Core indicator interpretation
BOLL channel (direction biased bearish):
Current price 1,473.69 is below the middle track (1,546.47), close to the lower track (1,360.59), overall in a downward channel.
Key signal: If the price rebound cannot break through the middle track (1,546.47), the bearish trend continues; if it stabilizes at the middle track, it strengthens in the short term.
MACD bearish momentum convergence:
DIF (-75.40) is close to DEA (-74.31), MACD bar slightly decreases (-1.09), indicating that the downward momentum is weakening, but a golden cross has not yet formed.
RSI (6) neutral slightly weak:
RSI value 42.13 (not oversold), if the rebound breaks through 50, it strengthens the bullish trend in the short term; if it falls below 30, it accelerates the decline.
Volume-price structure:
Current trading volume (Vol 2.1573 million) is above the 10-day average (1.8120 million), but the price has not made a new low, indicating a potential bottom divergence.
Operation strategy
Bullish strategy (light position, betting on rebound)
Entry point:
Conservative: Price pulls back to the previous low around 1,384.00 and stabilizes on low volume, place long orders (stop loss 1,348.96).
Aggressive: Price breaks through the middle track 1,546.47 and pulls back without breaking, lightly chasing long.
Target:
First target 1,546.47 (middle track), second target 1,604.04 (left side dense trading area).
Stop loss: 1,348.96 (2% below the previous low) or break the intraday low.
Bearish strategy (trend-following high shorts, main logic)
Entry point:
Conservative: Price rebounds to around the middle track 1,546.47 and stagnates, place short orders.
Emergency: After the price breaks below 1,384.00, chase short.
Target:
First target 1,360.59 (BOLL lower track), second target 1,300.00 (psychological barrier).
Stop loss: 1,556.00 (0.6% buffer above the middle track) or break through 1,604.04.
Key contradiction point
Bull-bear watershed:
The middle track 1,546.47 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line, and before breaking through, focus on high shorts.
Potential MACD golden cross:
If the DIF crosses above the DEA to form a golden cross, it may trigger a 10%-15% rebound (target 1,600-1,730).
Sustainability of volume:
Current rebound needs to continuously increase volume (Vol > 3 million), otherwise it is easy to rise and fall back.
Summary and risk control
Short term priority: rebound to short high (around 1,546.47), strict stop loss of 1.5%.
Potential reversal signal: If the volume breaks through the middle track and the MACD forms a golden cross, it can switch to short positions (target 1,604-1,731).
Position suggestion: No more than 5% of total capital to avoid heavy one-sided positions.
Note: The current price has rebounded 6.5% from the 24-hour low, be cautious of main forces inducing buying and then dumping, it is recommended to take profits in batches (like closing positions in batches at 1,500/1,550).
