On the eve of China's holiday, significant changes in the global market environment have occurred.

Today, the US stock market has once again become the focus of global traders, from which a wealth of information can be gleaned.

1. Let's first review the performance of US stocks last night: closing with a slight increase, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.75%, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 0.55%. From the intraday trend, there was a steady rise after the opening, with the opening price being the lowest of the day and the closing price being the highest.

From the perspective of price fluctuations and intraday trends, there is good news, but it is not enough to completely eliminate market vigilance—this is the stock market's evaluation of the latest news.

2. In contrast, two pieces of good news did indeed emerge last night (which are not considered good news for Chinese investors):

· First, Trump will announce a reduction in the impact of automotive tariffs, allowing auto manufacturers who pay automotive tariffs to no longer pay some other tariffs simultaneously, such as steel and aluminum tariffs.

· Second, the United States has reached a trade agreement with one country, and the White House has been continuously releasing good news through CNBC and Fox Business recently. The first trade agreement will have a demonstration effect, prompting more countries to make concessions. Future trade frictions may no longer appear in the form of a large, comprehensive tariff list, but could evolve into a series of targeted 'case-by-case negotiations'.

US Commerce Secretary Ross stated in an interview with CNBC that a trade agreement has been reached (but refused to disclose the name of the country), and it is awaiting approval before being announced.

After a day of silence, Trump suddenly spoke up, stating that tariff negotiations with India are progressing smoothly and an agreement will be reached between the two countries. Meanwhile, Trump said that Powell has not done a good job, which is his latest criticism of Powell.

3. However, it should be noted that the increase in US stocks is only between 0.5% and 0.8%, indicating that buying pressure is not fully committed. This reflects a state where 'good news has been partially digested and is not enough to completely dispel concerns'—a typical cautious style of 'buying good news but not the ultimate outcome'.

Firstly, reducing automotive tariffs is essentially a concession to alleviate the pressure of increased tariffs, but it has not been 'completely revoked';

Secondly, there has been no progress in US-China trade, which is what investors are most concerned about.

Although market volatility has decreased, vigilance must be heightened. The emergence of significant good news and a slight rise in the market could either signal a precursor to a downturn or indicate substantial upward momentum.

But in any case, as we mentioned this morning in (Global Market Strategy):

A series of recent shocks confirm that the 'Trump put option' indeed exists, and the 'Fed put option' also exists.