刘宗毅A

Global markets have entered a wait-and-see mode, with more noise than signal.
Recently, there seems to be signs of easing in the China-U.S. tariff war, but there is a lack of substantial benefits, and people are still closely monitoring the subsequent developments. After frequent changes in policy stance, investors will still need time to be thoroughly convinced. Importantly, even after Trump's selective concessions, the planned and actual tariffs remain very high.
There are three major events this week:
· First, Trump's second term will reach its 100th day on April 30, at which point he will announce his second 100-day plan. Considering that his first 100 days in office led to market turmoil and widespread criticism, he may find ways to bring some good news to the market. The market believes that tariffs have peaked, and Trump will be forced to lower tariffs on China.

Trump's second term will reach its hundredth day on April 30, and now traditional alliances are breaking down, market confidence is weak, and uncertainty is pervasive.
(Time Magazine) published an article on April 22 featuring an interview with Trump, revealing a wealth of 'insider information' from his first hundred days in office during a one-hour conversation.
Given the enormous length, we only excerpt the parts that investors care about:
First, reciprocal tariffs once triggered a wave of U.S. Treasury sell-offs, but Trump recalled: 'The market was panicking at the time, but I wasn't.'
· Interpretation: This sentence is very deadly; Trump's calmness is disconnected from the market's panic, and he cannot feel the warmth or coldness of the market, facing even greater uncertainty in the future.

Cleveland Fed President Harker's comments this Thursday about 'the earliest possible rate cut in June' triggered a market rally that day.
1. 'New Federal Reserve Correspondent' Nick Timiraos posted on X platform stating that the external interpretation of Harker's views has been misread.
· First, Harker wants to convey the notion that 'this is not a timid Federal Reserve'; if necessary, the Fed can act swiftly (June is a 'reference' rather than 'specific');
· Second, Harker has repeatedly responded with 'if': 'If we have clear and convincing data by June, then the Federal Reserve will take action.'

Is it surrendering to Trump? Or surrendering to the market?
Last night's Federal Reserve 'half-hour market rescue' action triggered 'everything is up':
- The US stock market rose across the board, with the Dow Jones closing up 1.23% (down 0.4% at open), the S&P 500 rising 2.03% (up 0.1% at open), and the Nasdaq rising 2.74% (up 0.3% at open);
- Gold prices rebounded by over $50, nearing $3350.
Comparing the data from the stock market's opening and closing will be very striking.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamark stated that if clear and convincing data is obtained before June, action (rate cuts) may be taken as early as June.

Trump launched another verbal attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Monday, with the 'Sell America' trade heating up.
Overnight, the US dollar, US stocks, and US bonds fell consecutively. Today, the Asian market continues to decline, with gold breaking above $3450, and the alarm has not been lifted. The market's decline can be seen as a distress signal from the Federal Reserve—because the more the market declines, the less likely Powell is to be fired.
Regardless of whether Trump has the legal right to take action against the Federal Reserve, this dispute undermines the foundation of the Fed's independence, putting the financial markets in jeopardy.

Global markets opened on Monday, once again showcasing ominous signs: gold is rising while everything else is falling.
Although the fluctuations are not enormous, they are sufficient to illustrate the problem:
- The dollar index at 99 levels has once again refreshed the low point of this round of movement. U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. stock futures are also declining simultaneously. The crisis of trust in U.S. assets remains unresolved.
- Meanwhile, crude oil and Bitcoin are also declining, and there is a risk-averse tendency in global markets.
It may be that the market is responding to the news of 'Trump firing Powell', and if that is indeed the case, then the trend at today's opening can only be described as tremors before a major earthquake.

This round of volatility may be even more severe than the trade war.
1. The world is anxiously watching the escalation of the situation regarding the 'firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.' The credibility of the Federal Reserve, as the world's strongest central bank, largely relies on its historical independence from political influence. Removing Powell would severely damage an already fragile market, with consequences potentially far exceeding the smoke of trade wars.
French Finance Minister Le Maire warned that if Powell is ousted, the credibility of the dollar will be threatened, the cost of U.S. debt repayment will rise, and the U.S. economy will fall into severe chaos. The consequences will eventually force the U.S. to negotiate to end the tensions.

| Trump stated in the first week of his second term that his understanding of interest rates 'far exceeds' that of the Fed leaders and hopes they will listen to his views.
After Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell for 'not cutting rates fast enough', reports emerged again—Trump is considering whether to replace Powell.
White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, when asked about 'whether Powell could be replaced', said that the president and his team will continue to study the issue.
Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his call for interest rate cuts on Friday: "If we had a Federal Reserve chair who understood how to do it, rates would have been cut long ago; he should lower the rates."

The 'surrender' misunderstood by the world: Essentially, any view that the market has bottomed out is a belief that Trump has already 'surrendered'.
Global markets showed mixed results on Tuesday, waiting for new catalysts.
The good news is that market volatility has significantly slowed down, allowing people to calmly analyze the issues; the bad news is that tariffs are threatening the market rebound, and Trump has initiated investigations into chips and pharmaceuticals before imposing more tariffs.
The liquidation event is not over; the current calm is a misreading of 'Trump's surrender':
First, a true market bottom requires Trump to 'surrender' (reversal or end of tariff policy). But now the market mistakenly interprets 'delaying for 90 days' and 'pausing tariffs on some tech products' as Trump's retreat. If it is a retreat, it is Trump's concession to the market, rather than the tariff policy itself. The situation could explode at any moment.

