4·30|Old Vine Review|The market is not calm before the holiday, with spikes, testing, and playing dead all in action
Labor Day is approaching, but the main players have no intention of taking a break; the news continues to "stir":
1⃣ The SEC has "invited" a bunch of ETFs into the waiting area again, with SOL, XRP, DOGE, and HBAR all delayed, likely not to be revealed until the third quarter, but fortunately, the market has been psychologically prepared for this.
2⃣ Regulatory bodies in various countries continue to "perform routine duties": Australia wants to clean up zombie exchanges, Russia wants to define illegal mining as a crime, and Italy has jumped in to say "crypto is detrimental to financial stability"—just take a look, don't take it too seriously.
3⃣ The Federal Reserve is basically confirmed, with the probability of no interest rate change in May raised to 92.3%, and the focus is now entirely on how inflation data will cooperate.
📉 How does the technical side look?
BTC:
The market is fluctuating with spikes and decreasing volume, which is typical of main player control + testing. In the short term, it is still oscillating between 938-955, with 928 as key support below; if it can't break above 954 with volume, it won’t go up. Those who are steady can continue to wait for the support line to buy low.
ETH:
After a continuous decline, it finally catches a breath, with a stop-loss signal on the monthly chart. The short-term focus is on whether it can hold 1720; if it does, there’s a chance to push towards 2100. Short-term support is at 1750-1770, with resistance at 1815-1835.
📌 AI sector + altcoins for a quick update:
The main line logic is still there, just moving a bit slowly before the holiday; a few coins worth paying attention to:
FET: Hold 0.68 before considering further action.
WLD: Moving steadily, with support at 1.05, defense at 0.98, and looking up to 1.3.
ARKM: Fluctuating and building strength, short-term support at 0.57; if it breaks 0.5, reduce holdings, target above 0.71.
PHB: Structure is relatively strong; if it doesn’t break 0.55, continue to be bullish, target 0.71, defense at 0.51.
XRP: Slight drop after news pressure, but the structure is not broken, currently in a state of fluctuating strength, waiting for a volume increase to lift it up.
#比特币走势分析