Cointelegraph

Bitcoin’s price may stay flat in the first quarter of 2026, even though historical trends suggest otherwise, says CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju said on Wednesday, adding that investor interest has returned to “stocks and shiny rocks” as the price of gold and silver have skyrocketed.

Ju added that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to crash from its peak as it has done in the past, and expected “just boring sideways for the next few months.”

Bitcoin is trading at around $90,890 at the time of publication, down over 2% in the past day and has fallen from a high this week of $94,400, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is up 0.81% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin trading sideways would go against trends

The lack of any real price movement in the first quarter of 2026 would counter how Bitcoin has historically performed.

The month of January has historically been a more modest month for Bitcoin, averaging a 3.81% return since 2013. February and March have delivered far stronger historic gains of 13.12% and 12.21% respectively, according to CoinGlass.

Ju’s comments come after veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity’s director of macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, floated the possibility of Bitcoin falling as low as $65,000, or even $60,000, this year.

Sentiment in the market has been recently subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, floating between “Fear” and “Extreme Fear” since early November. On Thursday, the index posted a “Fear” score of 28.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs show signs of life

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) performance over the first three trading days of 2026 are showing signs of momentum, with $925.3 million in net inflows, according to Farside Investors data.

While Ju has started 2026 with a conservative forecast, other industry participants are showing much more confidence in Bitcoin’s price this year.

Venture capitalist Tim Draper said on Wednesday that “2026 will be big”.

“Bitcoin goes mainstream. My $250k prediction finally reached,” he said, referring to the call he first made in 2018, when he said Bitcoin would hit that level by the end of 2022.

Meanwhile, Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen said on Dec. 17 that Bitcoin will break the traditional four-year cycle in 2026 and reach new all-time highs.

He said that while the four-year cycle typically delivers three up years followed by a down year, which would point to 2026, he doesn’t see it playing out that way this time.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Digital asset infrastructure company Fireblocks has spent $130 million to acquire crypto accounting platform TRES, tapping the company for its tax compliance infrastructure to support institutions. 

Fireblocks said on Wednesday that with stablecoin settlements exceeding “hundreds of billions monthly” and enterprises running “entire treasury flows on-chain,” there is a strong need for sufficient blockchain accounting protocols to remain compliant. 

"Both crypto-native firms and traditional institutions need clear, accurate accounting and auditability. By offering TRES and Fireblocks together, customers can now run both their digital asset operations and get the financial intelligence they need on one secure, compliant, scalable stack," said Fireblocks CEO Michael Shaulov. 

As part of the acquisition, TRES’ infrastructure will provide Fireblock clients with “audit-ready, tax-compliant financial records” of their financial operations. 

Source: Fireblocks

Fireblocks told Fortune on Wednesday that it paid $130 million for the acquisition, with the firm emphasizing the importance of acquiring TRES to help support its clients in maintaining compliance while utilizing blockchain tech.  

Related: Crypto rich threaten to leave California after new tax: Is it a bluff?

“We believe that we will be able to create a much broader treasury management solution that is kind of full spectrum,” Shaulov said.

TRES CEO and co-founder, Tal Zackon, said in a blog post that the platform “will continue as a stand alone product” and nothing would change for its customers and partners.

“Fireblocks will leverage their size and skill set to accelerate our growth, perfect our customer service, enhance our security and enterprise readiness and deepen our technological advantage,” he added.

Fireblocks provides crypto custody, transfer and settlement services to its clients, claiming to have partnered with 2,400 enterprises and supporting $10 trillion worth of transactions. The firm also provides stablecoin services to help enterprises launch and manage their own stablecoins.

This isn’t the only recent acquisition the firm has made to bolster its offerings, with Fireblocks acquiring and integrating the tech stack of enterprise-focused wallet provider Dynamic in late October.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

The bank lobby’s requested changes to the stablecoin-regulating GENIUS Act could undermine competition and weaken the US dollar’s global position, crypto executives and industry groups have claimed. 

Crypto advocacy group the Blockchain Association said on Tuesday that a bid to lawmakers by a group of community bankers to ban issuers from offering yield to tokenholders through third parties was “a last-ditch effort by Big Banks to block competition after Congress struck a careful, bipartisan deal.” 

The GENIUS Act bans stablecoin issuers from offering interest or yield, but major crypto exchanges are still rewarding stablecoin holders, and community banks argued that closing the claimed loophole is crucial for protecting their lending abilities.

“No evidence” stablecoin adoption will hurt banks

The Blockchain Association said there is “no evidence of stablecoin adoption dismantling traditional financial institutions.” 

The Association said that while low-yield bank accounts primarily benefit “large incumbents,” stablecoin rewards offer greater benefit to the everyday person. 

“No new evidence. No new risks. Just incumbent pressure to shut out competition,” the Blockchain Association said.

Source: Chad Steingraber

Pro-crypto lawyer John Deaton said on Wednesday that such a significant change to the legislation would be “a national security trap,” claiming it would incentivize the use of China’s interest-bearing digital yuan.

“The stakes are higher than ever because China officially began paying interest on the Digital Yuan (e-CNY) - making it a ‘yield-bearing’ competitor to the USD,” Deaton said.

Alexander Grieve, the government affairs vice president at Paradigm, warned that undoing the GENIUS Act’s rewards provisions would “squander” progress.

“Now, after false and alarmist bank cries, they’re looking to undo a key part: rewards,” Grieve said.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz echoed similar frustration and the US “would be fools” to reverse the law.

“What I say to banks who are whining like mad 4th graders.  Toughen up and compete. This is what innovation looks like.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Wyoming’s Frontier Stable Token (FRNT), the first stablecoin issued by a US state, is now available to the public following delays caused by lingering regulatory hurdles.

The state’s Governor Mark Gordon said on Wednesday that it is “the first fiat-backed, fully-reserved stable token to be issued by a public entity in the United States.” 

He added that the token would provide “a cheaper, faster, and more transparent means of transacting,” and would be “another source of funding for our schools and can lower the taxpayer burden in our state.”

The token can be bought on the crypto exchange Kraken and is live on the Solana blockchain, but can be bridged to Arbitrum, Avalanche, Base, Ethereum, Optimism, and Polygon using the Stargate platform.

Source: Mark Gordon

The stablecoin can also be bought through Rain, a Visa-powered, integrated card platform operating on the Avalanche blockchain.

A growing number of countries and banks have flagged plans to launch or adopt stablecoins as the success of such tokens has skyrocketed in the past year. The Bank of North Dakota has also announced plans in November to launch a state-issued token, the Roughrider coin, with the first test expected sometime this year. 

