The US dollar, US stocks, and US bonds fell in synchrony again, reflecting deep contempt among investors for American assets.
A wide range of chaos has emerged in global markets:
- The US stock market has once again fallen into a sell-off, with the Dow Jones index down 2.5%, the S&P 500 index down 3.46%, and the Nasdaq index down 4.31%. Notably, this is the result after recovering half of the intraday losses.
- The US dollar plummeted by 1.94% (equivalent to a 5%-6% drop in the stock market), marking the worst day since 2022, with dollar volatility surpassing even last Friday's brutal stock market crash.
- Gold prices hit a historic high, oil prices fell by over 3%, and Bitcoin dropped by over 4%.
But this time, investors accustomed to large-scale events are incredibly calm, even when the market drops with a 'bang'.
First, it should be clearly recognized that the danger has only been postponed, not disappeared. Trump's '90-day tariff suspension' is not an exemption—this is not a policy shift.
Trump's suspension of certain tariffs is merely symbolic, rather than substantive. Tariffs on China remain normal, with a 10% general tariff still in effect, and the overall tax rate will remain significantly higher than any levels seen in decades. From a broader perspective, the market is recalibrating risk.
Secondly, according to the art of Trump's negotiation, we have now entered the third stage: 'making crazy moves to disrupt the opponent's rhythm.'
Trump stated he is willing to reach an agreement with China. However, the White House stated to CNBC last night that the overall tax rate would actually reach 145% (instead of the 125% tariffs Trump posted about on Wednesday), leading to a stunned silence in the trading hall, as people were curious about how this number was derived. Following this, US stocks accelerated their decline, with the S&P 500 index dropping more than 6%, just 1% away from triggering a level one circuit breaker (pausing trading for 15 minutes). It is now hard to imagine how this will end.
Afterward, Trump hinted at a forthcoming first agreement on tariffs (though not naming specific countries), which triggered a rebound in the stock market. He also suggested that if no agreement is reached in the next three months, he will re-impose a large number of 'reciprocal' tariffs. The focus now is on Trump's negotiations with other countries, but reaching an agreement in one month, two months, or three months will have different impacts on the market.
3. A frightening phenomenon now is that even Trump's conciliatory remarks during trade negotiations have failed to alleviate market volatility. The root of all this turmoil lies in Trump's lost credibility, leading investors to harbor deep disdain for American assets and a general sense of disgust—last night’s simultaneous drop in the US, dollar, and US bonds is proof of that.
What the world craves now is 'a day of peace,' even just a normal trading day.