全胜思维

#Is BTC so stable? Has the liquidity been so bad on Saturday? The trading volume was 40 BTC in 15 minutes, and most of them were machine transactions. So what can you use to play contracts? I suggest that many people can give up playing contracts now. The liquidity plunder is too serious. It seems to be a game, but it is actually a fish on the chopping board.

#BTC shows high control

Based on existing market data and institutional behavior analysis, the possibility of high control of Bitcoin (BTC) is increasing significantly, but its manifestation is different from the "control" in traditional financial markets. The following is a comprehensive analysis from multiple perspectives:

### 1. The leading role of institutions and whales
1. **Concentrated holdings of ETFs and listed companies**
Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the ETF holdings of institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have continued to grow. BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone currently holds more than 200,000 bitcoins. In addition, MicroStrategy has become the largest corporate holder by continuously increasing its holdings (holding more than 210,000 BTC as of April 2025). Its stock price is highly tied to the price of Bitcoin, forming a "self-reinforcing" buying cycle.
**Impact**: The increase in the concentration of institutional holdings, coupled with passive buying of ETFs, may lead to control of market liquidity. Especially in low volatility cycles, a small number of large transactions can significantly affect prices.

2. **Whale address chips are concentrated**
On-chain data shows that the top 1% of Bitcoin addresses control approximately 30% of the circulating supply. The recent whale behavior is highly similar to the accumulation period in August-September 2023, indicating that large funds are strengthening their market dominance by accumulating funds at low levels. For example, in April 2025, a whale address went long on BTC at $77,000 with a 40x leverage, holding $200 million and making a profit of more than $6.8 million in the short term.

### 2. Market structure and volatility changes
1. Volatility drops to historic lows
Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility is close to its all-time low, indicating that market supply and demand are tending to balance, and stable buying led by institutions is suppressing short-term price fluctuations. This low volatility environment provides the basis for "controlling the market" because a small amount of funds can drive prices through key resistance levels.

2. Liquidity is concentrated on mainstream exchanges
As the share of CME Bitcoin futures and NYSE ETF trading volume increases, liquidity further concentrates on compliant markets. Institutions such as BlackRock actually control the pricing power of Bitcoin spot and futures through ETFs and derivative tools.

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#OM has fallen from the altar, the main force is unable to move, the contracts have harvested a wave of retail investors. Spot trading also needs to cut losses; in these times, if you can't adjust your strategy even a little bit, you will face liquidation even if you double down.

#加密市场反弹 , Rebound or Reversal
First, let's say the conclusion is a rebound

Good morning everyone, today let's discuss Bitcoin. The temporary suspension of tariffs for 90 days has shaken the market twice, and of course, the triple hit from U.S. Treasury, stocks, and foreign exchange assisted. The back-and-forth news has led the market funds to seek safe havens, causing gold to rise. As I mentioned in my analysis a couple of days ago, the small probability event of reaching 84000 has occurred. Over the weekend, during the Asian trading session, the shorts were forcibly pushed to 86000, which was expected; it's best to avoid speculation over the weekend.
Since BTC passed through the ETF, its hedging ability has weakened, beginning to resemble U.S. stocks, showing less in the rise but very clearly in the decline and correction.
What is the current situation? In my view, it is a game, a bait 🪤, a point for adding positions (divergence at the daily level, U.S. stock rebound, altcoins polarizing) (the timing for altcoins is not right; the real timing has the effect of using four ounces to move a thousand pounds)
Objective: 1. Shallow. Blow up the short positions, give the market confidence
2. Deep. Fool Americans into bottom-fishing BTC's ETF for easy unloading.
Reason: Most ETF buyers are in profit.
So, with a large amount of ETF selling this month, retail investors' psychological emotions are beginning to stir. The main players are starting to cooperate with the news to create a favorable situation, and those who previously bottomed out will start to take partial profits, triggering greed. In the end, this leads to a silent kill, causing total losses.

