Recently, the financial market has been unpredictable, with erratic ups and downs, and player sentiment fluctuating. The market initially hoped that Fed Chairman Powell would release a moderate signal under the dual pressure of tariff pressures and economic downturn risks to stabilize market confidence. However, Powell's latest statements revealed a hawkish tone, extinguishing interest rate cut expectations and casting a layer of uncertainty over market trends.
In a recent speech, Powell clearly stated that there is no intention to cut interest rates in the short term, and the reduction of the balance sheet (quantitative tightening) will proceed as planned. He denied that the economy is heading towards recession, only acknowledging that there is some downward pressure, but he did not commit to taking swift intervention measures when the economy is under pressure. This stance is vastly different from the market's expectations of 'dovish reassurance.'
Regarding tariffs, Powell pointed out that their inflationary effect could be significant and may last for a long time. Although he emphasized that the inflation effect of tariffs is 'one-off,' the Fed will be more cautious in policy formulation and must wait for the actual impact of tariffs on the economy to become apparent. This means that the likelihood of interest rate cuts or policy easing is extremely low at least until the first half of 2025.
It is worth noting that the latest GDP data has become the focus of market attention. According to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast, the current value is -2.2%, but it drops to -0.1% after excluding the impact of gold imports and exports. If the Fed believes that gold trade has limited actual economic impact, GDP data may not trigger a recession warning. This is a positive signal for the economy but further solidifies the Fed's determination to maintain a tightening policy.
The current market is in a tug-of-war between inflation and economic downturn risks. Tariffs may push up inflation, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates; however, if economic downturn pressure intensifies, it could trigger market concerns about recession. If inflation rates fall first, the Fed may gradually shift towards easing; but if the economy stalls first, market volatility may increase.
In addition, Powell reiterated the independence of the Fed, clearly stating that the president has no authority to arbitrarily dismiss Fed officials. This statement not only reinforces policy stability but also injects confidence into the market.
In the cryptocurrency field, Powell's emphasis on stablecoins has attracted widespread attention. He called for the U.S. to accelerate the establishment of a stablecoin legislative framework, highlighting his recognition of the development of the crypto industry. Compared to the previous open attitude towards banks participating in the crypto market, this focus on stablecoins is more forward-looking and may drive the industry towards normalization.
Focusing on the data layer of BTC, recent data shows that the turnover rate has declined, indicating that the previous high turnover was mostly internal capital flow within the platform rather than real user transactions. Short-term players, especially those who recently bought the dip, are choosing to exit in the face of price fluctuations, reflecting certain loss pressure. However, no new negative factors have emerged in the market.
From the chip distribution perspective, a solid bottom is forming around $83,000, and the number of holders is gradually increasing. Crucially, players in the $92,000 to $97,000 range, and even above $100,000, remain calm with no large-scale sell-offs observed. This reflects the unique characteristics of this cycle: even under price pressure, player sentiment remains robust.
At the macro level, geopolitical economic risks have eased. Both Long and the U.S. have recently expressed a willingness to communicate further, with tariff impacts likely concentrated between Long and the U.S., while other economies, like Europe, are expected to coordinate to avoid shocks. This provides favorable conditions for the repair of market sentiment.
Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but the bottom support around $83,000 is becoming increasingly solid. Coupled with favorable policies in the crypto industry and easing geopolitical economic tensions, the momentum for a rebound in the future market is worth looking forward to. This month, close attention must still be paid to GDP data and the Fed's latest assessments on inflation and tariffs.#鲍威尔发言