Stablecoin aims to cut bank fees

FRNT was designed by the seven-member Wyoming Stable Token Commission and is intended for both individual and institutional use.

It is fully backed by US dollars and short-duration US Treasurys and the interest income generated by the reserves is returned to the state, the Governor’s office said.

Converse County Treasurer Joel Schell said that another key benefit of adopting FRNT is the lower fees associated with transfers compared to credit card processing costs.

Source: Wyoming Stable Token Commission

FRNT allows dollar-denominated peer-to-peer transactions with fast settlement times, round-the-clock availability, and fees of roughly $0.01.

“The county is like any other business — we take credit cards, but we can't raise registration fees and property taxes to absorb the processing costs, so we send those costs directly to the customers,” Schell said.

“Last year, my office took in about $3.4 million in credit card transactions, which cost our constituents about $70,000 in fees that our processors collected. We're anxious to get out of that climate and to move into something else. Electronic payments, especially the stable token, would let us get more efficient.”

FRNT scaling throughout 2026

Wyoming’s Stable Token Commission plans to scale FRNT throughout 2026 by onboarding additional resale partners, deploying the token across other state agencies, and working with public entities interested in launching their own stablecoins.

The commission conducts quarterly assessments of new blockchains for potential FRNT deployment. Anthony Apollo, the commission’s executive director, said it looks forward to “scaling the program throughout 2026.”

“While we are working towards growing the supply of FRNT in circulation, we are also looking forward to utilizing the stable token as a tool to enhance government efficiency,” he added.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

The Trump family’s crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, has filed for a national trust banking charter to accelerate the institutional adoption of its USD1 stablecoin.

World Liberty said on Wednesday that its subsidiary WLTC Holdings filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a charter that would allow it to issue, custody, and convert its stablecoin in-house, rather than rely on third-party providers such as BitGo.

“Institutions are already using USD1 for cross-border payments, settlement, and treasury operations,” said World Liberty CEO Zach Witkoff. “A national trust charter will allow us to bring issuance, custody, and conversion together as a full-stack offering under one highly regulated entity.”

World Liberty’s trust bank would allow fee-free minting and redemption of USD1, as well as converting between US dollars and USD1, while enabling it to custody USD1 and other stablecoins. 

Source: World Liberty Financial

Crypto, fintechs help modernize banking system: OCC

The OCC handed out five conditional approvals for banking charters in December to Circle, Ripple, Fidelity Digital Assets, BitGo and Paxos, signaling the regulator’s willingness to expand crypto services into TradFi.

Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said at the time that “new entrants into the federal banking sector are good for consumers, the banking industry and the economy [as] they provide access to new products, services and sources of credit to consumers, and ensure a dynamic, competitive and diverse banking system.”

The OCC and World Liberty could face increased scrutiny with a banking charter, as some lawmakers have raised concerns about President Donald Trump’s potential conflicts of interest in World Liberty and his ties to the broader crypto industry.

Related: Trump floats Colombia action as Bitcoin climbs toward $93K

Trump is listed as a co-founder of the company alongside his sons Eric, Barron and Donald Trump Jr.

President Trump also came under fire for his ties to World Liberty, as he pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao after reportedly cutting deals that helped the Trumps' platform.

Witkoff reportedly said that World Liberty structured a trust company “to avoid conflicts of interest,” noting that Trump and his family wouldn’t serve as executives or exercise day-to-day control of the business.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

The market capitalization of stablecoins on the Solana layer-1 blockchain surged by $900 million over a 24-hour period on Tuesday. 

Stablecoins, blockchain tokens backed by fiat currency or debt assets, surged to a market cap of $15.3 billion on the Solana network, according to DeFiLlama. 

The dramatic surge came as decentralized finance platform Jupiter launched its JupUSD stablecoin, developed in partnership with synthetic stablecoin issuer Ethena.

The Solana stablecoin market cap surges. Source: DeFiLlama

Solana’s stablecoin ecosystem is dominated by Circle’s USDC (USDC), a dollar-pegged token, which accounts for over 67% of the network’s total stablecoin market cap.

The surge in stablecoins on Solana reflects heightened investment activity and investor interest, as the Solana ecosystem shifts toward becoming a hub of Internet capital markets, where value and risk are transferred entirely through onchain rails. 

Related: Coinbase bets on stablecoins, Base and 'everything exchange' for 2026

Stablecoins become critical plumbing as assets move onchain

Stablecoin settlement volume increased by 87% in 2025, according to financial rating agency Moody's Investors Service. 

Stablecoins are critical infrastructure for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), which are physical or traditional assets represented onchain, Moody's said. Tokenized RWAs require stablecoins for onchain liquidity and settlement.

Tokenizing assets opens new use cases, like being able to use traditionally illiquid asset classes such as art, real estate and collectibles as backing collateral for loans in DeFI applications. 

The RWA market is projected to surge to $30 trillion by 2030, according to several traditional financial institutions.

Stablecoins are among the leaders of that growth. The total market cap of overcollateralized stablecoins, tokens backed 1:1 by fiat cash deposits and government debt securities, is nearing $300 billion, according to RWA.xyz. 

Under the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law by US President Donald Trump in July 2025, regulated payment stablecoins must be backed on a one-to-one basis with high-quality liquid assets, effectively excluding algorithmic or under-collateralized models.

Algorithmic stablecoins, which use software or complex market trades to maintain their fiat currency pegs, are not recognized under the GENIUS Act. 

The GENIUS Act also prohibits stablecoin issuers from sharing yield directly with customers, a provision that has created debate about the future role of banks. 

Magazine: Pakistan will deploy Bitcoin reserve in DeFi for yield, says Bilal Bin Saqib

With a markup event on legislation to address digital asset market structure scheduled for next week, representatives from cryptocurrency companies are expected to fly into Washington, D.C., and some will engage with lawmakers on the bill.

Speaking with Cointelegraph on Tuesday, Cody Carbone, CEO of crypto advocacy organization The Digital Chamber, said it was “possible, if not likely,” that the Senate Agriculture Committee would hold a markup on its version of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA) — the market structure bill — at the same time as the Senate Banking Committee. Senator Tim Scott, who chairs the banking committee, said on Tuesday that the body would vote on market structure on Jan. 15.

Source: Cody Carbone

Ahead of consideration by both committees, the Digital Chamber said it had been “intimately involved” in drafting the legislation and had been invited by lawmakers to provide feedback on different versions of the bills. Carbone told Cointelegraph that the organization will bring in more than 50 member companies on Thursday “to continue to educate Senate offices on why we need a bill” and answer related questions.

“We’ve been very intentional given our diverse membership to bring in participants from all across the digital asset ecosystem: exchanges, token issuers, banks, Bitcoin miners [...] infrastructure providers, DeFi protocols,” said Carbone. 

