Is it surrendering to Trump? Or surrendering to the market?

Last night's Federal Reserve 'half-hour market rescue' action triggered 'everything is up':

- The US stock market rose across the board, with the Dow Jones closing up 1.23% (down 0.4% at open), the S&P 500 rising 2.03% (up 0.1% at open), and the Nasdaq rising 2.74% (up 0.3% at open);

- Gold prices rebounded by over $50, nearing $3350.

Comparing the data from the stock market's opening and closing will be very striking.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamark stated that if clear and convincing data is obtained before June, action (rate cuts) may be taken as early as June.

First, the Federal Reserve chose to appear on the traders' 'barometer' CNBC screen shortly after the market opened (within half an hour), signaling a clear intention to support the market. From the footage, Hamark appeared in the CNBC studio rather than in an emergency video link, indicating that the Federal Reserve is very well prepared and has thought this through carefully.

Second, this is the first time the Federal Reserve has given a specific timeline for rate cuts since Trump took office, which is significant.

Third, the Federal Reserve seems to have formed some tacit understanding with Trump, as Trump did not criticize the Federal Reserve again on Thursday—but it is hard to say if this is the Federal Reserve surrendering to the market or to Trump. Although it may seem like a 'tacit ceasefire' on the surface, the Federal Reserve's independence may be questioned by the market.

However, Hamark does not have voting rights this year. The Federal Reserve seems afraid of being over-interpreted and magnified by the market, thus opting to release signals from officials without voting rights this year. Historically, non-voting members have often been used as 'mouthpieces' for policy direction to reduce the risk of direct commitment.

On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Waller also softened his tone. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, he stated that tariffs are unlikely to trigger persistent inflation and that we should be wary of overreacting. However, if I see a significant decline in the labor market, I believe it is important for us to intervene.

Two officials changed their tone on the same day, which is a typical strategy of the Federal Reserve's forward guidance, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and reducing uncertainty. However, last night's 'rise across the board' reflects more the market effects of forward guidance rather than a policy that has already been finalized.

Everything is variable. Frankly speaking, reacting to these headlines feels a bit like a nightmare for strategists.