Daily share

Currently, Bitcoin is still fluctuating within the 83000~86000 range. Last night there was an attempt to surge; the price slightly broke below 85500 but failed to stand above 86000. However, today it retested around 84000. So we need to observe whether the lower 83000 can hold. If it holds, we will continue to fluctuate around this range.

As mentioned earlier, if the market continues to fluctuate around the range, it actually has no specific direction. It will eventually change direction, either breaking upward above 86000 to around 88000 or breaking downward below 83000 to around 80000.

Although this is said, the actual trading is still quite difficult. Only when the price effectively breaks above 86000 or falls below 83000 can it be considered to have established a direction. Otherwise, if the price continues to fluctuate around this range, even if it reaches 85990, as long as it hasn't stood above 86000, there is still a certain probability of dropping again. Or even if the price drops to 83200, as long as it doesn't break 83000, the price may rebound again. This is what fluctuation means.

So it's the same here, let's continue to observe 83000. What we can roughly know is that after a drop to around 80000, the market will rebound again, aiming for above 94000. If the market breaks upward first and rebounds to around 89000, or even 90000, even if it shows strong performance, there will still be a 4-hour level drop to retest 80000, or even 78000. But what we don't know is how the market will behave within this range.

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BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only be considered as a reference.

1H:

On the 1-hour level, since it has not yet broken below 83000, we are temporarily uncertain whether it has chosen to change downward, so we still view it as a central fluctuation.

This kind of fluctuation is the most annoying; it's very difficult to predict the short-term direction with 100% certainty. It's entirely dependent on the market's performance. For the short term, we currently see two structures:

Structure one: yellow arrow route, if it doesn't go directly down to break 83000 on the short term, further retesting around 80000, then starting to make a V-shaped rebound to 90000, or even rebounding to 92000. After that, it will start a 4-hour level drop.

Structure two: white route, the short term still does not break below 83000, then continues to rebound and breaks above 86000, further rebounding to around 88000, and then starts a 4-hour level drop to around 78000.

Which specific one? It is necessary to observe the gains and losses at key positions.

15M:

15 minutes level: last night's rebound failed to form a 1-hour level rebound from the central departure section, indicating that the drop below 85500 last night was a false breakout. Tonight until tomorrow, focus on the support at 83000. If it breaks below this position again, it clearly indicates that the short-term direction is downward, possibly looking towards around 80000, and after a retest, it will continue to rebound.

If by tonight to tomorrow, it still doesn't break below 83000, then the short term is very likely to test 86000 again.

ETH

Ether had a false breakout last night. I initially thought that after breaking 1615, it would make a 1-hour rebound to 1700, but it only fell around 1630. Today's observation point is 1550. If it breaks below this position again, Ether may go down to around 1480.

The difficulty of short-term operations is too high. It is recommended that Ether be on standby for now; after the expected structure is established, participation in Ether will be more effective.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction upward, currently in the process of a new weekly level increase, with an overall target looking above 150000.

Daily level: direction downward, at the end of the daily downtrend, but it is still not possible to determine when the daily pullback will end. We need to observe the next 4-hour pullback situation.

4-hour level: direction upward, currently likely within the scope of a 4-hour level rebound, with a target around 88000.

1-hour level: central fluctuation, the short term is still fluctuating within the 83000~86000 range, continue to wait for a specific direction.

15 minutes level: leaning towards fluctuation, focus tonight on the support situation at 83000.