Daily sharing

The large coin here has already moved out of the expected decline, including Ethereum which has also successfully pulled back. However, the current pullback strength seems to be far from what we expected, so we need to continue observing whether it can accelerate downward tonight and in the early morning. For the large coin to achieve a 4-hour level pullback, the price must first break the 100,000 mark, and Ethereum needs to break 2500. If these key levels cannot be broken, then we need to be cautious that there may be a short-term surge to a new high.

There’s no way around it; in the current strong bullish market, being bearish is inherently difficult, especially since we are looking at a major bearish move. Whether it can truly unfold depends on the market's performance, and only when the price firmly breaks the critical point between bullish and bearish that we mentioned will the short-term direction change. I hope everyone can recognize this.

For the early prediction of short-term trends, many people only focus on the final result, just looking at whether your prediction is right or wrong. But actually, you need to let them analyze and predict on their own, otherwise they will feel lost. Because the market is constantly changing, we cannot accurately draw its complete trajectory in advance; we can only continuously update our latest predictions based on its trajectory and follow along.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market situation at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this should only be used as a reference.

1H:

Due to the decline being less than expected, we need to prepare for both scenarios here. If the large coin rebounds above 103500, it indicates that there is still upward momentum, and the bulls are still dominant. In this case, it suggests that the large coin will continue to break 106000 and undergo a 4-hour level rebound extension. After the extension, it will begin a 4-hour level pullback, as shown by the white arrow in the image above.

However, if it continues to fall tonight and in the early morning without breaking 103500, and goes down to around 100000 or below, then the overall 4-hour level pullback should be confirmed. In this case, the pullback will take at least another week, so there's no need to rush and miss out; short-term waves can be traded instead. As shown by the blue arrow in the image above.

15M:

15-minute level, the pullback structure meets our expectations; it's either an end to the 1-hour decline and a new 1-hour rebound, or it will continue to break below 101000. Currently, it is not particularly clear. We can observe whether 103500 is broken again as auxiliary verification for the short term.

If it falls below 101000 again, it tends to continue down to around 99000.

ETH

Ethereum's current 1-hour pullback structure has been established, meeting the requirements for a 1-hour pullback. Since the current 1-hour pullback has not broken the support at 2500, we are not very sure whether it can successfully achieve the desired 4-hour level pullback in the short term. If it breaks above 2610 again, there is a chance that the 1-hour pullback will end, starting a new 1-hour rebound to above 2750. However, if it loses 2500 in the early morning, then Ethereum is likely already in a 4-hour level pullback process, and we should expect to see around 2230 below.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a new weekly level rise, with an overall target above 150,000.

Daily level: the direction is upward, currently undergoing a daily rebound, and this daily rise has a chance to continue to reach a historical high.

4-hour level: direction is downward, and it may have already started or will soon start a 4-hour level pullback.

1-hour level: direction is downward, the 1-hour pullback has occurred, but whether it has ended still needs to be observed.

15-minute level: direction is upward, if it breaks 103500 again, it tends to lead the large coin to a new 1-hour level rebound toward 106000.