Early drafts of the bill, expected to be one of the most significant pieces of legislation related to crypto and blockchain, showed that lawmakers planned to give the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) more authority in regulating digital assets. To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken a leading role in providing regulation and enforcement over many crypto companies.

Will the US midterms affect support for the bill?

On Monday, investment bank TD Cowen reportedly released a notice to investors warning that the RFIA was more likely to pass Congress in 2027, with final implementation potentially as late as 2029. The bank speculated that the 2026 midterm elections could cause some Senate Democrats to withdraw support for the bill, with Republicans potentially losing majority control in November.

This sentiment was similarly echoed by Republican Senator and Banking Committee member Thom Tillis, who in October said lawmakers should act “by the first part of January, February” to avoid conflicts with campaigning for the 2026 elections.

“Given the momentum of where we’re at and the progress that has been done between Republicans and Democrats over the last even just three weeks, through the holidays and the new year, it’s hard to bet against that this bill is going to get done early this year,” said Carbone. “There is a real desire to get it done before politics becomes a big factor in D.C.”

Progress on the bill in the Senate was likely delayed in October after Congress failed to reach a funding agreement, triggering the US government's longest shutdown in the country’s history.

Congress later reached a stopgap agreement to fund the government until Jan. 31. However, political concerns could cause another shutdown in a matter of weeks, potentially delaying the market structure bill in the Senate again.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Cryptocurrency exchange Gate has added an AI-powered market analysis tool, called GateAI, to its trading app, offering automated summaries and explanations of market data.

GateAI is available in version 8.2.0 and above of the Gate app and can be accessed across multiple areas of the platform, including token search, spot charts and the community feed. The company said the tool organizes market information based on existing data and is designed to flag uncertainty when conclusions cannot be verified.

According to Wednesday’s announcement, the feature is intended as a decision-support tool rather than an automated trading system, providing contextual information such as market factor breakdowns and basic risk indicators, while leaving trade execution under user control.

The company said GateAI operates under a usage quota model and may later be linked to the platform’s VIP tiers, with access levels varying by user status.

Gate is a centralized cryptocurrency exchange that offers spot and derivatives trading. According to the company, it serves more than 47 million users worldwide across 4,200 digital assets.

Centralized exchanges integrate AI

Gate follows other crypto exchange to integrate AI into applications. OKX began experimenting with AI-driven market monitoring in March 2023, using machine learning to analyze volatility and assess trading conditions in real time. Adoption has picked up significantly since then.

In July, Coinbase announced a partnership with Perplexity to integrate Coinbase’s market data into the AI-powered search platform, enabling users to access crypto information via Perplexity’s large language model.

In September, Binance rolled out a set of AI-powered features, beginning with its AI Token Report, which provides users with automated, token-level market summaries compiled from multiple data sources and updated regularly.

Crypto.com launched its Model Context Protocol the following month, enabling large language models such as Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT to access real-time crypto market data for AI-driven analysis, though the service is available through integrated AI tools rather than directly within the exchange’s trading app.

In August, Kraken took a more direct approach to AI-enabled trading by acquiring Capitalise.ai, with plans to embed the no-code, natural-language trading automation technology into Kraken Pro.

Kraken’s acquisition followed a broader wave of crypto-native companies buying AI firms outright rather than relying on integrations, including Chainalysis’s purchase of fraud-detection startup Alterya and xPortal’s acquisition of AI interface developer Alphalink, among others.

Magazine: Bitget’s Gracy Chen is looking for ‘entrepreneurs, not wantrepreneurs’

Babylon, a decentralized protocol focused on enabling native Bitcoin staking and lending, received $15 million in funding from a16z Crypto through the sale of Babylon's native BABY (BABY) tokens to the digital asset arm of Andreessen Horowitz.

In a blog post published Wednesday, a16z Crypto said the funding will support continued development of the protocol’s Bitcoin-native infrastructure.

“Bitcoin’s limited programmability” has left large amounts of Bitcoin (BTC) sitting idle, the blog reads, arguing that enabling its use as collateral could unlock a major source of onchain capital and allow BTC to function as a productive asset within decentralized finance (DeFi).

Founded as a Bitcoin staking protocol in 2022 by David Tse and Fisher Yu, Babylon Labs is developing a Bitcoin-native system of trustless vaults that allows BTC to be used as collateral in onchain lending while remaining on the Bitcoin network and under the user’s control.

In December, Babylon partnered with Aave Labs to bring native Bitcoin-backed lending to Aave V4, Aave’s latest lending architecture, with Babylon aiming to build a dedicated “Bitcoin-backed Spoke” that allows BTC to be used as collateral without wrappers or custodians.

The integration is expected to enter testing in the first quarter of 2026, with a joint product launch targeted for April 2026.

BABY rose sharply on Wednesday and was up about 5% at time of writing, according to CoinGecko data.

Source: CoinGecko

Bitcoin lending evolves in 2025

Crypto-backed lending was widely blamed for magnifying the fallout of the 2022 FTX collapse, as opaque balance sheets, rehypothecation and excessive leverage unraveled alongside falling token prices.

In 2025, however, the sector is resurfacing in a more restrained form, with lenders emphasizing full collateralization, stricter custody practices and tighter risk controls.

In January, Coinbase reintroduced Bitcoin-backed loans in the United States, allowing eligible users outside New York to borrow up to $100,000 in USDC (USDC) against BTC held on the platform. The loans are facilitated by Morpho Labs and executed on Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network.

In March, Xapo Bank launched Bitcoin-backed US dollar loans, enabling eligible clients to borrow up to $1 million against BTC holdings. The bank positioned the product for long-term Bitcoin holders seeking liquidity without selling, stressing that collateral is held in institutional MPC custody and not rehypothecated.

Meanwhile, digital asset lender Ledn moved to a fully collateralized, Bitcoin-only lending model in May. Under its revised structure, the company said client Bitcoin used as collateral will remain in custody and will not be loaned out or reused to generate yield.

Ledn co-founder Mauricio Di Bartolomeo told Cointelegraph in June that Bitcoin holders are also increasingly using BTC-backed loans to finance real estate purchases, allowing them to access liquidity while typically avoiding capital gains taxes.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin’s (BTC) early-January rally is unfolding against a mixed on-chain data backdrop, where strong accumulation demand is colliding with renewed miner distribution. 

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin accumulator addresses added roughly 60,000 BTC in six days, ending a multi-month consolidation phase.

Miners sent around 33,000 BTC to exchanges in early January, signaling reduced long-term holding.

The wider market impact hinges on whether spot demand can consistently absorb fresh sell-side supply.