Side verification:
1. China firmly confronting tariffs
2. The future economic system settlement currency in the Asia-Pacific region is likely to be Renminbi
3. The U.S. partially compromises on tariffs, news on the 12th

In the short to medium term, Bitcoin still looks to start with a 6, while Ethereum seems to be weaker. Those who should have laid out shorts should do so. Starting next week, the impact of tariffs will gradually manifest, with unemployment and inflation; what is meant to come will eventually come.

#加密市场反弹
Those who have spot can hedge appropriately. Today and tomorrow are critical moments. The general trend is still the story of the wolf coming. Today we will talk about the logic of the copycat.
We must first clarify a few points
First, whether a market can continue to maintain its activity requires constant fresh blood.
Now that the inflow of ETFs seems to inject liquidity, most of the liquidity is still in the big cake, and Ethereum can only be suffocated (the car is too heavy, plus uncontrolled factors).
Now it has been a year since the ETF was passed. The cost price at that time should be around 43,000. Even if the positions were built later, they were also at the position of 60,000 to 70,000. In the process of rising, there will not be so many people cashing in profits. But when the market falls sharply, there will be many people redeeming. In fact, most of them are retail investors. The market rose because of the large volume before, and then they will sell in panic because of the decline. This is the psychology of retail investors, whether it is spot or ETF. Coupled with external national factors, it is normal for risk aversion to rise, but for Shanzhai, there is indeed another completely opposite situation. The market continues to see large-cap new coins cutting leeks, meme coins cutting leeks, inscription coins cutting leeks, and presidential coins cutting leeks. Even if the money in the currency circle is blown by the wind, this wave of directly digging out the roots of leeks has also caused a lot of fresh blood to not flow in, and the market liquidity is facing exhaustion.

Second plate logic
Recently, Binance has significantly removed illiquid currencies, even more than 10 currencies at a time, which is unprecedented. Previously, at most two or three currencies were removed at a time, indicating that the situation is already very serious, and the purpose of Zhao Laosi's removal is,
First, to relieve the grievances of the people and ensure circulation. Let these funds flow into other currencies to maintain market activity.
Second, and also at a deeper level, those currencies have become abandoned. Before this removal, there was a currency with a serious decline, which also became abandoned, and doing this is to prepare for the subsequent Shanzhai season.
Why must it be done?
Because if you want fresh blood to flow in, you must create a myth. The idea of ​​retail investors entering the market is the copycat season. Without the copycat season, there will be no new investors entering the market to take over. If you want funds to flow into the copycats, there must be an outflow of big money. These funds provide funding for the copycats to have a chance.

#美国加征关税
The speech of Dongda still represents the voice of the world. The righteous have many supporters, while the unrighteous have few supporters. The Eagle Sauce bandit logic is no longer working. Let's watch the very reliable performance tonight.

#BTC走势分析
Sent during the day, directly surged violently at night, got out at 81000, leaving the rest for the big brothers, the story of the wolf coming has repeated itself time and again, let's wait around 4 o'clock, looking forward to a powerful response from Dongda during the day, in this kind of market, stability is key, make sure to set stop losses, brothers. In a bull market, there are many crashes, in a bear market, there are many surges, waiting for opportunities, and acting when the time is right.

#美国加征关税 90 days of tariff relief period?
First of all, this news was used during the drop to rebound and go long against the bears, and now it's being reheated, pretending to be real, it's nothing more than our countermeasure from Dongda being too strong, confronting head-on is indeed a poor strategy, plus supporting the US stock market for a while, otherwise, the US stock market would have been brutally killed. The middle strategy is to buy time, after all, it’s impossible to bow down, wait until all plans are in place before changing the tone. Warfare is about deception (the trade war is also a national war). One could say that the think tank of Eagle Sauce still has some substance, but compared to Dongda, it’s indeed lacking. The market will react quickly, and what awaits next is not a small drop. Human nature dictates that if played with repeatedly, will investors avoid risks first? After all, a 90-day extension is ultimately just a stalling tactic. This indirectly shows that the very reliable objectives have not been achieved. First, there’s no hope for Powell’s interest rate cuts; second, suppressing Dongda resulted in a counteraction from Dongda. It’s clear that the very reliable ones know to cut losses in time; otherwise, just internal conflicts could leave them in a mess. The major trend remains unchanged, and it’s still that saying: the more you worry about something, the more likely it is to happen. I worry that tonight there might be a small probability of hitting 84000, and the result is that Murphy’s Law is likely to take effect.

