Short sellers are left with empty pockets, full of dust. After 1:00 AM Beijing time, Trump posted on social media:
A temporary suspension of new tariffs for 90 days for some countries, during which tariffs will be reduced to 10%, with specific lists still unclear. Trump simultaneously claimed that due to China's lack of respect for the global market on trade issues, he decided to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, effective immediately. When Trump issued the tariff adjustment statement, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also seemed surprised. Trump's concession on tariffs shifted the market from fear to excitement.
1. This is a decision made by Trump under pressure. Not only has the US stock market faced a sell-off, but it has also spread to the US bond market. Just 20 minutes before he posted, Goldman Sachs released a report predicting a recession in the US economy. After his post, Goldman Sachs retracted that report. Earlier last night, shortly after the stock market opened, Trump urged Americans to remain calm and continue investing. He posted on social media saying: 'Now is a good time to buy!!!'
2. After the news broke, global markets entered a frenzy. Not only did the US stock market skyrocket, but assets like gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin also rose. Previously it was 'sell everything', now it's 'buy everything', even Chinese assets rose, with the offshore yuan up 400 points and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 4%.
However, it is worth noting that after the market opened on Thursday, the offshore yuan retraced some of its gains. Many people found this confusing:
· First, while announcing the above news, Trump also stated that he 'believes a trade agreement will ultimately be reached with many countries, including China,' which leads the market to naively believe that Trump's tariffs are a negotiation strategy, just like in the past.
· Second, since Trump can retract some tariff measures due to market conditions, if future sell-offs occur again, Trump will also consider retracting tariffs on China. In other words, Trump has been held hostage by the market. This is also why the Federal Reserve is reluctant to intervene to rescue the market.
If the Federal Reserve eases, then it must take full responsibility for the market. Now that Trump has eased, he needs to take full responsibility for the market as well. From a medium-term perspective, China remains the focus, which means the market is still engulfed in a worried atmosphere. We still need to understand what the new world order looks like; volatility will be the theme for the foreseeable future until negotiations end, and negotiations never really end.
3. This is not Trump 'giving in', but rather a strategic retreat; uncertainty has not disappeared. A 90-day pause sounds like good news, but upon reflection, one realizes that 'the market has gained 90 days of uncertainty.'
We are unsure whether this is a scam, whether it was pre-arranged or a reaction; everything is unknown.#加密市场反弹 $BTC