Bitcoin accumulator addresses step in as price rises

CryptoQuant data noted Bitcoin accumulator addresses increasing their holdings from roughly 249,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC within the first six days of January. This marks a decisive shift after a consolidation period between September and December 2025, when holdings fluctuated between 200,000 and 230,000 BTC. 

Bitcoin accumulator addresses holdings. Source: CryptoQuant

The timing is notable. Accumulation has accelerated alongside Bitcoin’s rebound toward the low-$90,000 range, suggesting that long-term participants are willing to absorb available supply rather than wait for deeper pullbacks.

Miners reduce exposure: Can it stall the rally?

At the same time, the Bitcoin network saw about 33,000 BTC move from miner wallets to Binance in the first six days of 2026, a relatively high figure compared to typical miner flows. 

According to a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, this behavior suggests miners are opting to de-risk after the recent price advance, a pattern that often emerges during periods of post-rally uncertainty.

Bitcoin miner to exchange flow. Source: CryptoQuant

However, such selling pressure from miners alone does not automatically imply a sharp correction. The decisive factor is whether offsetting demand remains strong enough to absorb this supply without forcing prices lower.

Related: Bitcoin liquidation data points to ‘absurd’ potential rally to $100K: Analyst

BTC net taker flow and sentiment hint at stabilization

Market data leans toward a steady recovery. Binance's seven-day net taker flow sentiment recorded heavy net selling in November, averaging $2.3 billion per day, coinciding with Bitcoin’s drop toward $84,000. December marked a transition phase, and by late 2025, selling pressure faded. January has now recorded seven consecutive days of mild but consistent net buying, averaging $410 million.

Bitcoin 7-day net taker flow on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

While buying pressure remains modest, it is significant after a sell-dominated period. This shift aligns with the Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index returning to neutral territory for the first time since November, signaling that fear has eased even if optimism remains restrained, according to Bitcoin Researcher Axel Adler Jr. 

Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index. Source: Axel Adler Jr/X

These signals suggest Bitcoin’s rally may not be overheating, but its sustainability depends on whether steady accumulation continues to offset miner distribution in the weeks ahead.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs come into year 'like a lion’: 600% surge at current pace

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Polymarket has partnered with Dow Jones to make its predictions market data available to users on multiple platforms.

In a Wednesday notice, Polymarket and Dow Jones said the predictions market data would be available on The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily, among others. According to the companies, Polymarket will be featured in “dedicated data modules” on websites and select print placements.

Dow Jones CEO Almar Latour said the decision was based on helping clients “better interpret market sentiment and assess risk.” Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said the partnership would combine “journalistic insight with real-time market probabilities.”

Polymarket landing page as of Wednesday. Source: Polymarket

Founded in 2020, Polymarket has grown to become one of the top prediction markets platforms, rivaling Kalshi. The platform drew heightened attention during the lead-up to the 2024 US presidential election, when its markets were closely watched and ultimately correctly anticipated President Donald Trump’s victory.

Crypto companies and exchanges have also deepened their ties to prediction platforms, with Coinbase announcing onchain prediction markets with Kalshi in December.

In December, Polymarket said it identified and resolved a security issue affecting “a small number of users” on the platform. The company said the breach resulted from a “vulnerability introduced by a third-party authentication provider.”

Under scrutiny from US lawmakers after world leader’s capture

Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at the direction of Trump over the weekend, Polymarket settled a contract predicting the leader would be removed from power. A trader netted more than $400,000 in profit from a $32,000 bet. While Polymarket wasn’t directly accused of wrongdoing, a US lawmaker called for legislation aimed at addressing insider trading on prediction market platforms.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) ended 2025 slightly in the red with a -6.36% return after a strong start earlier in the year. While the annual loss appears modest, historical patterns suggest that down years have often preceded some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin has historically averaged close to 100% gains in the year following a down year.

Long-term models project a substantial target near $300,000 if liquidity conditions turn supportive.

Bitcoin history hints at upside after rare red years

According to Jesse Myers, Bitcoin Strategy Head at Smarter Web Company, Bitcoin has shown a consistent tendency to recover sharply after negative annual closes. Data from the past decade highlighted four down years: 2014, 2018, 2022, and, most recently, 2025.

Bitcoin's performance after a down year. Source: Jesse Myers/ X

The years immediately following those drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95%, and 156% respectively. Averaged together, these recoveries approach 95%, rounded to a 100% historical benchmark. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the repetition of this pattern continues to shape expectations for 2026.

Adding to the longer-term bullish case, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With noted that Bitcoin’s base-case valuation for 2026 sits between $200,000 and $300,000. With’s Bitcoin Decay Channel model uses quantile regression on historical price data to account for diminishing volatility across cycles.

Bitcoin Decay Channel. Source: Sminston With/X

With explained that the model’s oscillator remains near 20%, a level historically associated with early expansion phases. The projected 2026 target zone contrasts with Bitcoin’s stagnation near $88,000 at the end of 2025, which With attributed to delayed liquidity cycles rather than a definitive cycle peak.

Related: 2025 crypto bear market was ‘repricing’ year for institutional capital: Analyst

Momentum data signals a cautious market

Short-term indicators suggest patience may still be required. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that the 30-day average return of Bitcoin on Binance is at 0.0016, reflecting subdued momentum compared to earlier phases. At the same time, volatility remains elevated near 0.018, highlighting continued sensitivity to short-term price movements.

The Sharpe-like ratio, hovering around 0.09, remains positive but close to neutral. This ratio measures risk-adjusted returns, with higher readings reflecting stronger reward relative to volatility and near-zero levels signaling weaker efficiency.

BTC Cycle Sharpe Ratio on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, such readings align with transitional market phases, where risk-adjusted returns deteriorate even as broader trends remain intact. From a cyclical standpoint, Bitcoin remains in a pivotal spot, where price needs to lead further investment flows or risk a deeper consolidation.

Related: Why XRP is outperforming Bitcoin and Ether at the start of 2026

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

The balance of power in the United States Congress may shift in favor of Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections, fueled by inflation concerns, threatening to undo regulatory policies under the Republican Party and US President Donald Trump, according to billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio.

“The affordability issue will probably be the number one political issue next year, contributing to the Republicans losing the House and a very messy 2027 on the way to a very interesting 2028 election,” Dalio said, adding:

“Because of how our democracy works, President Trump has a two-year unimpeded mandate that can be weakened greatly in the 2026 mid-term elections and reversed in the 2028 elections. Nowadays, it is rare for one party to be able to stay in power for long.” 

