The stable release of the latest GDP data from the United States has injected confidence into the market, eliminating short-term risks of an economic recession. The market is clearly more focused on data-driven signals. Tonight's non-farm payroll data has become the current focal point, with expectations that the unemployment rate will remain stable, though some viewpoints suggest that the unemployment rate may slightly rise. If the employment data performs well, it will further consolidate the upward momentum of risk assets, pushing Bitcoin to higher levels; if the data disappoints, it may trigger a market correction.
The first quarter earnings season of 2025 has injected vitality into the U.S. stock market, especially with the better-than-expected performances of Meta and Microsoft, significantly boosting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, indirectly providing upward momentum for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Amazon's earnings report released before the market close did not meet expectations, raising concerns among investors about the sustained momentum of tech stocks. Although the short-term impact is limited, the subsequent performance of tech stocks will directly affect the trend of Bitcoin. Given the strong correlation between BTC and tech stocks, players need to closely monitor the dynamics at the end of the earnings season.
MicroStrategy's (MSTR) first quarter earnings report for 2025 shows that due to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, it recorded a book loss of $5.9 billion, which is a poor performance compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. However, based on current prices, MSTR's Bitcoin holdings have achieved unrealized gains of over $8 billion, highlighting the tremendous potential of its strategy.
Even more noteworthy is MSTR's financing capability. In the first quarter of 2025, the company raised $7.7 billion, with another $2.3 billion raised in April, totaling $10 billion for the year. Additionally, MSTR announced a new ATM issuance plan and converted all $1.05 billion of convertible bonds maturing in 2027 into equity, completely eliminating recent debt repayment pressure. This means that MSTR's financial situation is rock-solid before 2028. Although its software business receives little attention, MSTR has solidified its unique position in the Bitcoin market through capital operations.
On-chain data shows that the trading turnover rate of Bitcoin has increased over the past 24 hours, but it is still within a normal range, reflecting rational market sentiment. Short-term profit-taking players dominate, while long-term holders continue to hold their ground. The $92,000 to $97,000 range remains a key area of concentrated chips, but the price rise has not been accompanied by significant increases in trading volume, indicating that liquidity has not undergone structural changes. The current upward trend may be more driven by the performance of tech stocks in the U.S. stock market rather than the intrinsic momentum of the Bitcoin market.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remains significant, especially in the context of tech stocks leading the way. The S&P 500 still has a 6.3% upside potential to reach the high point before the tariff turmoil on February 25. If the macro environment remains favorable and Trump's tariff policies do not further disrupt the market, the S&P 500 is expected to return to high levels. Given that Bitcoin usually amplifies the gains of U.S. stocks, a 6% to 8% increase in BTC could correspond to a price range of $100,000 to $106,000, making it feasible. Furthermore, Arizona's proposal regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves could become a new catalyst for growth. If this proposal is implemented, it will inject new institutional funds into the Bitcoin market, further pushing up prices. Macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's policy direction, Trump's tariff and tax reduction plans will still impact the market.
