2013安娜加密

Analysis of the Multi-dimensional Impact of Bitcoin Under the Shock of Trump's Tariffs

1. Short-term Shock: Supply Chain Disruption Triggers Panic Selling in the Market
Logistics Paralysis Transmitted to Consumption End
Cargo volume at the Port of Los Angeles plummeted by 35%, and retailers' inventory can only sustain for 5-7 weeks, which may lead to a 'commodity shortage' in the U.S. this summer, exacerbating inflation expectations (CPI is expected to exceed 6%).
Impact on Bitcoin: The initial stage of the supply chain crisis may trigger market panic, with funds flowing to traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a simultaneous decline in Bitcoin (referencing a 18% drop in BTC during the lockdown period in Shanghai in 2022).

1. Russia-Ukraine situation: Short-term safe-haven sentiment is cooling, but long-term uncertainty remains.
Core of the event:
Russia proposed a '72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10,' which the US described as 'absurd,' insisting on a 'lasting agreement'; Putin reiterated the willingness for 'unconditional negotiations' but emphasized the need to safeguard Russian interests.
Market signals: Although the ceasefire proposal briefly boosted risk appetite (stock market rebound), significant core demand differences exist between both parties, and actual implementation is questionable. If subsequent negotiations collapse, the geopolitical risk premium may quickly rebound.
Impact on Bitcoin:

Short-term bearish: Easing of safe-haven sentiment may lead to some funds flowing out of Bitcoin and other high-risk assets, shifting towards traditional safe-haven assets (gold, US Treasuries).

'When Trump's tariff stick strikes the global supply chain, the crypto market became the first 'powder keg' to explode—this is not a black swan, but a gray rhino charging into the crypto space!'


Short-term Impact: The implementation of tariffs leads to a 'liquidation wave', shattering market confidence.
Case 1: Bitcoin plunges $12,000 in 48 hours
Data Slap: After Trump announced a 34% tariff increase on China on April 2, 2025, Bitcoin plummeted from $88,000 to $74,000, with over $900 million liquidated in a single day and 310,000 retail investors forced to close their positions.

Logical Breakdown: Tariffs raise corporate costs → Inflation expectations heat up → Probability of Fed rate hikes ↑ → Dollar strengthens → Crypto assets are sold off (classic 'dollar-sucking' model).

Based on the latest tariff policies as of April 2025 and dynamics in the crypto market, the impact analysis revised with multi-dimensional data is as follows:
One, Short-term Shock: Liquidity Contraction and Price Volatility
​
Market Corrective Sell-off
After the U.S. raised tariffs on China to 54% (in addition to previous tariffs), Bitcoin fell from $83,500 to $74,500 (a drop of 10.8%), and Ethereum also dropped by 17% ($1,800 to $1,480). The total market cap of altcoins shrank by 42%, and the daily liquidation volume in the derivatives market reached $1.38 billion, with the fear index rising.

​Changes in Liquidity Indicators
Monthly capital inflow into Bitcoin has dropped from a peak of $100 billion to $6 billion, while Ethereum has turned into a net outflow of $6 billion, marking the lowest level since 2022. The core support level in the market has moved down to the $65,000-$71,000 range, and if it falls below, it may trigger programmatic sell-offs.

1. Current policy status of the understanding king (2025)
Tariff policy:
If the understanding king is back in power, it is necessary to verify whether he fulfills his campaign promises (e.g., imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods).
Current public information shows that tariffs have been raised for some industries (e.g., electric vehicles, semiconductors), but crypto mining machines have not yet been included on the list.

Key developments:
In March 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) initiated a review of 'hardware related to digital currencies,' but no clear taxation has been defined yet (Source: USTR announcement 2025-027).

Customs enforcement:
CBP upgraded the ACE system in 2024, but delays in customs clearance for crypto mining machines still exist (average delay of 7 days, an increase of 2 days from 2023).

Boasting doesn't incur taxes, but tariffs must be paid in full—Trump's 'daily collection of 2 billion' tariff pie has been slapped down by Customs data, exposing not just the politician's mathematical black hole but also the undercurrents in the global supply chain.

In-depth interpretation:

Trump has been repeatedly chanting in speeches about 'collecting 2 billion in tariffs every day', as if the U.S. Customs is a money printing machine. The result was that the Treasury and Customs data teamed up to debunk this: the actual daily income is less than 300 million, which is even less than the small change he boasted about. The most absurd part is that during the 10-hour collapse of the Customs system, they could still insist that 'income flow is stable'—this logic is quite similar to some project parties in the crypto circle claiming 'exchange outages do not affect market value'.

During a cabinet meeting at the White House, Elon Musk unexpectedly showed up uninvited. Trump, in front of the cabinet officials and media cameras, said without any mercy: 'I don't need Musk to do anything for me; the only reason he can sit here is that I happen to like him.' He really left no room for Musk's feelings.

Moreover, Musk was not invited to this meeting at all; he came on his own. U.S. political news networks have pointed out that many within the Trump administration and several external allies are very dissatisfied with Musk's unpredictability, all hoping to quickly distance themselves from him.

[Musk and Trump have completely severed ties! Is the crypto market going to experience an earthquake?]

I've laid my cards on the table! This former alliance between Musk and Trump has completely broken down, and there are going to be major events in the American tech and political circles!

Here's the situation: on April 11, Musk publicly criticized Trump on X platform for cutting NASA's budget, directly calling the former White House advisor an 'idiot.' This is not friendship; it's clearly enmity! Musk had even invested money in Trump's team back in the day, and now he turns around and starts attacking, flipping faster than a page in a book.

Why did they fall out? I analyze there are three reasons:
1. Musk supported Trump back in the day because he was sidelined by Biden's new energy policies, but after Trump took office, Musk was left out of the AI plans, and the tariff war caused him huge losses. This move is really slick!