One, Comprehensive Analysis of Multi-Cycle Technical Patterns
1. Moving Average System and Price Position
• 4-Hour Chart:
◦ Moving Average Arrangement: MA(7) 93,294.3 → MA(25) 89,366.3 → MA(99) 84,582.8, with the price below all moving averages, indicating a clear bearish arrangement.
◦ Trend Signal: MA(7) strongly represses the price (current price 92,690.9 < MA(7) 93,294.3), with a bearish trend in the medium to long term.
• 1-Hour Chart:
◦ Moving Average Convergence: MA(7) 93,067.1 → MA(25) 93,428.0 → MA(99) 89,174.6, the price repeatedly tests the resistance of MA(7) (93,067.1), with insufficient short-term rebound momentum.
◦ Key Signals: MACD histogram bars continuously shrink (DIF 708.2 vs DEA 823.8), enhancing bearish pressure.
• 15-Minute Chart:
◦ Moving Average Suppression: MA(7) 92,662.2 → MA(25) 93,071.7 → MA(99) 93,431.8, the price continues to be under pressure from MA(25), with a weakening short-term structure.
2. Support and Resistance and Volatility
• Key Resistance:
◦ 4-Hour Level: MA(7) 93,294.3 (strong resistance) → Previous High 95,464.6 (psychological resistance).
◦ 1-Hour Level: MA(7) 93,067.1 (recent high).
• Key Support:
◦ 15-Minute Level: MA(99) 93,431.8 → Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 92,335.8.
◦ Volume Verification: High trading volume near 92,335.8, if it falls below, it may trigger selling pressure from stop-loss orders.
• Volatility Indicators:
◦ ATR (14): 1-Hour Chart Average True Range 71.5 points, 4-Hour Chart ATR 163.8 points, current volatility at mid-high levels.
3. Candlestick Combinations and Reversal Signals
• 4-Hour Chart:
◦ Shooting Star Pattern: The latest candlestick closed with a long upper shadow (high of 95,464.6→closing at 92,690.9), suggesting dominance of selling pressure.
◦ Three Methods of Decline: Three consecutive bearish candlestick bodies cover the previous day's gains, continuing the bearish trend.
• 1-Hour Chart:
◦ Evening Star: After the rebound high of 93,067.1, it closed with a 'Inverted Hammer + Bearish Candle' combination, confirming the failure of the reversal signal and the continuation of the decline.
• 15-Minute Chart:
◦ Three Black Crows Pattern: Three consecutive bearish candlestick bodies (93,071.7→92,664.0), with concentrated bearish momentum release.
4. Capital Flow and Buying and Selling Power
• Volume Distribution:
◦ 4-Hour Chart: During the rebound period (93,067.1→95,464.6), trading volume shrank to 12,000 contracts, while the decline segment (95,464.6→92,690.9) saw an increase to 48,000 contracts, with bears dominating.
◦ Order Flow Analysis: The depth chart shows sell orders accumulating above 93,294.3 (with 68% of the pending order volume), with bulls lacking breakthrough momentum.
• Funding Rate:
◦ Current Funding Rate -0.03%/hour, reflecting dominance of bearish positions in the futures market, with accelerated leverage trend continuation.
5. Position and Risk Control Status
• Hypothetical Scenario:
◦ Holding Long Positions: If current positions are at a floating loss, it is recommended to stop loss and reverse to open a short (logic explained below).
◦ Short Position Holding: Holders can maintain their position until the target, adjusting the stop loss dynamically.
Two, Trading Instructions
1. Trading Direction: Short
2. Execution Reason:
◦ Trend Resonance: 4-Hour Main Decline Wave + 1-Hour Rebound Exhaustion + 15-Minute Three Black Crows, multi-cycle bearish arrangements resonate.
◦ Momentum Verification: The Shooting Star + Evening Star pattern confirms selling pressure, and funding rates and order flow reinforce the bearish logic.
◦ Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop loss at 93,294.3 (above resistance), take profit at 92,335.8 (Fibonacci support), risk-reward ratio 1:3.2 (stop loss 704 points, take profit 2,357 points).
◦ Volatility Adaptation: 1.5 times ATR (71.5 points) covers the stop loss range (107.3 points), avoiding noise interference.
3. Confidence Level: 9 (based on multi-cycle trend and volume verification).
4. Stop Loss Price: 93,294.3 (4-Hour MA(7) + order flow dense area).
5. Take Profit Price: 92,335.8 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement + 15-minute MA(99) resistance).
6. Trailing Stop Percentage: 0.0007 (activated after the price falls below 92,664.0, locking in a 7% retracement profit).
Three, Strategy Logic Supplement
1. Key Verification Points:
◦ Bullish Counterattack: If the price breaks through 93,294.3 with increased volume (accompanied by an increase in open interest), stop loss and observe.
◦ Acceleration of Bears: After falling below 92,335.8, the target looks down to 91,427.2 (Fibonacci extension level).
2. Market Environment:
◦ Macro Bearish: Rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, liquidity contraction in the cryptocurrency market, and downward resonance between technical and fundamental aspects.
◦ Currency Correlation: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken key support, and panic sentiment is spreading in the derivatives market.
Four, Operational Suggestions
• Position Size: No more than 1% of account net worth, single trade risk ≤ 3%.
• Pending Order Strategy: Limit orders for entry (selecting opportunities within the range of 92,664.0→93,294.3), avoiding slippage on market orders.
• Dynamic Monitoring: Check order flow and funding rate changes every hour. If the funding rate rises above -0.01%, reduce positions and observe.
Conclusion: Currently, BTCUSD is in a strengthened bearish trend phase, suggesting to short to capture the downward wave, with a strict stop loss at 93,294.3 and a target of 92,335.8.$BTC