US President Donald Trump comments on the need for the Republican Party to win the 2026 midterm elections. Source: PBS News Hour

The crypto industry is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Trump administration’s tech-focused policy agenda centered on digital technology and artificial intelligence 

A shift in the balance of power threatens to undo the pro-crypto regulatory shift in the US under the Trump administration before key pieces of legislation, including the CLARITY market structure bill, are signed into law.

Related: Trump says he’ll be impeached if Republicans lose midterms

CLARITY Act potentially delayed until 2027, aDemocrats seek to take control of the House

The CLARITY market structure bill may be delayed until 2027 due to Democratic lawmakers who are anticipating a power shift in the 2026 midterms and are delaying a vote until after the elections, according to investment bank TD Cowen.

Republicans currently hold a narrow five-seat majority in the House of Representatives.

The Democratic Party has about a 78% chance of taking control of the House in November, according to traders on prediction market Polymarket.

The US House of Representatives 2026 midterm election odds. Source: Polymarket

President Trump, his administration, and pro-crypto lawmakers only had a two-year window to pass crypto regulations, Joe Doll, the general counsel at non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace Magic Eden, told Cointelegraph in 2024.

"The House majority is a real slim margin, and it probably flips because it almost always flips. So you could have a divided government that gets things locked up and frozen in two years,” Doll said.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

Key points:

Bitcoin turned down from its overhead resistance but is expected to find support at the moving averages.

Select major altcoins are facing selling near their overhead resistance levels, but the shallow pullback suggests the recovery may continue.

Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure as bears attempt to sustain the price below $91,500. BTC exchange-traded funds recorded outflows of $243.2 million on Tuesday after attracting $1.16 billion in inflows in the first two trading days of the new year, according to Farside Investors’ data. That shows caution at higher levels.

However, a positive sign for BTC is that whales and sharks have accumulated 56,227 BTC since mid-December, according to Santiment. The onchain analytics platform added that cryptocurrency markets “typically follow the path of key whale and shark stakeholders, and move in the opposite direction of small retail wallets.”

Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

Another bullish voice is that of Miller Value Partners chief investment officer Bill Miller IV,  who said on CNBC that BTC is putting a higher base than it did in the spring of 2025. He expects BTC to “break out to a higher high than its all-time high from the fall.”

Could BTC and the major altcoins rebound off their support levels and resume their recovery? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC turned down from $94,789 on Monday, indicating that the bears are attempting to retain the price inside the range.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pullback is expected to find support at the 20-day exponential moving average ($90,022). If the Bitcoin price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with force, it increases the possibility of a break above the $94,589 resistance. The BTC/USDT pair may then ascend to the psychological level of $100,000 and subsequently to $107,500.

Contrary to this assumption, a break below the moving averages suggests that the Bitcoin price may extend its stay inside the range for some more time. Sellers will be back in control if they sink the pair below $84,000. 

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) broke above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on Tuesday, but the bulls failed to sustain the higher levels.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The Ether price has re-entered the triangle, with the next support at the moving averages. If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the ETH/USDT pair could soar to $3,659 and then to $4,000.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if the price continues lower and plunges below the support line. That suggests the break above the resistance line may have been a bull trap. The pair could plummet to $2,623 and then to $2,111.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) reached the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern on Tuesday, which is expected to act as a stiff resistance. 

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in the positive zone, signaling an advantage to buyers. A short-term trend change will be signaled if the bulls achieve a close above the downtrend line. The XRP/USDT pair may then climb toward $2.70.

The moving averages are expected to act as solid support on the way down. Sellers will have to yank the XRP price below the moving averages to retain the pair inside the descending channel for a few more days.

BNB price prediction

Sellers are attempting to halt BNB’s (BNB) recovery at the $928 level, but the bulls are likely to have other plans.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($877) has started to turn up gradually, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. A close above the $928 level will complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which has a target objective of $1,066.

Alternatively, if the BNB price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the BNB/USDT pair could swing between $790 and $928 for some time. The bears will be back in command below the $790 level.

Solana price prediction

Solana’s (SOL) recovery is facing selling near $147, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price turns up from the moving averages, it signals a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That enhances the possibility of a break above the $147 resistance. The SOL/USDT pair may then jump to $172.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the bulls have given up. The Solana price could then decline to $116. A solid rebound off the $116 level could signal a possible range formation in the near term.

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) is facing selling near $0.16, but the pullback is expected to find support at the moving averages.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price bounces off the moving averages, it shows that the bulls are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. That improves the prospects of a rally above the $0.16 resistance. The DOGE/USDT pair may then ascend to $0.19.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the Dogecoin price continues lower and skids below the moving averages. That suggests the bears remain sellers on rallies. The pair may then drop to $0.13 and later to $0.11.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) climbed above the 50-day SMA ($0.40) on Monday, but the bulls could not build upon the breakout.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On the way down, the bulls are expected to fiercely defend the zone between the 20-day EMA ($0.38) and the $0.37 level. If the Cardano price rebounds off the support zone, the ADA/USDT pair could rally toward the breakdown level of $0.50.

Contrarily, a drop below the $0.37 level signals that the bears remain active at higher levels. That heightens the risk of a break below the $0.33 level. The pair may then slump to the Oct. 10 low of $0.27.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has pulled back to the breakout level of $631, which is likely to act as a strong support.

BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the Bitcoin Cash price turns up from the $631 level or the 20-day EMA ($609), it indicates that the bulls remain in charge. The BCH/USDT pair could rally to $651 and eventually to the stiff overhead resistance at $720.

The first sign of weakness on the downside is a break below the 20-day EMA. That suggests the buyers are booking profits and the market has rejected the break above the $631 level. The pair may then slump toward $518.

Chainlink price prediction

Chainlink (LINK) has been range-bound between $11.61 and $14.98, indicating buying near the support and selling close to the resistance.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price turns up from the moving averages, the LINK/USDT pair could surge above the $14.98 resistance. If that happens, the Chainlink price could rally to $16.80 and subsequently to $17.66.

Contrarily, if the price breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may remain inside the range for some more time. The next leg of the downtrend could begin on a close below $10.94.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) relief rally reached the 50-day SMA ($29), where the bears are mounting a strong defense.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($26.34) is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If the Hyperliquid price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break above the 50-day SMA increases. The HYPE/USDT pair could then rally to the breakdown level of $35.50.

On the contrary, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bears continue to exert pressure. The pair may tumble to $23.64 and thereafter to the $22.19 support.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Riot Platforms sold 1,818 Bitcoin in December for $161.6 million at an average net price of $88,870, as part of a strategy shift from Bitcoin mining to monetizing its power and data center infrastructure, including support for artificial intelligence workloads, the company said Tuesday.

As of Dec. 31, the company held 18,005 Bitcoin (BTC), including 3,977 restricted BTC, down from 19,368 Bitcoin at the end of November, while producing 460 Bitcoin during the month.

