Recently, many players have been discussing a question: why did the market decline again over the weekend? In fact, this weekend was not calm; it involved the fermentation of multiple events. Firstly, the tariff issue remains unresolved, and its impact continues to reverberate in market sentiment; secondly, the follow-up handling of the Russia-Ukraine war has not yet clarified, leaving players cautious due to the uncertainty of the situation. Additionally, there is a rather dramatic piece of news that has drawn attention—reportedly, North Korea has provided nearly half of Russia's strategic material needs in the Russia-Ukraine war. This raises curiosity about the source of these strategic materials. And after the stolen cryptocurrencies flow to North Korea, who is assisting in converting them into fiat currency behind the scenes? These questions may be difficult to answer in the short term, but they undoubtedly add a layer of complexity to the market.
The current price trend of Bitcoin can be summarized as 'oscillating,' but this is not surprising. Market sentiment has not fully warmed up, and players are eagerly awaiting favorable news from the U.S. Unfortunately, there are currently no significant uplifting news nor any alarming negative news. This is fundamentally why Bitcoin's price is hovering within a certain range. From a technical perspective, the turnover rate over the weekend was surprisingly low, almost dropping to the 'quiet period' low, reflecting that most players have chosen to sit on the sidelines and are even indifferent to short-term fluctuations. The market seems to be waiting for a clear signal—either a significant improvement in liquidity or the emergence of substantial positive news.
Looking ahead to this week, a key focus on the macroeconomic front is the U.S. January Core PCE data to be released on Friday. As the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve, its importance far exceeds that of CPI and unemployment rate data. According to market expectations, the year-on-year growth of the January Core PCE may drop from the previous value of 0.8% to 0.6%. Although the CPI performed poorly last month, the PPI data was decent, providing some support for a moderate decline in PCE. However, even if the data falls as expected, its impact may be limited, as the market has already digested the expectation of no interest rate cuts in March. Nevertheless, if Core PCE can fall below expectations, it may still provide a slight boost to player confidence.
Focusing on the data layer of BTC, a low turnover rate indeed indicates insufficient market vitality, but it also suggests that the current price is unlikely to break through key support levels. From the data perspective, the range of $93,000 to $95,000 remains rock-solid, and the risk of a substantial downward movement in the short term is relatively low. Of course, it is unrealistic to expect the price to soar. The market seems to be lacking a 'breath of fresh air,' which may only be revealed after the release of the Federal Reserve's dot plot in March. If the dot plot can signal easing, or if Trump's promoted 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' policy is implemented, it could spark a market rally. #比特币走势分析
