Over the weekend, U.S. markets were closed, and Bitcoin experienced a rebound, breaking through $87,000.
What's the story behind this rise? Are the big players accumulating? What big move is the market brewing? Let's take a simple look.
Why did Bitcoin suddenly rebound?
This time, the main driver of Bitcoin's rise is MicroStrategy.
Yesterday, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stirred things up again. He released a Bitcoin tracker once more, and the market is guessing how much they will buy this time. Every time MicroStrategy makes a move, it brings a wave of market activity.
However, the overall market is a bit quiet at the moment.
Coinbase data shows that Bitcoin trading volume this weekend was 30% lower than other holidays in 2024, setting a new low in recent years.
In the past 24 hours, only about 33,000 BTC have transferred between addresses, indicating that many people are lying flat, with low trading enthusiasm and relatively low market liquidity.
Is the market this quiet because something big is brewing?
Although trading volume is low right now, on-chain data reveals some signals:
There are clear signs of price bottoming: Bitcoin is fluctuating in the $81,500-$87,000 range, with $83,000 being a strong support level in the short term. The candlestick pattern shows the bottom is becoming more solid, as if it is silently building energy.
Accumulation of buying power: In this price range, there is a holding of over 1.77 million BTC, far exceeding the holding amount during June 2024 when prices were between $60,000 and $70,000. This means many people have accumulated at this price level and are unwilling to sell easily, making the bottom quite solid.
High-position chips are calm: Those who bought coins in the $93,000-$98,000 range have a very high concentration of chips, with almost no signs of selling in the short term, indicating they are still optimistic about the future market.
So what are the big players doing? Is smart money accumulating?
On-chain indicators provide the answer:
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator: Currently at a 'green low', similar to the end of a bear market or the beginning of a bull market. What does it mean? Players who previously sold coins at the $100,000 high are starting to quietly accumulate coins again, which is a good signal, indicating that big players are optimistic about higher future prices.
Bitcoin cycle capital flow chart: When the price surged to $106,000 last December, newcomers chased high, and the market was euphoric. After the correction, newcomers were scared away, while 'veteran players' holding coins for 1-2 years were adding to their positions. This pattern is quite similar to the run-up before the 2020-2021 bull market, with the market concentrating on more experienced players.
Exchange BTC supply is decreasing: According to CryptoQuant data, there is less Bitcoin in exchanges, with many transferring coins to cold wallets in preparation for long-term holding, resulting in low selling pressure. Recently, the amount of BTC being transferred to exchanges has also significantly decreased, indicating that there aren't many sellers.
Whales are accumulating: 'High net worth investors' holding more than 10 BTC are continuously buying. For instance, one whale bought 2,949 Bitcoins worth $250 million within four days. In contrast, some small retail investors are reducing their holdings, with Bitcoin concentrating in long-term holders.
What's next?
Overall, Bitcoin's bottom is becoming more stable, big players are quietly accumulating, market sentiment is warming up, and short-term selling pressure is not significant.
Although the market is a bit 'boring' right now, this calm could be the calm before the storm.
Next, keep a close eye on the U.S. GDP data at the end of the month.
If the data exceeds expectations, market confidence will soar, and Bitcoin may push against the $90,000 resistance level.
But if the data is weak and risk aversion rises, U.S. stocks and risky assets like Bitcoin may continue to be under pressure, with short-term correction risks.