Restricted Bitcoin refers to BTC that the company owns but has pledged as collateral under its debt facilities and holds in a segregated custody account, according to its regulatory filings.

Riot also said the December report will be its final monthly production and operations update as the company shifts to quarterly disclosures focused on overall business performance, data center strategy and progress, and Bitcoin mining.

Riot Platforms’ Bitcoin production update for December 2025. Source: Riot Platforms

In October, the company said Bitcoin mining was no longer its end goal, outlining plans to repurpose its power infrastructure to support a proposed 1-gigawatt AI data center campus.

According to data from Bitcointreasuries.net, Riot ranks seventh among publicly listed companies by Bitcoin holdings.

Top 10 Bitcoin treasury companies. Source: Bitcointreasuries.net

AI, technology companies deepen ties with Bitcoin miners 

As the cost of mining Bitcoin has risen following the April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards in half, miners have increasingly looked beyond BTC production for additional revenue. One of the most significant areas of interest has been artificial intelligence computing.

Because Bitcoin miners operate energy-dense data centers and large-scale power infrastructure, the sector has attracted growing attention from AI and technology companies seeking access to electricity and high-performance computing capacity.

Top 10 publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies by market cap. Source: Bitcoinminingstock.io

In August, Google became the largest shareholder of TeraWulf, holding about 14% of outstanding shares, after expanding a financial backstop tied to the miner. The backstop supports a 10-year colocation lease with Fluidstack, under which TeraWulf will supply data center capacity for artificial intelligence workloads.

A month later, Google acquired a 5.4% stake in Cipher Mining as part of a $3 billion, multi-year data center agreement involving Fluidstack, with Google guaranteeing $1.4 billion of Fluidstack’s obligations under a 10-year contract to lease computing capacity from Cipher.

In November, IREN signed a five-year, $9.7 billion GPU cloud services agreement with Microsoft to host Nvidia GB300 GPUs in its data centers. The same month, the top Bitcoin miner by market cap announced a $5.8 billion deal with Dell Technologies to acquire GPUs and related equipment to support the deployment.

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Key takeaways

The December 2025 Trust Wallet hack shows that vulnerabilities in crypto tools can affect crypto-friendly SMEs, even when attacks target individual users rather than businesses.

Supply-chain risks, such as compromised browser extensions or stolen API keys, can bypass traditional security defenses and lead to rapid financial losses in a very short time.

The incident also revealed how weak or unprepared verification processes can overwhelm compensation efforts, increasing operational strain and delaying legitimate reimbursements.

Heavy reliance on hot wallets remains a significant risk factor for SMEs, as convenience often comes at the cost of greater exposure to malware, malicious updates and private-key theft.

The Trust Wallet hack in December 2025, which resulted in losses of about $7 million, provides security-relevant insights for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that use cryptocurrencies. Although Trust Wallet primarily serves individual users, the mechanics of the attack highlight common vulnerabilities that also affect crypto-friendly SMEs, including fintech firms and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).

Alongside the direct financial damage, the incident showed how gaps in user verification created complications during the compensation process. For crypto-facing SMEs, the case highlights common vulnerabilities and underscores the importance of addressing them before incidents occur.

This article discusses how the Trust Wallet hack happened, its impact on the crypto community and the challenges the wallet faced during the compensation process. It also explores vulnerabilities SMEs commonly face during crypto-related hacks, potential remedial measures and the prevailing regulatory environment surrounding such incidents.

What occurred in the Trust Wallet hack

From Dec. 24 to Dec. 26, 2025, attackers targeted Trust Wallet’s Chrome browser extension by distributing a malicious update that affected users running version 2.68. The attack resulted in the theft of cryptocurrency worth about $7 million, impacting 2,596 verified wallet addresses. Nearly 5,000 reimbursement claims were later filed by users.

Trust Wallet advised users to update immediately to version 2.69, which removed the malicious code and prevented further attacks. During the reimbursement process, Trust Wallet CEO Eowyn Chen emphasized the importance of accurate user verification to prevent fraudulent claims.

Security experts later determined that attackers had inserted malicious JavaScript into the extension, allowing them to steal recovery phrases and private keys during normal wallet use. The attack likely involved a stolen Chrome Web Store API key, which enabled the malicious update to be distributed through official channels rather than relying solely on phishing.

Once private keys were compromised, funds were rapidly withdrawn and routed through centralized exchanges and cross-chain bridges, making recovery difficult. The incident demonstrated how trusted software update mechanisms can fail in critical ways.

In the aftermath of the theft, Trust Wallet disabled the compromised extension version, opened a refund portal and established a verification process for claims.

Did you know? The largest crypto hacks often do not involve breaking blockchains themselves but instead exploit wallets, bridges or user interfaces, showing that human-facing layers are often weaker than the underlying cryptography.

Immediate effects on the cryptocurrency community

Although Trust Wallet promised refunds, the incident briefly weakened confidence in browser-based wallets. Experts noted that many victims were unaware that browser extensions function as hot wallets, leaving them exposed to malware and supply-chain threats despite their convenience.

The attack also renewed debate around self-custody, with many commentators pointing to hardware wallets and offline storage as lower-risk options, particularly for larger holdings.

Beyond Trust Wallet, the attack raised broader concerns about the distribution and update mechanisms of cryptocurrency tools. Browser extensions, APIs and external libraries are widely used in cryptocurrency payroll systems, treasury management and SME-focused fintech services. The case showed that risks outside a company’s core systems can still cause significant harm.

The process of verification and claims handling

A key insight from the Trust Wallet hack became apparent during the post-attack phase. Nearly 5,000 claims were submitted for just over 2,500 affected addresses, highlighting the risk of duplicate, incorrect or fraudulent submissions.

Without robust verification procedures, refund processes can become overwhelmed, delaying legitimate payments and increasing operational risk. For crypto-using SMEs that manage payroll, reimbursements or client funds, this creates an additional vulnerability during emergency situations.

Trust Wallet required claimants to submit wallet addresses, transaction records, attacker addresses and other supporting details to verify losses.

For SMEs, the lesson from the Trust Wallet hack is straightforward: Verification processes must be prepared in advance, not developed during an incident.

Companies that handle cryptocurrency payments need established frameworks for identity, access and transaction checks well before any attack occurs. This preparation helps preserve stakeholder confidence under pressure.

Did you know? Hackers frequently move stolen crypto within minutes using automated scripts, routing funds through centralized exchanges, mixers and cross-chain bridges to reduce traceability before investigators can respond.

