#交易心理学 Wednesday, good morning on a new day!
Last night, after several rebounds, the Bitcoin price failed to effectively stabilize above the 80000 mark. Our short position idea at this level has been validated. Subsequently, after the price retraced to the 78000 line, it paused somewhat. With the U.S. stock market opening with a rebound, it was originally thought that the market would enter a consolidation phase due to this influence. However, overnight, the price continued to decline. Although it has not yet refreshed its low point, the bearish pattern has intensified again. In the short term, there is a high probability that a second bottom will be tested, so in short-term operations, we should primarily short at high points.
On the daily chart, another bearish engulfing pattern has formed, with a significant upper shadow. The K-line is likely to close with a large bearish candle. Currently, the main force's liquidation has not ended, and the large-scale bearish trend is too obvious. It is quite difficult to recover in the short term, and there is heavy selling pressure above. The downward channel trend is also evident. In the 4-hour timeframe, the bears dominate, and after a series of bearish retracements, it has again shown a bearish market. The short-term EMA trend has turned downward again, and all moving averages and auxiliary indicators are showing a downward dispersion pattern. Therefore, the strategy should still be bearish.
As for Ethereum, overnight, the price retraced to a low of around 1440. Currently, as the price dips again, the resistance has clearly moved down to the 1600 line. Although the overnight pullback has not yet broken the previous low, the continuous bearish candles on the daily and 4-hour charts indicate that selling pressure above is still very heavy. All moving averages and auxiliary indicators are showing a downward trend, and the extremely weak pattern is obvious. In this situation, it is wise to look for pressure points and follow the trend. Even if you want to catch a rebound, while managing risk, it is also essential to take profits when the opportunity arises.
On Wednesday morning, Bitcoin slightly rebounded to the 77000 line, so a light short position is suggested. If it reaches 78000, increase the short position. Below, we should first pay attention to the low point at the 74400 line; consider entering a long position only if this level holds. For Ethereum, continue to reference the 1600 line as strong resistance and short at high points. Aggressive traders may consider trying a long at the current price of 1470 for a rebound. If it touches the 1580-1600 area and does not break, continue to enter short positions, with the stop loss set below 1400. If it breaks below, there is a possibility of accelerated bearish movement.