• Ecosystem growth failed to support price expectations
    Despite the rapid expansion of the TON ecosystem in 2024 due to Mini Apps (like Notcoin, Hamster Kombat) attracting tens of millions of users, the token economic models of these projects largely rely on short-term airdrops and speculation, lacking long-term value support. The TON token itself, serving as a Gas fee and governance token, has not gained enough demand driven by ecosystem activity, leading to a disconnection between price and speculation, resulting in continued pressure.

  • Market selling pressure and liquidity issues
    The circulation of TON tokens is expected to increase significantly after 2024, with early investors, the foundation, and airdrop participants' unlocking and selling possibly being important factors. Especially after projects with high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) are launched, retail investors' willingness to buy decreases, and the lack of market liquidity further exacerbates the decline. Moreover, the depth (thickness of buy and sell orders) of TON in the secondary market is not as robust as mainstream public chains (like Solana), making the price susceptible to large sell orders.

  • Negative sentiment related to Telegram
    The confidence blow to the TON ecosystem from the arrest of Pavel Durov in 2024 has not fully dissipated. As Telegram is the largest endorser of TON, its legal and regulatory risks (such as investigations by French authorities) have raised concerns among investors about the long-term stability of TON. This uncertainty has led to capital outflows, preventing the price of TON tokens from rebounding alongside the bull market in early 2025.

  • Competitive environment squeeze
    In the current bull market, public chains like Solana and BNB Chain have attracted more capital and attention due to their mature ecosystems and higher TVL (Total Value Locked). The development of TON's DeFi and NFT sectors has been slow, failing to provide sufficiently attractive investment narratives, leading retail and institutional funds to flow towards other chains, thereby weakening the demand for TON tokens.

  • Macro market and short-term corrections
    In March 2025, overall volatility in the crypto market intensified, with mainstream coins like BTC and ETH experiencing corrections. As a mid-to-small-cap token, TON is more susceptible to systemic risks. Additionally, TON may have been overvalued previously due to the Mini Apps frenzy, and the current decline may reflect the market's return to rationality.