This week, the market is going to make a big move! The latest GDP data, PCE inflation data, and tech stock earnings reports will all be released.
Will these data points disappoint? How will Bitcoin and U.S. stocks move? Will they rise or fall? Let's break it down together.
1. Is there any progress in the tariff negotiations? What is the market's reaction?
The good news is that there has been some movement in the tariff negotiations!
South Korea and India have already begun talks, and Japan and the U.S. also plan to continue discussions at the end of April or early May.
What about the most watched China-U.S. negotiations?
Although Trump hasn't made much noise, this week, the village's finance minister and central bank governor will attend the World Bank and IMF meetings in the U.S., likely leading to some low-level communications.
However, don't expect the China-U.S. negotiations to be the same as with other countries; the long-term trend of decoupling in China-U.S. relations has already been mentally prepared by the market.
So, even if there is no major breakthrough in the short term, as long as there is some small progress, market sentiment can improve a bit.
Negotiations with other countries, such as South Korea, will not be completed overnight, and the earliest delay will last until July.
This means that the tariff negotiations are a long-term battle, and there won't be major breakthroughs in the short term, but as long as there are small advancements, market sentiment can be stabilized.
2. Major earnings reports are coming, will there be any mishaps?
This week, four of the seven tech giants will report their earnings, along with the earnings report from MicroStrategy, a Bitcoin enthusiast company. These earnings reports will directly affect the sentiment in the U.S. stock market.
If tech giants perform well, U.S. stocks may continue to rise. But if the earnings reports are disappointing, they may drag down the market.
3. How is the economic data? Can it stabilize the market?
On Wednesday, the U.S. first-quarter GDP and March PCE data will be released.
GDP will reflect whether the U.S. economy is doing well; market expectations are low at only 0.4%. If it exceeds expectations, U.S. stocks and BTC may surge. But if the data is too poor, the market may retrace.
PCE data reflects inflationary pressures, and the tariff increase in March may drive up prices. If PCE rises sharply, the market may panic.
4. Is there hope for the Arizona Bitcoin bill?
In the early hours of Tuesday, Arizona will conduct its third reading on the Bitcoin state strategic reserve and may vote directly. If passed, it will be sent to the governor for approval.
Once approved, Arizona will become the first state in the U.S. to treat BTC as a strategic reserve.
This is different from Trump's national strategic reserve. Trump said taxpayer money cannot be used to buy BTC, but Arizona can directly buy Bitcoin with up to 10% of its fiscal or retirement funds.
Although the short-term purchases may not be substantial, this matter is of great significance.
Why? Because a spot ETF only makes it easier for institutions and retail investors to buy Bitcoin, while state governments buying directly means an official endorsement of Bitcoin!
More importantly, once the first state takes the lead, it will be easier for other states to follow, which could trigger a domino effect.
In the long term, this will boost Bitcoin's demand and market confidence.
5. What is Trump planning next?
Trump has recently started taking action again. He has tied tax cuts to tariffs, hoping to offset the price increases caused by tariffs with tax cuts, and may even exempt certain groups from taxes.
The tax cuts primarily target individuals with an annual income below 200,000 dollars, and specifically include the upper middle class earning between 100,000 and 200,000, aiming to gain more voter support.
Trump's strategy is to raise prices through tariffs while reducing taxes so that the public spends less, alleviating inflationary pressure.
At the same time, high tariffs force foreign companies to build factories in the U.S., creating jobs, lowering the unemployment rate, and making economic data look better.
If this set of measures is executed well, U.S. stocks may continue to rise in the short term.
But in the long term, whether tax cuts can fully offset the inflationary pressure from tariffs will depend on the implementation strength and economic data.
6. Can U.S. stocks and Bitcoin still rise?
Recently, the market has recovered from the decline caused by tariffs, with U.S. stocks basically returning to the highs of April 2.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are only 1-2% away from their previous highs, and they are expected to test this resistance level early next week.
Bitcoin has risen even more than U.S. stocks and has reached the top of the February trading range, around 95,000 to 98,000.
However, relying solely on market sentiment for this rebound may be nearly over; we need to see if there are any real positives.
For example, if U.S. economic data is strong, or if there is good news within the crypto industry, such as the Arizona Bitcoin bill passing on Tuesday, it would be a significant positive signal.
7. How will the market move this week? What are the risks?
Currently, everyone is more concerned about the true performance of economic data, and the market focus has shifted from tariff games to economic fundamentals.
Over the weekend, BTC trading volume was relatively low, and the turnover rate was also low, indicating that major funds did not enter the market with real money.
However, the founder of MicroStrategy has released a Bitcoin tracker, indicating they may be looking to buy the dip again.
A giant whale on the blockchain also bought 30,000 ETH and 600 BTC, with a total value exceeding 110 million dollars, indicating that large investors are also hoarding at low levels.
Next, GDP and PCE data are key.
If GDP exceeds expectations, such as above 0.4%, it indicates that the U.S. economy is not that bad, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin may continue to surge.
But if the data disappoints, the market may experience panic.
There is also the PCE data; if it shows little inflationary pressure, the market will feel more at ease. But if inflation rises, everyone may become cautious.