- Price Rebound: Bitcoin has recently rebounded from mid-March lows (around $76,600) and is currently fluctuating around $87,500, up about 3.65% in 24 hours. This is related to institutional inflows, such as BlackRock recently increasing its Bitcoin holdings by about $145 million.
- Technical Indicators:
- The daily chart shows Bitcoin has broken above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA 200), currently stabilizing around $85,300, and closing with a green candlestick, indicating potential upward momentum in the short term.
- Key resistance level is in the $89,500 to $91,000 range; if effectively broken, it may further test the $90,000 mark.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 48, which is in the neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating there is still room for short-term increases.
- Market Sentiment: Posts on X reflect that some investors are optimistic about a short-term rebound, believing the current trend is positive, but others warn that this may just be a temporary rebound after a decline, rather than a trend reversal.
### Medium-term Trend (Next Few Weeks to Months)
- Support and Resistance:
- Support level at $79,206 (near last week's low), this could be a buying opportunity if a correction occurs.
- Resistance level at $90,000 to $91,000; if the breakout fails, it may lead to a price drop below $85,000.
- Influencing Factors:
- Federal Reserve Policy: The market expects the Fed to possibly continue lowering interest rates in 2025, increasing market liquidity, which typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. However, if interest rate cut expectations are missed or hawkish signals emerge, it may trigger selling pressure.
- Institutional Participation: Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT) continue to attract inflows, supporting price stability.
- Impact of the Trump Administration: Trump plans to hold a cryptocurrency-related meeting tomorrow (March 25), which may bring favorable policy expectations and further boost market confidence.
### Long-term Trend (2025 Full-year Outlook)
- Optimistic Forecast:
- Analysts generally believe that Bitcoin may continue a bullish trend in 2025, driven by cyclical increases after halving, increased institutional adoption, and global liquidity easing.
- Several institutions (such as Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicting $250,000 and Matrixport predicting $160,000) are optimistic about year-end prices based on historical cycles and current fundamentals.
- Potential Risks:
- Historically, Bitcoin often experiences a 20%-40% correction after rapid increases, especially after reaching new highs.
- Geopolitical tensions (such as conflicts in the Middle East) or macroeconomic uncertainties may lead investors to turn to safe-haven assets, suppressing Bitcoin prices.
### Current Summary
Bitcoin shows a rebound trend in the short term and may test the $90,000 level, but whether it can establish a reversal trend still needs to observe the breakthrough of the $89,500 resistance level. In the medium term, policy expectations and institutional funds will be key driving factors. In the long run, the overall trend in 2025 leans towards bullish, but one should be wary of adjustment risks brought by high volatility.
