When Trump's tariff stick strikes the global supply chain, the crypto market became the first 'powder keg' to explode—this is not a black swan, but a gray rhino charging into the crypto space!

Short-term Impact: The implementation of tariffs leads to a 'liquidation wave,' shattering market confidence.

Case 1: Bitcoin plunges $12,000 in 48 hours

  • Data Contradiction: After Trump announced a 34% tariff increase on China on April 2, 2025, Bitcoin plummeted from $88,000 to $74,000, with over $900 million liquidated in a single day and 310,000 retail investors forced to close positions.

  • Logical Breakdown: Tariffs raise corporate costs → Inflation expectations heat up → Probability of Fed interest rate hikes ↑ → US dollar strengthens → Crypto assets get sold off (classic 'dollar sucking' model).

Case 2: The 'Tariff Lifeline' of Mining Machine Manufacturers

  • Death Speed: Bitmain was forced to relocate its production line from China to Vietnam due to the ban on chips below 16nm, leading to a 20% increase in costs.

  • Chain Reaction: Mining machine price increase → Mining revenue decline → Miners sell Bitcoin for fiat → Market selling pressure intensifies (In Q1 2025, Bitcoin miners net outflow reached $1.8 billion)

Personal Opinion:
The short-term crash is essentially the result of 'policy black box + leverage backlash.' The Trump team has yet to release tariff details, and the market can only predict the worst-case scenario (such as a complete blockade of Chinese chips), leading to panic selling. It's like driving in fog, all investors slam on the brakes—even if what lies ahead may just be a false alarm.

Long-term Game: Will the crypto market become a 'new safe-haven asset'? Not necessarily!

Case 3: The 'Anti-Inflation Myth' of Ethereum Shattered

  • Magical Reality: In March 2025, the US CPI rose 6.8% year-on-year. Logically, gold and Bitcoin should rise, but ETH fell 23% in a single month—because the tariff war triggered fears of stagflation, investors preferred to hoard cash.

  • Irony Comparison: In 2024, when Trump shouted 'Make America Great Again,' BTC rose from 40,000 to 100,000; in 2025, when he actually imposed tariffs, BTC fell back to 70,000.

Case 4: The 'Political Faction' Tragedy of Meme Coins

  • Bloody Lesson: The 'TRUMP' token launched by Trump's daughter, immediately fell below the issue price (from $10 to $1.2), ridiculed as 'the worst political token of the year.'

  • Deep Logic: Policy uncertainty renders the 'sentiment game' of meme coins ineffective, and the market turns conservative (in Q1 2025, the total market value of altcoins evaporated by 40%).

Personal Opinion:
Don't be fooled by the 'digital gold' narrative! Currently, the correlation between the crypto market and US stocks is at 0.87 (historical high). Under recession expectations triggered by tariffs, it is normal for BTC and gold to fall simultaneously. Real safe haven? Better to look at the Swiss franc.

Future Forecast: Three Scenarios, Which One Do You Bet On?

Scenario A (Hard Landing):
Trump imposes a 60% tariff globally → Global supply chain fractures → BTC falls below $50,000 → Miners shut down collectively → Network hash rate plummets by 50%.

Scenario B (Soft Landing):
Partial agreement between China and the US → Tariffs adjusted down to 15% → Institutions buy the dip on BTC → Ethereum staking yields rebound to 8% → Altcoins rebound by 30%

Scenario C (Black Swan):
The EU retaliates against US tech companies → Nvidia halts supply of mining chips → Global hash rate drops to zero → PoW coins collectively go to zero → DeFi liquidity dries up.

When Trump signs the tariff documents in the White House, he may not realize he is rewriting crypto history—will this be the ultimate test for 'digital gold' or the last straw that buries the crypto space? If you hold positions, should you bet on a policy reversal or jump ship early? Share your scenario in the comments, the highest likes + follows will receive (The Crypto Survival Manual under Tariff Wars)! 🔥

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