In the past 24 hours, the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market have continued to rise, driven by the easing of Trump's tariff policies and dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
The Nasdaq index rose by 2.5%, and the S&P 500 index rose by 1.67%. Bitcoin reached $9,400, hitting a recent high.
The market's panic over tariffs has gradually subsided. Although news about the Sino-U.S. tariff struggle continues, the market has begun to adapt, and the reactions are not as intense anymore.
Important events in the past 24 hours:
1. Trump stated that tariffs on China will not reach 145% and will be significantly reduced.
2. Bessenet mentioned that a 'downgrade in relations with China' is imminent, but emphasized that 'America First' does not mean isolationism.
3. (The Wall Street Journal) reported that tariffs on China could drop to 50%-65%. Bessenet declined to comment on this report and clarified that Trump did not unilaterally lower tariffs.
4. Bessenet also predicted that a Sino-U.S. trade agreement may take 2-3 years to reach, and the market may continue to experience fluctuations in the short term.
For now, tariffs seem to be on hold, and the market's focus has shifted to whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession, making the GDP data to be released at the end of the month crucial.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for the first quarter from 0.4% to 0.1%. The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book also shows that, due to tariff uncertainties, the economy in some regions is starting to slow down. There may be a lack of upward momentum in the near future.
Currently, market liquidity is insufficient. The Federal Reserve has not yet begun to cut interest rates, nor has it halted balance sheet reduction, which is approximately $95 billion per month. The market is worried that tightening liquidity may exacerbate economic downturn pressures.
This is also one of the reasons I believe that this is just a rebound and not a reversal.
In the absence of new negative news, the market is likely to maintain high-level fluctuations. If Bitcoin can break through $100,000, it will open up new space for upward movement.
