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If Bitcoin is to undergo a 4-hour level pullback, last night was actually a very good opportunity for accelerated decline. However, Bitcoin has never accelerated to break below 100,000, and has not even broken below 101,000. This morning, it again surged to 103,500. In this case, I personally believe that the probability of Bitcoin continuing to extend at the 4-hour level is increasing. In other words, if Bitcoin does not break 100,000 for a long time, it may continue to surge above 106,000 and then provide a 4-hour level pullback.

Ethereum broke 2500 yesterday but has returned above 2600 today, indicating that this pullback cannot yet be determined as a 4-hour level decline. If Bitcoin continues to surge towards the previous high point, Ethereum should also continue to extend upwards towards above 2750.

Overall, for Bitcoin to undergo a 4-hour level decline, the price must break 100,000; otherwise, caution should be exercised. Last night, we also mentioned the need to be prepared for both scenarios.

BTC medium to long term

Weekly level:

At the weekly level, let's first look at the indicators. Currently, the weekly MACD has formed a golden cross above the zero axis again. Since a golden cross has appeared, the previous high of 109588 is very likely to be broken. Do not underestimate the power of the weekly MACD golden cross above water, so we see that the overall weekly level upward movement has a certain probability of reaching 150,000~200,000.

This weekly level upward movement is expected to continue until the end of the year, so this year remains a continuing upward trend for Bitcoin. However, as more institutions participate, market movements will become more complex, and the ultimate weekly target may not be achieved immediately; the process will definitely be very tortuous. It could oscillate in a certain price range for several months before finally reaching the target. It could also rise through a three-steps-forward, one-step-back method.

Daily level:

At the daily level, starting from last year's 49000, Bitcoin has completed the first daily level upward movement to 109588, then in the first quarter of this year, it underwent the second daily level pullback, falling from 109588 to around 74600. It then rebounded from around 74600, marking this year's third daily level upward movement.

The current daily level upward movement is very likely to break above 110,000, as the first 4-hour level upward movement has already reached above 105800. Therefore, the target for the daily level upward movement should be to surpass 110,000. As for whether it will stop at 120,000 or 130,000 after breaking above, further observation is still needed.

In summary, the current third upward movement at the daily level has not yet ended. According to the current structure, this upward correction at the daily level is expected to last at least until mid-June. Therefore, the overall direction is still bullish, even if the 4-hour level pullback mentioned in our recent articles, or the 1-hour pullback, are just normal corrections in the daily upward process. Do not mistake pullbacks for bearishness; that would be a mistake.

4H:

At the 4-hour level, based on the current trend, it is not certain that a 4-hour level pullback can be provided. Yesterday's pullback was initially hopeful for a continued accelerated decline leading to a 4-hour level pullback. However, the market remains strong, and Bitcoin has not been able to break 100,000 or 101,000. Today, the daily line has formed a pin bar, and the daily top pattern has not yet formed. Therefore, I personally believe that if it cannot drop further, do not force it. It is very possible that Bitcoin still needs to surge above 106,000 before it can provide a real 4-hour pullback.

The resistance level above is focused on around 108,000, and the second level is around 115,000.

For Bitcoin to confirm a 4-hour pullback, it needs to fall below 101,000; otherwise, be cautious about being overly bearish.

BTC short-term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the time of publishing. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use this as a reference only.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, it is inclined to end the 1-hour level pullback that started from 105819 near 101383 yesterday. Currently, it should be undergoing a 1-hour level rebound, focusing on whether this 1-hour rebound can once again break above 105819. If it does break above, it indicates that the first 4-hour level rebound starting from 74600 continues to extend upward, rather than coming to an end.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the first 15-minute level rebound has already occurred, from 101383 to 104466. It is currently uncertain whether the second 15-minute level pullback has ended. If it has not ended, continue to focus on around 103000 or 102500. As long as it does not fall below 102000, there will likely still be a third 15-minute level upward movement, watching to see if it surges above 105800.

ETH

Ethereum is currently at the 1-hour level, actually forming the third 1-hour level consolidation. Let's observe this further; if it does not break below 2477 again, there is a chance to make another 1-hour level rebound towards around 2750 or above.

15-minute level, it is currently uncertain whether it is undergoing a 15-minute level pullback. If it does occur, focus on around 2545. After the 15-minute level pullback, there is expected to be a third 15-minute level rebound, watching to see if it continues to break through 2700.

At the 4-hour level, based on the current trend status, if Bitcoin does not produce a 4-hour level pullback, it is likely that Ethereum will not either, thus extending upwards again. Currently, the first 4-hour level rebound has a chance to extend upwards to the 2800~3000 range. If it cannot break through 3040 in one go, a 4-hour level pullback will occur. After the pullback, there will also be a third 4-hour level rebound.

Ethereum is starting to strengthen. If it continues to maintain its strength, there is a possibility that the daily level rebound will again pull up to around 3500. Of course, the premise is to stand above 3000. In terms of cost-effectiveness, if Ethereum's subsequent 4-hour level pullback occurs, prioritizing going long on Ethereum should be more cost-effective than Bitcoin.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a new 4-hour level upward movement, with an overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a daily level rebound, this daily upward movement has a chance to continue creating historical new highs.

4-hour level: direction is upward, the 4-hour level pullback has still not occurred. At this time, consider whether Bitcoin will surge above 106,000 again.

1-hour level: direction is upward, it seems to be undergoing a 1-hour level rebound, let's observe the strength of the rebound.

15-minute level: direction is upward, the main resistance above is 105000. If this level is broken, the probability of continued extension is very high.