#美国加征关税 Market Logic

On April 6, the market began to decline. The previous warning was the drop in the US stock market, while Bitcoin did not follow suit. The reasoning is that many people believe that the realization of bad news is actually good news, which leads to a sudden drop. I am also bearish on the A-share market at 3400. Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to break 84000, which gives retail investors a false impression. On that day, the market dropped 5000 points and took profits at the 79000 level, but I did not expect the emotional aspect to lead to a severe drop.

The basic logic is as follows: reliable ➕ tariffs are causing the market funds to hedge in advance, with gold hitting a new high of 3084💲/ounce, indicating a flight to safety. After the drop in the US stock market, following the previous approach, there is bound to be potential support. China's countermeasures against tariffs will inevitably lead to an intensified market decline.

I originally only saw the extreme of 77000, and the technical indicators EM A60 and the bull-bear line daily chart formed a dead crossover, indicating a downward trend. After the drop, I expect a rebound of 7000 points, looking for a rebound of 6000 points, and shorting around 80250. When I saw 76600 (upon reaching 76600, I noticed the rebound in the downward trend was not obvious, I saw 75250 long in real-time, but the result was a continued drop to 74600. However, due to staying up late last night and catching up on sleep in the morning, I took a position at 76300 and added at 75250. But because I needed to sleep, I set a stop loss at 74800 and went to sleep. I just continued to go long at 76000 (not advisable to have a large position against the trend), and regarding where to see 80250, that is my profit-taking point. I will again enter a short position at 80800-81500, two hands. We will continue to analyze the market logic.

In response to Dongda's countermeasures, it is certainly within the reliable expectations. There will still be news boosts tonight. As for the boost and sudden drop, that’s another wave, making the market believe that the drop cannot continue, and then using news to hammer the market in the early morning. Whether it's a 'wolf is coming' story, I can only say that the first and second warnings are acceptable, but not the third. There will still be people hanging at the top like the wave at 95000, and the subsequent financial war will continue. The market will continue to hedge, and then Dongda and reliable will begin to ease a bit, and the market will start a new rebound (most likely not a reversal). Of course, the strength of the rebound will be unprecedented, and many people may think it is a reversal.

This market is not just a technical issue, but also a logical thinking issue.

Every penny you can ultimately earn is a realization of your understanding of this world.