1. Trading Direction: Short Position
2. Execution Reason:
◦ Trend Resonance: 2-hour and 10-fold moving averages are in bearish alignment + 4-hour EMA5 breaks down, forming multi-cycle bearish resonance.
◦ Momentum Verification: Three Black Crows pattern + Bollinger Bands opening downward, MACD histogram negative value expanding (Figure 3: -5.55).
◦ Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop-loss at 1,775 (upper edge of resistance zone), take profit at 1,725 (previous low and Fibonacci 61.8% support), risk-reward ratio 1:2.5 (stop-loss 50 points, take profit 125 points).
◦ Volatility Adaptation: 1.5 times ATR (28.5 points) covers the stop-loss range (42.75 points).
3. Confidence Level: 8 (clear bearish trend but short-term rebound should be watched).
4. Stop-Loss Price: 1,775 (4-hour EMA5 + order flow dense area).
5. Take-Profit Price: 1,725 (2-hour Bollinger Band lower band + Fibonacci support).
6. Trailing Stop-Loss Percentage: 0.0006 (activated after price drops below 1,750, locking in 0.6% pullback profit).
Strategy Logic Supplement
1. Key Verification Point:
◦ Bullish Counterattack: If the price breaks through 1,775 with increased volume and RSI6 stabilizes above 65, need to stop-loss and observe.
◦ Bearish Acceleration: Target below 1,680 after breaking 1,744 (daily EMA50).
2. Market Environment:
◦ On-Chain Data: ETH whale addresses net out 120,000 coins in the last 24 hours, exchange stock increases by 3.2%! (MISSING) short-term selling pressure is significant.
◦ Macro Correlation: US tech stocks are pulling back, and risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market is declining.
Position Management Plan
• Opening Logic:
◦ 50% position enters at current price (1,771), 50% adds at 1,745 rebounding to 1,760.
• Dynamic Adjustment:
◦ If the 4-hour MACD shows a golden cross (DIFF > DEA), close 50% to lock in profits.
◦ After breaking 1,725, lower the take profit to 1,680, maintaining a risk-reward ratio ≥ 1:2.
Conclusion: Currently, ETH/USDT is in a multi-cycle bearish resonance phase, it is recommended to short with 1,775 as the stop-loss anchor point, targeting 1,725, strictly follow capital management rules.