Vulnerabilities SMEs face during crypto hacks

SMEs often operate in environments where a single oversight can lead to significant asset losses. Threat actors exploit the following vulnerabilities in these businesses:

Supply-chain and update risks: The primary insight from the Trust Wallet hack is the threat posed by supply-chain attacks. SMEs frequently rely on browser extensions, software development kits, APIs and cloud services for efficiency. Each added component increases the attack surface, making continuous checks and validation essential.

Excessive dependence on hot wallets: The Trust Wallet hack exposed the risks of storing large amounts of cryptocurrency in hot wallets. While browser wallets offer convenience, they remain vulnerable to malware, malicious updates and private-key theft.

Social engineering and phishing follow-ups: After a hack, phishing domains and impersonation attempts typically increase, targeting users seeking reimbursement or recovery information. Attackers exploit confusion during these periods. For SMEs, training staff and users is a critical defense against such threats.

Security measures for crypto-friendly SMEs

In light of the Trust Wallet case, SMEs can take several security measures:

Cold storage for major assets: Storing private keys offline can significantly reduce exposure to malware and online attacks. Hot wallets should be limited to small balances needed for daily operations.

Mandatory multi-factor authentication (MFA): MFA should be enforced across all systems that access wallets, controls or approval workflows.

Incident response preparation: SMEs need clear, regularly updated plans for identifying, containing and recovering from attacks. Preparedness shortens response times and limits potential damage.

External security reviews: Independent audits can identify weaknesses that internal teams may miss and help ensure alignment with current security standards.

Strong access controls and supplier monitoring: Restricting access, whitelisting withdrawal addresses and assessing supplier security practices can help reduce risk.

Training for users and employees: Educating staff and users to recognize phishing attempts and impersonation messages helps prevent additional losses during high-stress incidents.

Did you know? Many crypto hacks are detected not by companies but by onchain analysts who spot unusual transaction patterns and wallet movements before official announcements are made.

Regulatory environment after the hack

Although no immediate regulatory action followed the Trust Wallet incident, it occurred amid tightening global oversight of the crypto sector. Regulators are increasingly expecting enterprises to implement strong controls around custody, incident reporting and consumer protection.

For crypto-friendly SMEs, this means security failures may lead not only to reputational damage but also to compliance-related consequences. Staying aligned with regulatory expectations has become as important for SMEs as maintaining technical resilience.

Stablecoin company Tether and video platform Rumble released a non-custodial crypto wallet on Wednesday, allowing users to tip Rumble content creators in digital currencies.

The wallet will initially support Tether’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDt (USDT), Tether Gold (XAUt), a tokenized commodity product, and Bitcoin (BTC), according to an announcement from Rumble. 

MoonPay will provide fiat currency on- and off-ramps for Rumble Wallet users, enabling them to cash out crypto into local currencies. 

Tether and Rumble initially slated the wallet rollout for December, once code and user experience bugs were hammered out.

Cointelegraph reached out to Rumble and Tether but had not received a response at time of publication.

The integration of crypto tipping on Rumble promotes the use of crypto as a medium of exchange rather than market speculation or store-of-value use cases, which have come to dominate Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptos in general.

Crypto is emerging as the future of internet-native value transfer, but challenges remain

“Peer-to-peer payments powered by crypto are the future of the internet economy,” said Ivan Soto-Wright, CEO of crypto payments company MoonPay.

Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency, was designed as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, according to the Bitcoin whitepaper published by pseudonymous developer Satoshi Nakamoto. 

However, low transaction throughput, with blocks forming about every 10 minutes and relatively high transaction fees, has kept it from being widely used as a payment method, especially for smaller purchases where the transaction fee eclipses the price of the good or service.

Currently, Bitcoin’s primary use case is as a store-of-value asset or a speculative instrument, with most users accumulating BTC and holding it long-term for price appreciation rather than spending it in commercial transactions.

Differences between inflationary and deflationary cryptocurrencies. Source: Cointelegraph

Stablecoins, which are blockchain tokens backed by assets such as fiat currencies or government debt instruments, solved this problem by offering near-instant settlement times and relatively low transaction fees, enabling value to move across the internet on blockchain rails.

Despite the innovation of near-instant, cross-border value transfer, stablecoins still suffer from currency inflation of the underlying fiat currency, centralization and the risk of confiscation, critics say.  

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China’s shifting definition of a store of value

For many years, luxury real estate occupied a central role in wealth preservation in China. Premium apartments in cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai served not only as residences but also as symbols of family wealth, social standing and financial security. Property ownership carried cultural significance, regulatory predictability and an assumption of long-term stability.

That presumption is now being publicly challenged. Conversations among wealthy Chinese investors point to a quiet but significant shift in how a “store of value” is defined.

On Chinese social platforms such as Weibo and Xiaohongshu, affluent users have explicitly compared Shenzhen Bay luxury homes priced at 60 million-66 million yuan ($8.3 million-$9.1 million) with Bitcoin (BTC), Nvidia stock and BNB (BNB) as competing stores of value.

Real estate ownership in China is increasingly viewed as illiquid and highly visible to regulators, while crypto assets are perceived as mobile capital. This contrast reflects a broader reassessment of liquidity, exposure and financial flexibility.

Property’s traditional role in Chinese wealth

Real estate has long played a unique role in China’s wealth structure. Limited channels for overseas investment and capital controls made property a default store of value for households and high-net-worth individuals.

Owning premium real estate in major cities signified more than financial gain. It represented stability, intergenerational continuity and a visible marker of achievement. Upscale homes were widely viewed as resilient assets, capable of withstanding economic downturns.

This conviction shaped the financial behavior of ultra-wealthy individuals for many years. Investors accepted mortgages as a necessary burden, tolerated concentration risk and overlooked liquidity constraints. Luxury real estate was valued not only for its financial returns but also for its social capital.

Did you know? Bitcoin was originally framed as “electronic cash,” but many holders now treat it less as a medium of exchange and more as digital gold. Its fixed supply and resistance to monetary debasement are valued more than its use for everyday transactions.

Initial indications of a changing trend

In recent months, Chinese social media platforms have seen open discussions among investors reassessing luxury housing. Posts have referenced properties in Shenzhen Bay, one of mainland China’s most elite districts, being weighed alongside Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

One widely circulated story recounted touring a premium apartment valued at around 66 million yuan while advising a friend that its price could fall to 30 million yuan within a few years. The post noted that prices in certain parts of the district had already declined by nearly half.

Others expressed discomfort with large mortgages. Some humorously referred to themselves as “house slaves,” a common phrase describing the mental burden of long-term debt. Even buyers who had paid for luxury homes outright voiced concerns about liquidity. Beyond status, they were increasingly focused on the challenges they might face when attempting to sell.

