When we discussed the start of payments from the bankrupt FTX exchange in February, many perceived this news as a purely legal formality. However, attentive readers could already catch key signals: the beginning of liquidity return is not just compensation, it is a catalyst for market movement.
📌 Fact: An article from February 23 predicted a potential pump in May — and the market met expectations. Bitcoin confidently surpassed important resistances, reaching new local highs.
Why did FTX become the trigger for growth?
1️⃣ Liquidity without the participation of "whales"
In February-March, funds were returned only to retail clients. This created a "clean" growth without pressure from large players, who were restricted from accessing liquidity until May 30. This situation is beneficial for market makers: growth without excessive competition.
2️⃣ Emotional and technical rise
During periods of uncertainty, the market clings to positive triggers. Payments from FTX became just such a factor. It increased trust, amplified FOMO, and ensured additional demand, especially in light of heightened geopolitical expectations.
3️⃣ The numbers speak for themselves
As of May 2025, the market has already grown more than 20% from February levels. And this is before the main wave of payments to large clients begins.
🔻 What’s next? Caution: pump before a crash
❗️Growth is not infinite. Attention now shifts to what will happen after May 30, when large investors officially enter the game.
Here are the key risks:
Part of the received funds may go towards profit-taking rather than reinvestment.
The reassessment of assets in the context of slowing global growth and unstable geopolitics may lead to reduced interest from institutional investors.
Manipulations by market makers — their task is to prevent the majority from making a profit. This means that after the "perfect" growth scenario, the market may present surprises.
🧠 Psychology that cannot be ignored
It is important to understand that mass perception works on the scheme "first we don't believe - then we buy at the highs." The current growth is fueled, among other things, by an unconscious fear of missing out on profits (FOMO). And if you see growth on the charts — the market makers have already done their job.
❗️Conclusions
In February, we forecasted growth based on fundamental and behavioral factors. And the market confirmed our expectations. But now is not the time to lose vigilance.
📌 The next stage is capital redistribution.
Perhaps it is only after May 30 that a new, more turbulent cycle will begin. Prepare in advance, not after the fact.
🗨️ History has repeatedly proven: the more euphoria, the closer the resolution.