The US first quarter GDP data was released last night, with a growth rate of -0.3%, which is below market expectations and has raised concerns among players about the economic outlook. However, the details behind the data reveal that the US economy is far from falling into a recession. Consumer spending remains robust, with domestic demand growth maintaining an average of 3%, demonstrating the continued resilience of American consumer confidence. The main reason for the negative GDP growth is the recent tariff policy implemented by Trump, which has directly impacted economic performance by disturbing global supply chains and exports.
In response to market fluctuations, Trump quickly spoke out, attributing the current stock market turbulence to 'Biden's economic legacy', and emphasized that the tariff policy has been suspended to stabilize market sentiment. The market seems to have responded positively to this statement, with US stocks quickly rebounding after an initial drop at the opening yesterday, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices successfully turned positive before closing. Today, US stock futures continued to show strength, with Nasdaq and S&P futures opening higher and fully recovering yesterday's losses, reflecting that players' concerns about the GDP data have largely dissipated.
The performance of Bitcoin is also impressive. Although the BTC price briefly retreated to around $92,900 shortly after the GDP data was released, on-chain data shows that there was no panic selling in the market, and the overall turnover rate was even lower than the previous day. Adjustments by short-term profit players caused slight fluctuations, but the firm confidence of long-term holders provided solid support for the price. As of now, the BTC price has stabilized around the $95,000 mark, demonstrating strong resistance capacity.
This week marks the earnings season for US stocks, and market sentiment has been significantly boosted by earnings data. Today, the earnings reports of companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) are in the spotlight; if performance exceeds expectations, it may further enhance market enthusiasm. However, while yesterday's PCE price index met expectations, the combination of March wage and consumption data has sounded alarm bells: wage growth is slowing, but consumer spending continues to rise. This indicates that inflationary pressures and high living costs are eroding the real income of the public. If Friday's non-farm payroll data shows an increase in the unemployment rate, concerns about economic slowdown may rise again.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a concentrated zone between $92,000 and $97,000, with high price stability. In the short term, while Bitcoin has the potential for a price surge, upward momentum is limited, and both on-chain data and technical indicators do not support a rapid reversal. The madman predicts that Bitcoin may maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term, and further adjustments may be needed to solidify the bottom in the future.
