Based on the latest tariff policies as of April 2025 and dynamics in the crypto market, the impact analysis revised with multi-dimensional data is as follows:

One, Short-term Shock: Liquidity Contraction and Price Volatility

  1. ​Market Corrective Sell-off
    After the U.S. raised tariffs on China to 54% (in addition to previous tariffs), Bitcoin fell from $83,500 to $74,500 (a drop of 10.8%), and Ethereum also dropped by 17% ($1,800 to $1,480). The total market cap of altcoins shrank by 42%, and the daily liquidation volume in the derivatives market reached $1.38 billion, with the fear index rising.

  2. ​Changes in Liquidity Indicators


    Monthly capital inflow into Bitcoin has dropped from a peak of $100 billion to $6 billion, while Ethereum has turned into a net outflow of $6 billion, marking the lowest level since 2022. The core support level in the market has moved down to the $65,000-$71,000 range, and if it falls below, it may trigger programmatic sell-offs.


Two, Medium-term Variables: Monetary Policy and Safe-haven Narrative

1. Federal Reserve Policy Game

Tariffs have pushed U.S. inflation expectations to 3.5%, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 5.25%-5.5%. A rate cut may occur once in 2025 if recessionary pressures manifest (unemployment rate may rise to 5%). A rate cut cycle may start by the end of the year; historical data shows that a loose environment can cause Bitcoin to rise by 250%.

2.​Controversy over Safe-haven Properties

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen to 0.78, showing characteristics of a risk asset in the short term. However, in the long term, the trade war accelerates de-dollarization, and the pilot of digital RMB expands to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with daily trading volume exceeding 750 million yuan.

Three, Restructuring the Industrial Chain: Mining and Stablecoins

  1. ​Surge in Mining Costs

    The U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on mining machine chips from China, leading to a 12% increase in electricity costs for Bitmain's Xinjiang mining farms, with delays of 1-3 months in mining machine deliveries, accelerating the elimination of small mining farms.

  2. ​Surge in Demand for Stablecoins

    Disruptions in cross-border trade have pushed the USDT premium rate to 8%, with daily purchase volume by Argentine residents surging fivefold. Tether urgently issued 5 billion USDT to address the liquidity crisis, with U.S. Treasury bonds accounting for 42% of reserve assets.

Four, Technological Empowerment: Breakthroughs in Blockchain Applications

  1. ​Innovation in Supply Chain Management

    Avalanche achieves 5,000 cross-border payments per second on-chain, helping U.S. car manufacturers avoid a 25% tariff on auto parts. Aptos transfer fees on-chain are only $0.01, assisting small and medium enterprises in completing real-time settlements.


    2.​Acceleration of Compliance Processes

    The U.S. Treasury Department plans to include cryptocurrencies in the tariff declaration system, and Coinbase has launched a tariff compliance token (TariffCoin), with on-chain audit functionality usage increasing by 300%.

    Five, Geopolitical Landscape: The Prototype of the Digital Cold War

  2. Decoupling of China and the U.S. Financial System

    China's restriction on rare earth exports forces U.S. tech companies to turn to stablecoin payments, while Shenzhen pilots cross-border settlement with digital RMB covering Hong Kong and Macau, with a daily trading volume exceeding 750 million yuan.


    2.​Global Regulatory Struggle

    The EU plans to introduce the (Crypto Asset Market Regulation 2.0), requiring exchanges to isolate tariff-related trading funds. The Monetary Authority of Singapore exempts crypto payment fees to compete for the status of an Asian trade settlement hub.


    Summary and Outlook

    The current crypto market is in a **"Crisis-Opportunity" Transition Window**:

    • ​Short-term (1-3 months)​: Focus on the key support level of $70,000; if it falls below, it may seek $65,000.


    • ​Medium-term (6-12 months)​: If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, Bitcoin may rebound to the $95,000-$100,000 range.

    • ​Long-term (2-3 years)​: The accelerated restructuring of the monetary system due to the tariff war could push Bitcoin's market value above $1.5 trillion, but caution is needed for regulatory sudden changes.


    It is recommended that investors adopt a **"Core + Satellite" strategy**

    70% allocation in Bitcoin spot ETF (e.g., IBIT)


    30% investment in supply chain finance DeFi projects (e.g., Avalanche ecosystem)


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