Moving Average Pattern (multi-timeframe validation)
15-Minute Chart: MA5/10/20 are horizontally aligned in the 149.84-150.36 range, with the price close to MA20 (chaotic 'alligator teeth'), short-term oscillation has no direction.
4-Hour Chart: MA60 (150.69) and MA125 (148.93) form a bearish arrangement, but the price stabilizes at MA20 (149.84), in the 'bull-bear critical zone'.
Conclusion: Short-term oscillation is neutral, waiting for directional choice.
Price Trend and Key Support Resistance
Trend: 12-Hour Chart: The price is in a descending channel (156.69-148.93), but a bottom divergence appears on the 4-hour level (MACD green bars decrease).
15-Minute Chart: Price is close to the 12-hour low of 149.84, with obvious oversold characteristics.
Support/Resistance: Support: 149.84 (12-hour closing price), 148.93 (12-hour low);
Resistance: 151.4 (1-hour high), 152.7 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level).
Contradiction: short-term oversold rebound vs medium-term downtrend suppression.
Oversold and Reversal Signals
Candlestick Pattern: 15-Minute Chart: Long lower shadow (149.84) + doji, suggesting bullish resistance;
4-Hour Chart: Hammer candle (149.84) + bottom divergence, increasing reversal probability.
Indicator Validation: RSI (14 period) on the 15-minute chart reaches 28 (oversold), 4-hour chart RSI shows a bottom divergence;
MACD (4-hour) DIF and DEA are narrowing, green bars decrease, and downward momentum is weakening.
Conclusion: There is a short-term rebound demand, but it needs to break through 151.4 to confirm validity.
Buying and Selling Power and Capital Flow
Trading Volume: 12-hour chart volume shrank to 303K (near the low), and downward momentum weakens;
The last candlestick on the 15-minute chart has decreased to 481K, and the bearish strength is exhausted.
Funding Rate (FP): -0.03%, long and short positions are balanced, market sentiment is neutral.
Trading Instructions
Trading Direction: Long (light position trial order).
Execution Reason: Technical Logic: 12-hour hammer candle + 4-hour bottom divergence, short-term oversold rebound probability > 60%;
Price is close to the 12-hour low of 149.84 (strong support), and the stop-loss space is controllable (risk about 1.1%);
Target 151.4 (1-hour resistance) + 152.7 (Fibonacci level), risk-reward ratio > 2:1.
Market Environment: Betting on a rebound within a larger downtrend, strict stop-loss required.
Confidence Level: 7/10 (need to be wary of 12-hour moving average suppression).
Stop-Loss Price: 148.9 (0.03 dollars below the 12-hour low, with a reasonable margin of error).
Take Profit Price: 152.7 (3.8 dollars away from stop-loss, risk-reward ratio 1:3.4).
Trailing Stop Percentage: 0.0005 (if the price breaks 151.4, start trailing stop to lock in profits).
Strategy Execution Details
Opening Timing: Wait for a 15-minute candlestick to close with a bullish breakout above 150.36 (MA20) to confirm bullish signal.
Position Management: If the price stabilizes at 151.4, increase the position to the target of 152.7;
If the price falls below 148.9, immediately stop-loss reversal to open a short position (betting on trend continuation).
Market State Adaptation: Currently at the end of a converging oscillation, suitable for short-term reversal strategy, avoid overnight gap risks.
Risk Warning
Core Contradiction: short-term oversold rebound vs medium-term downtrend suppression.
Invalidation Condition: If the 12-hour level falls below 148.93, the trend turns bearish, and a stop-loss reversal is required.
Alternative Plan: If the price does not break through 150.36 and a bearish engulfing pattern appears on the 15-minute chart, close the long and wait.