I can only say that Eagle Sauce’s understanding of Chinese culture is still half-baked. I guess Dongda’s response is, if the hostility is unusual, then I will strike back. Since you want to intimidate the world, Dongda can pull together partners it can gather, which gives more time for layout. As for institutions and large holders, when they see potential major risk situations, they will hedge at relative positions. Next, gold will rise significantly, and Bitcoin is like a sword of Damocles hanging over its head; at least the current market has not stabilized, and even if it hits 84000, it is a rebound (not a reversal).

Finally, I’ll conclude with a quote from chess players: 'In every step of the process, I made him feel like he was gaining local profits, determined to win, which is why he ended up losing everything.' Hunter and prey, who is the real hunter?

#美国加征关税 Market Logic
On April 6, the market began to decline. The previous warning was the drop in the US stock market, while Bitcoin did not follow suit. The reasoning is that many people believe that the realization of bad news is actually good news, which leads to a sudden drop. I am also bearish on the A-share market at 3400. Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to break 84000, which gives retail investors a false impression. On that day, the market dropped 5000 points and took profits at the 79000 level, but I did not expect the emotional aspect to lead to a severe drop.
The basic logic is as follows: reliable ➕ tariffs are causing the market funds to hedge in advance, with gold hitting a new high of 3084💲/ounce, indicating a flight to safety. After the drop in the US stock market, following the previous approach, there is bound to be potential support. China's countermeasures against tariffs will inevitably lead to an intensified market decline.
I originally only saw the extreme of 77000, and the technical indicators EM A60 and the bull-bear line daily chart formed a dead crossover, indicating a downward trend. After the drop, I expect a rebound of 7000 points, looking for a rebound of 6000 points, and shorting around 80250. When I saw 76600 (upon reaching 76600, I noticed the rebound in the downward trend was not obvious, I saw 75250 long in real-time, but the result was a continued drop to 74600. However, due to staying up late last night and catching up on sleep in the morning, I took a position at 76300 and added at 75250. But because I needed to sleep, I set a stop loss at 74800 and went to sleep. I just continued to go long at 76000 (not advisable to have a large position against the trend), and regarding where to see 80250, that is my profit-taking point. I will again enter a short position at 80800-81500, two hands. We will continue to analyze the market logic.
In response to Dongda's countermeasures, it is certainly within the reliable expectations. There will still be news boosts tonight. As for the boost and sudden drop, that’s another wave, making the market believe that the drop cannot continue, and then using news to hammer the market in the early morning. Whether it's a 'wolf is coming' story, I can only say that the first and second warnings are acceptable, but not the third. There will still be people hanging at the top like the wave at 95000, and the subsequent financial war will continue. The market will continue to hedge, and then Dongda and reliable will begin to ease a bit, and the market will start a new rebound (most likely not a reversal). Of course, the strength of the rebound will be unprecedented, and many people may think it is a reversal.
This market is not just a technical issue, but also a logical thinking issue.
Every penny you can ultimately earn is a realization of your understanding of this world.

Future Trends of #$BTC
The first strategy of 'The Thirty-Six Stratagems' is to deceive the heavens to cross the sea. 'Be prepared and the outcome will be secure; if it is common, there will be no suspicion.' If the enemy is unusual, then we will strike back.

#美国加密战略储备
BTC is about to welcome new changes, if I can't send it out, I'll continue to send it.

