《Rational Analysis and Strategy Sharing on ETH Investment》
Recently, many friends have been anxious due to the continuous decline of ETH, especially those investors who followed the "Always Profiting Analyst" from $3300 all the way down to $1900. I want to say that Ethereum still has a chance, but we need to wait. The next bull market has not yet started, and I don't know when it will begin, but it will definitely start. By then, everyone will be caught off guard and unable to believe it!
**1. Historical Operation Review**
I clearly established a position at ETH $2300, judging that the peak was at $3600 (cleared by November 2023). It is clear that clearing too early resulted in missing out on some profits, but for large funds with a long-term perspective, it isn't a big deal. This judgment is based on:
1. The market leverage ratio and derivative data at that time
2. Key resistance level of ETH/BTC exchange rate
3. The turning point of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
**2. Current Market Judgment**
1. Currently, it is believed that the $1200-$1300 range has strategic value for establishing positions, based on:
- The dense area of chips at the starting point of the last bull market
- The median cost of institutional dollar-cost averaging
- Staking yield and the spread over U.S. Treasury yields
**3. Risk Control Plan**
Even when entering at $1200, we still need to guard against extreme situations:
- The worst-case scenario could drop to $700-$800
- Corresponding strategy:
Positioning ratio = 1 - (Current Price - Extreme Bottom Price)/(Establishment Price - Extreme Bottom Price)
Example: If entering at $1200, falling to $800 would require adding 50% to maintain breakeven
**4. Important Reminders**
1. Currently, ETH faces structural challenges:
- Value capture issues due to Layer 2 competition
- Uncertainty premium from SEC regulation
- Homogeneous competition among smart contract platforms
2. It is not recommended for ordinary investors to adopt an "infinite averaging down" strategy, unless:
- They have cash flow that can remain untouched for at least 3 years
- They understand the changes in Ethereum's technology roadmap