Weekend Market Observation | Trump's Tariffs, Capital Movements, Can We Still Enter the Market?
The market this weekend looks a bit strange. On one side, there are Trump's tariff maneuvers coming one after another, and on the other side, market liquidity is shrinking, and trading volume is also declining.
First, let's talk about the key data:
BTC continues to hover around $85,000, but both trading and turnover have clearly decreased, and the rebound strength is entirely supported by short-term funds.
ETH continues to be weak, altcoin rebounds vary, but the overall market capitalization has still slightly increased following BTC.
The movement of stablecoins is crucial:
USDT's total market capitalization is stable, but the funds in the market have decreased by 800 million, indicating that some capital is choosing to wait and see.
On the USDC side, there was a net outflow of 900 million dollars in the US region this week. Although the outflow pace is not fast, the direction is clear: funds in the US region are withdrawing.
So how do we view the current market?
The market doesn't want to rise right now; it just doesn't dare to rise. Everyone is waiting for news—whether it's waiting for data or seeing what Trump will do next. Trump even backed off a bit this Wednesday, suddenly pausing some tariffs and even easing restrictions on products like phones and computers. This operation looks like “first he made harsh statements, realized the market couldn't take it, and quickly hit the brakes.”
Many people say he is “seeking benefits for partners and engaging in insider trading,” but I personally don't buy that. With the size of the US stock market, it wouldn't easily be manipulated by a few fluctuations. It's more likely that he is being pressured by the bond market and has no options left.
You can see it from the bond market:
The 10-year US Treasury yield has soared, the Federal Reserve is still not moving, and Trump can only step in personally to stabilize expectations.
What’s actually most challenging now is not the tariffs, but the economy itself—if the economy is doing well, the Federal Reserve won’t rush to cut interest rates, which is bearish for BTC; if the economy is doing poorly, then recession risks are high, which is also bearish for BTC...
How should we look ahead?
1. Bitcoin's short-term volatility pattern remains unchanged, with 83K being a phase support, but the dense chip area above is between 93K-98K. Without new funds coming in, it’s hard to break through.
2. Market sentiment is wavering; everyone is betting on whether Trump's tariffs will ultimately be negotiation chips or real sanctions.
3. The key moment is at the end of the month with the GDP data. If it really is -2.8%, then the Federal Reserve will have a headache, and only then might the market truly find a new direction.
As for my own operations, I am now preparing to clear some bottom-fishing chips and test short with my ant position!
