【Market Data】
Bitcoin price: $86130 (accounting for 60.53%)
Ahr999 indicator: 0.89 (dollar-cost averaging range 0.45-1.2)
Greed index: 15 (extreme panic)
Bitcoin Data Analysis
1. Bitcoin price: Currently at $86,130, with a significant decline in the last 24 hours (referring to recent data, on March 4, it briefly fell below $88,000, reaching a low of $85,400, with a maximum daily drop exceeding 6%).
2. Ahr999 indicator: 0.89, within the dollar-cost averaging range (0.45-1.2), meeting the entry conditions for long-term investment strategies.
3. Greed index: 15 (extreme panic), reflecting low market sentiment, with short-term selling pressure or bottoming signals emerging.
【Market Dynamics】
1. Price volatility and market sentiment:
- Bitcoin has continued to retreat from its peak of $109,394 in January 2025, breaking the $88,000 support level intraday on March 4, presenting a bearish 'head and shoulders' pattern in terms of technical analysis, and may briefly test $85,000 in the short term.
- Market bearish factors include: the exchange Bybit suffered a hacker attack (losses exceeding $1.5 billion), the delay of Bitcoin mining policy voting in South Dakota, increasing regulatory uncertainty.
2. Long-term trend support:
- Bitcoin's market dominance has strengthened to 71.3%, institutional investors are continuously laying out through ETFs, and long-term growth potential is still viewed positively.
- The locked positions in the Bitcoin Layer2 ecosystem continue to grow steadily (reaching $2.6 billion in January), with core public chains like Core and Bitlayer performing well, and the technical ecosystem continues to expand.
【Technical Analysis】
1. Short-term trend:
- K-line trend: The K-line on March 4 shows a continuation of the descending channel, with prices breaking through key support levels, the Williams indicator entering the oversold area, but trading volume is shrinking, indicating insufficient momentum for a short-term rebound.
- Historical data: The lowest price in 90 days is $78,349, which may serve as strong support; if it breaks below, it could trigger further panic selling.
2. Capital flow:
- US stock Bitcoin-related ETFs (such as Bitcoin Strategy ETF, ISHARES Trust) rose 8.9%-15.5% in pre-market, indicating that some funds are entering at lower levels.
【Investor Strategy】
1. Dollar-cost averaging window: Ahr999 indicator at 0.89 is within the dollar-cost averaging range, suitable for building positions in batches to diversify risk.
2. Short-term observation: The greed index of 15 reflects extreme market panic, suggesting to wait for stabilization signals and to pay attention to the effectiveness of the $86,000 support level.
3. Long-term layout: The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin Layer2 ecosystem and institutional ETFs (such as the growth in locked positions in Core and Bitlayer) may serve as long-term value anchors.
Summary: Bitcoin is currently suppressed by technical factors and bearish events in the short term, but the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged. Current market sentiment and the Ahr999 indicator suggest dollar-cost averaging opportunities; investors need to weigh risks and pay attention to regulatory dynamics and technical support level breakthroughs.