#美国加密战略储备
At this point in time, if such a sentence is released, there are still many longs who have 120 million ethers and 70 million US dollars of Bitcoin, and the liquidation is less than two points.
Now this market has started from the issue of Trump coin. People just use the coin circle as an ATM. In fact, Trump and Ma are the same. They don’t pay attention to cryptocurrency at all. For them, this is the best risk-free market to operate. There are a lot of people giving them money under the banner of faith. Will they carry us in advance if they want to join the strategic reserve?
Even a family has to issue money in the coin circle. It can only be said that businessmen are businessmen. There is no faith, no respect, only interests. In fact, I find that the nature of the coin circle is slowly changing. Now there are unlimited high-valued new coins, and a few meme coins are raised to liven up the atmosphere. In the end, it is all a mess. Countless copycat coins have no hot money inflows and are slowly crawling at the bottom. They used to be the founding marshals, but now they can only be abandoned and become the abandoned children of "businessmen". At least 95% of retail investors in the current market are losing money. When 99.9% of retail investors are losing money, they will choose a few altcoins that have been ambushed in advance and shout that the altcoin season is coming, and harvest the last wave.
Why not pull ETH? Because most of the chips are not in their hands. You can see how much the trading volume of BTC's monthly line is at 15,000. They have already made a calculation. The online position of ETFs, forced a short wave to pull 100,000, suppress ETH, and finally say that the big cake is the belief. Most retail investors believe in the altcoin season brought by the second cake. In such a market, it is better to exit early.

Let me tell you something you don’t know. When the trend is confirmed, a large number of short orders were withdrawn. I was very puzzled at the time. It seems that it was premeditated.

#Current state of the crypto market, the constant influence of celebrities is cutting the leeks, speculative opportunities are becoming fewer, the so-called value investments only have one or two coins left, the probability of losses in current investments is very high, and opportunities are scarce. It seems that the second coin is also about to enter a cycle, and it is estimated that it will break 3K in the next few days, and related coins will also see some increase 📈.
Don't be afraid to get on board.

#BTC dog dealers have returned triumphantly, leaving the market with $100 million and $100 million, leaving the numbers to retail investors, leaving with the blood of retail investors, waiting for another wave of rise to harvest. This wave hurt the hearts of the leeks in the air force, and what they can't stand is the routine of the main force, which deceives the trust of retail investors with fluctuations one after another, uses hot spots to blow up the air force, gives some hope that it will not be killed all at once, and makes retail investors add margin. This wave of psychological analysis is really perfect, and we have to be honest in our A-shares. If you don't leave, I won't pull, and if you dare to pull, I dare to sell. Let's wait and see the performance of the main force next.

#牛回速归，晒晒你的持仓？
Brothers, it won’t explode tonight, right?

#BTC contract 80300, brothers are we short or long, just say it

#BTC把空军拉爆后
The big pancake impacts 80,000, and the shorts have been completely wiped out. Now the funding rate has reached 0.0259%. The main players can only continue to lure shorts because the only ones buying at this level are the main players using contracts to offset costs; retail investors are unlikely to step in. Currently, those shorting are decreasing, and they can only deceive some people into shorting to lower costs. Look at the data below; the long positions are waiting for redemption. The main players hope that retail investors will all short and redeem their positions. As long as they don't short, they are undermining the main players, but retail investors cannot be persuaded; only liquidation can be the end.

#BTC还适合做空吗
The significance of raising is nothing more than two things: first, to raise and sell; second, to raise and settle contracts. Now, in a second, several hundred points can be raised, killing contracts is like playing a game, indicating that most of the chips are still in the hands of the main force. The cost of raising can be covered by contracts. At this point, everyone is very excited, but to be honest, this market is no longer suitable for contracts. Short sellers are watching your chips; if you're just a second slow, your account will go negative (Binance account), making BTC play like an altcoin. The final round of the bull market may not just be talk; when most people react, there may not be a final wave.
In summary, the current cryptocurrency circle is hard to describe. The contract for Bitcoin can be 600 higher than the spot price, and it would be better to directly play TRB. Finally, congratulations to Huobi for reaching 87,000 for Bitcoin.

This signal is hidden within 15 minutes; if it weren't for seeing the lowest 68888.88 within 24 hours, it wouldn't have been noticed at all. It can't be seen at the hourly level. As soon as this instruction came out, the surge began, and the volume increased as well. Therefore, in cryptocurrency, these numbers should be noted, especially the indicators hidden within 15 minutes.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
The 24h trading volume of ETH is already below $500 million. It looks like there will be a big move soon. Are you expecting the good news to be realized or the bad news to be bearish, or are you expecting the ETF to be bullish? At this stage, those who should be bullish are bullish, and those who should be bearish are bearish. It depends on which side has placed more bets.