Luxury homes were no longer being discussed in isolation. Buyers showed growing interest in assets that could be quickly sold or hedged, particularly during periods of financial stress.

Assessing the liquidity factor in real estate and Bitcoin

Luxury real estate is inherently illiquid. Selling a high-value property takes time, depends on policy conditions and often requires regulatory approvals. During economic downturns, the pool of potential buyers shrinks sharply, putting downward pressure on prices.

On the other hand, internationally traded assets such as cryptocurrencies and foreign stocks offer near-instant pricing and execution. These assets can also be sold in portions, giving investors greater flexibility when adjusting positions. For wealthy individuals, this distinction is significant.

Bitcoin, in particular, is increasingly framed not as a growth asset but as a portable reserve. It is viewed as a tool for preserving flexibility rather than maximizing returns. Its appeal lies in what it enables holders to do under pressure, not in what it promises during stable periods.

Did you know? Crypto’s 24/7 global markets allow store-of-value holders to exit or rebalance positions at almost any time. This feature stands in contrast to real estate, bonds or bank deposits, which are tied to local business hours.

The hidden cost of luxury homes

Transactions involving high-value property can trigger tax scrutiny, audits or broader regulatory attention. During periods of tighter regulatory and tax enforcement, real estate exposure can become a source of concern rather than reassurance.

There are growing concerns that owning an expensive luxury home involves not only financial risk but also heightened regulatory and tax scrutiny. Real estate is highly traceable, making portfolio adjustments more visible and procedurally complex.

On the contrary, globally traded digital assets are perceived as operationally more flexible. Even when fully compliant, portfolios that include digital assets are easier to rebalance. Investors can diversify or relocate capital with greater flexibility, without attracting the level of scrutiny often associated with real estate transactions.

How youthful affluence is reshaping global markets

Age seems to influence the Bitcoin-versus-luxury-homes debate. Older generations and younger investors approach the question from markedly different perspectives.

Older generations in China, who benefited from decades of property appreciation, tend to retain confidence in real estate’s long-term prospects. For them, homes remain symbols of stability and family continuity.

Younger high-net-worth individuals, however, often hold a different worldview. Many are reluctant to commit capital to top-tier property markets or to take on prolonged debt. Their professional lives are more global, their peer networks more international, and their financial reference points shaped by digital markets.

For this younger group, crypto offers exposure to financial systems that are not tied to domestic property markets. Their interest in alternatives reflects less a rejection of status than a rejection of immobility.

Did you know? In countries with capital controls or currency instability, crypto is often viewed less as a speculative instrument and more as a hedge against restrictions on moving personal wealth across borders.

Decoding the cultural shift from luxury real estate to crypto

What emerges from social media discussions in China is not a unified investment strategy but a shift in mindset. The comparison between Bitcoin and luxury homes reflects changing social priorities as much as it does evolving market dynamics.

Bitcoin’s growing role in elite Chinese discourse is less about growth and more about ease. Crypto investment emphasizes liquidity and portability and is increasingly aligned with global financial systems. Luxury property, once the unquestioned default, is now being reexamined.

This does not suggest that property is disappearing from wealthy portfolios; rather, its dominance as the primary store of value is being challenged. Several factors will shape how this shift unfolds, including regulatory responses, stabilization in property markets and the evolution of capital controls.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new “battle” for control before bulls trigger the next round of BTC price gains — but the long-term outlook is grim.

Key points:

Bitcoin short-term and long-term perspectives contrast as bears stay in control on high timeframes.

A golden cross on the day chart does not cancel out short signals for the rest of the year.

A new all-time high is “not likely” as a result.

$87,500 retest next stop for BTC price

In his latest X analysis on Wednesday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, forecast a retest of the 2026 yearly open.

Bitcoin price action is now caught in a tussle between buyers and sellers — but a return to $87,500 is “not a matter of if, but when,” Alan says.

BTC/USDT order-book data with whale activity. Source: Keith Alan/X

Pointing to Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools, he revealed that bulls are trying to preserve support at $92,000.

“FireCharts shows a realtime battle unfolding in the $BTC order book,” he commented.

“Bulls are trying to defend support at the 2026-01-05 Timescape Level, but Whales appear to be looking for a support test closer to the Yearly Open before a Golden Cross forms on the D chart to trigger the next rally.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/X

That cross involves the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) — the former crossing above the latter would indicate renewed strength on lower timeframes.

Before that, however, a support retest of the yearly open is on the wall.

“The battle for it is happening right now,” Alan continued while discussing the situation.  

“If it doesn't happen in the next 24 hours, I expect it will happen after the Death Cross forms on the Weekly chart, around the middle of the month.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with 21, 50-week SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin, Ether at “critical inflection points”

Zooming out, other findings had little inspiration for Bitcoin optimists on multimonth timeframes and further out.

Multiple “short” signals, trading tools stated, mean that BTC/USD is unlikely to make new all-time highs before 2027.

“A lot can happen in 6 months that could invalidate it, but at the moment, it’s easy to build a case for price to drop after this current pump loses momentum,” Alan wrote about the six-month chart.

The research held similar conclusions about largest altcoin Ether (ETH), describing both coins as being “at critical inflection points.”

For a true turnaround, one-week relative strength index (RSI) values above 41/100, along with weekly closes above the 50-week SMA at $101,500, are needed.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 50SMA, RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Ripple Labs president Monica Long has ruled out an IPO for the company, saying it was in a “really healthy position” without going public.

In a Tuesday interview with Bloomberg, Long addressed rumors that Ripple was planning to go public after the company reached a $40 billion valuation in November. The Ripple president said the company was focused on growth following the $500 million fundraise headed by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group that led to its valuation. 

“Currently, we still plan to remain private,” said Long, expanding on her comments in November after the fundraise. "Often the strategy driving an IPO is to get the access to the investors and the liquidity of the public markets [...] We're in a really healthy position to continue to fund and invest in our company's growth without going public.”

The comments from Long going into 2026 came months after the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced it would wind down its enforcement actions against Ripple, fueling speculation about an IPO. Long has repeatedly denied reports that Ripple was pursuing a public offering.

At the time of writing, the price of XRP (XRP) was $2.20, having dropped by about 6% in the previous 24 hours. The token is the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

OCC grants US bank trust approval for Ripple and others

In December, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) conditionally approved applications from Circle and Ripple for national trust bank charters. BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos also received conditional approval to convert their existing state-level trust companies into federally chartered national trust banks.

Ripple’s application said its charter would “not be a stablecoin issuer” for its US dollar-pegged coin, Ripple USD (RLUSD), while the other companies will provide a variety of digital asset custody services to users. Of the applicants, BitGo has announced plans to go public, and Circle launched an IPO in May.

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