessful rebounds in a major downward trend, strict stop-loss is required.
3. Confidence level: 7/10 (need to be cautious of the 4-hour level Bollinger Band middle band support).
4. Stop-loss price: 1,780 (1 dollar above the Fibonacci retracement level, reasonable margin of error).
5. Take-profit price: 1,732 (48 dollars away from stop-loss, risk-reward ratio 1:2.6).
6. Trailing stop percentage: 0.0005 (if the price falls below 1,745.48, activate the trailing stop to lock in profits).
Strategy execution details
• Opening timing: Wait for a 15-minute K-line to close bearish below 1,761.39 (Bollinger Band middle band) to confirm the bearish signal.
• Position management:
◦ If the price stabilizes at 1,777.31, open a long position to target 1,780;
◦ If the price falls below 1,745.48, increase the short position to target 1,732.
• Market state adaptation: Currently at the end of the fluctuation range, suitable for short-term reversal strategies, avoiding overnight gap risks.
Risk warning
• Core contradiction: Short-term overbought correction vs. medium-term downward trend continuation.
• Invalid condition: If the 4-hour level breaks through 1,780.31, the trend turns bullish, stop-loss and reverse.
• Alternative solution: If the price does not fall below 1,761.39, and a bullish engulfing pattern appears on the 15-minute chart, hold short and observe.
I took the last order and ran.
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