Global markets performed relatively calmly on Monday, with gold prices opening lower and then stabilizing, while U.S. stock futures opened higher but gave back some gains, seemingly preparing for a significant choice.
1. After the market closed on Friday, the U.S. announced that it had 'exempted some electronic products from reciprocal tariffs.' However, before the market opened on Monday, there was a reversal, stating that this was just a pause in collection, which would later be changed to different tariff rates.
Shortly after playing golf on Sunday, Trump posted on social media claiming: No one can escape punishment. Exempt products are merely shifted to another tariff category, and there will be a review of the semiconductor and entire electronic product supply chain.

| US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin speaks at the White House
Trump hopes to reach 90 trade agreements within 90 days, and then engage with China as a whole—this is what US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin refers to as the 'encirclement' plan (building a higher wall around China).
The negotiation strategy consists of three major parts:
1) Negotiating with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, all of which are neighbors to China;
2) Negotiating with Canada and Mexico (led by US Secretary of Commerce Ross), forming a 'North American fortress' that will allow the three countries to jointly resist the 'flood of Chinese imports.'

The US dollar, US stocks, and US bonds fell in synchrony again, reflecting deep contempt among investors for American assets.
A wide range of chaos has emerged in global markets:
- The US stock market has once again fallen into a sell-off, with the Dow Jones index down 2.5%, the S&P 500 index down 3.46%, and the Nasdaq index down 4.31%. Notably, this is the result after recovering half of the intraday losses.
- The US dollar plummeted by 1.94% (equivalent to a 5%-6% drop in the stock market), marking the worst day since 2022, with dollar volatility surpassing even last Friday's brutal stock market crash.
- Gold prices hit a historic high, oil prices fell by over 3%, and Bitcoin dropped by over 4%.

Short sellers are left with empty pockets, full of dust. After 1:00 AM Beijing time, Trump posted on social media:
A temporary suspension of new tariffs for 90 days for some countries, during which tariffs will be reduced to 10%, with specific lists still unclear. Trump simultaneously claimed that due to China's lack of respect for the global market on trade issues, he decided to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, effective immediately. When Trump issued the tariff adjustment statement, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also seemed surprised. Trump's concession on tariffs shifted the market from fear to excitement.

Oh my God, this is really shocking. Is this true? Everything happened too fast. When the news broke, the trading floor was in an uproar. Everyone was shouting, what's going on? Are the tariffs paused? Is it real?
Trump has conceded.
Trump announced after midnight:
1) A 90-day tariff pause on countries that have not taken retaliatory actions;
2) Raise the tariff rate on Chinese goods to 125%, effective immediately. But he reiterated that he believes a trade agreement will ultimately be reached with many countries, including China.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that he (Trump) needed great courage to hold on until now, and this has always been his strategy.

Bloodbath, unbearable to look at, these words seem insufficient to describe today's market brutality.
For the stock market, a drop of less than 2% is called a decline, around 3% is called a significant drop, around 4% is called a crash, while around 8% can be referred to as 'plummeting, collapse'. Today many markets meet the definition of 'plummeting'.
This sell-off seems to be far from over:
1. The market is operating in a downward direction, accompanied by soaring volatility and enormous trading volume. All of this tells us that this is just the beginning, and it has already spread to every market.
2. The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve have made no policy response to this wave of major market declines, which increases uncertainty. In the past, during significant declines, there were always people stepping up to reassure the market, but this time it was 'empty'.

Now, the market is its own biggest enemy.
Under concerns about tariffs, global markets are experiencing widespread selling and are collapsing before our eyes.
- The Hang Seng Index fell 8%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 4%; the Japanese stock market briefly plunged 8% before narrowing its losses;
- After gold fell below $3000, it surged again by $50, returning above $3000.
- After the dollar index opened lower, it nearly recovered all its losses.
1. The details of gold and the dollar during the session are very important; first, they fell, then recovered losses, and finally formed a trend of simultaneous rises in gold, the dollar, and U.S. bonds—demonstrating that the crisis is deepening further.

全球市场周一再度陷入无差别抛售模式，人人都是惊弓之鸟：
- 美股期货开盘即暴跌，纳斯达克指数期货跌幅达5%；
- 金价下跌逾40美元，跌破3000美元整数关口；
- 油价跌逾4%，美国原油跌破60美元；
- 美元指数跌0.34%，再度回归跌势。
1、今日下跌更多的是由“希望幻灭”引发的。
人们希望特朗普政府中有人在周末发表某种评论，表明可能会进行谈判或改变关税，但他们似乎坚持己见。无论白宫，还是美联储，没有任何安抚市场的言论。
特朗普在Truth Social上分享了一段视频，暗示他的关税旨在故意重挫股市，以迫使美联储降息。这个帖子引发了全球关于特朗普的关税是永久性新关税制度的一部分，还是仅仅是一种谈判策略，以促使其他国家做出让步降低关税的辩论。
美国商务部长卢特尼克周日表示，关税措施仍将在数日或数周内实施，不会推迟。
2、“无差别抛售”是因为“跌幅太大了”，以至于投资者在某个地方收到了追加保证金的通知，不得已抛售其他资产满足保证金需求，这样一来造成了“一切皆跌”。在这样的市场抛售中，恐慌和通过追加保证金强制抛售可能会持续一段时间。并不需要一个非常真实的负面事件，随后的抛售可能会自行发

The dollar plummeted, shocking the world; even the number one reserve currency did not escape the fate of being sold off.
In times of market panic, investors tend to flock to the safe dollar, but during the recent plunge in U.S. stocks, investors fled from the dollar — the dollar is facing the most severe trust crisis since Nixon's shock in 1971.
First, it is important to understand that the dollar has not acted as a safe haven this time because investors associate tariffs with recession, meaning tariffs will trigger an economic downturn, which will drag down the dollar. Furthermore, Trump's erratic behavior has been too dangerous, harming the credibility of the dollar. The recent depreciation of the dollar indicates that concerns over its currency status 'have left traces in the financial markets.'