In February, we published an article about the so-called "FTX factor," where we predicted a potential rise in the crypto market amid the return of liquidity to clients of the bankrupt exchange. And indeed — in May, the market showed rapid upward movement, and Bitcoin reached new local highs.
But today, attention is shifting from positive dynamics to more alarming signals from the macroeconomy, especially from the U.S. These factors may become the next drivers of either a correction or a change in the market phase.
Economic anxiety in the U.S. is at a historical peak
According to the latest data, the level of economic uncertainty in the U.S. reached record highs in the last 25 years after Donald Trump took office as president.
For comparison:
In 2008, during the height of the mortgage crisis, this index was 2.5 times lower.
During the COVID-19 pandemic — 20% lower than today.
This indicates that the market operates against a backdrop of distrust and anxiety, which can turn into a sudden reaction at any moment.
The Fed and interest rate policy: more questions than answers
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also signaling caution:
Leading representatives of the Fed advocate for lowering rates only once during 2025, while increasing attention is paid to the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
Such expectations push markets to reassess risks and can cause volatility across all asset classes.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
If spring was a time for restoring trust and growth amid FTX, then the summer of 2025 may become a phase of uncertainty and reactions to macroeconomic factors:
Increased anxiety heightens participants' tendency to lock in profits.
The likelihood of a 'black swan' event — geopolitical, regulatory, or financial — is increasing.
The rise caused by the FTX factor has played out. Markets are now entering a new phase where global risks and macroeconomics take center stage.
It is important for investors not to succumb to euphoria and to closely monitor fundamental indicators.
Do you think I'm being overly cautious? Share your opinion — let's discuss.