🚨 Start of payouts: a long-awaited moment.
On February 18, 2025, the bankrupt exchange FTX announced the start of payouts to affected clients. According to the latest data, $800 million has already been transferred from the first wave of compensations, in which clients with balances up to $50,000 will receive money. A total of $1.2 billion is planned to be paid at this stage.
But there is a nuance: large clients (with balances over $50,000) will only be able to access their money starting from May 30. The final payout plan will be approved on April 11, and the total amount of returned funds is expected to be around $16 billion.
💰 How will this affect the market?
It seems like good news — traders and investors are getting their money back. But let's dig deeper.
1️⃣ Major players will not be able to enter at low prices.
For now, money is only being returned to small clients, while the 'whales' will gain access to liquidity only at the end of May. This is an important point because market makers are not interested in allowing large investors to jump on board at low prices.
2️⃣ Probability of market growth before May 30.
If the main payouts start in May, there is a high probability that the market will be significantly higher by that time. No one wants to give the 'big players' a chance to buy cheap before the capital injection.
3️⃣ Where can clients direct their money?
When people get their money back, especially in the crypto industry, the question arises: what's next? Some will withdraw it to fiat, but the majority of participants, especially in a bull market, are likely to reinvest it into digital assets. This creates additional demand.
⏳ What to expect next?
✔️ By May 30, the market may move upwards to prevent major clients from buying at lows.
✔️ After the start of payouts, sharp movements are possible — both upwards (due to new liquidity) and short-term corrections (if part of the received funds goes to fixation).
✔️ It is important to monitor news and the behavior of market makers during this period.
🚀 Should we expect growth?
With a high degree of probability, the crypto market will meet May at higher levels than now. If FTX fulfills its obligations and injects $16 billion into the market, we will see an interesting dynamic. The main thing is not to miss the moment.
What do you think, will the FTX factor be a catalyst for the market?