$SOL
Short-term prices are approaching the oversold area, indicating a technical rebound demand, but it requires accompanying volume. The core strategy is 'lightly test long positions in the oversold range, short on rebound resistance', with strict stop-loss. In the medium to long term, the strength of the 180 support needs to be verified; if it stabilizes, there remains potential for recovery; otherwise, be wary of a deep pullback.
Price and Volatility:
- Current Price: 192.32 (-0.42%), 24h Low: 188.00, High: 203.31, price has broken below the BOLL middle track 195.23, close to the lower track 187.75, short-term bears dominate but are close to the oversold area.
- Volume: 24h trading volume 3.777 billion (decreased), trading volume 19.3081 million SOL, market trading is light, and a rebound requires volume support.
- MACD: DIF (-1.04) and DEA (-0.64) negative values, histogram shrinks (-0.40), bearish momentum weakens but has not reversed.
- KDJ: K (34.34), D (30.55), J (41.90), neutral and slightly low, not extremely oversold, and a short-term rebound requires volume support.
- RSI(6): 44.13, neutral range, no clear directional signal.
- Moving Average System: MA5 (415K) and MA10 (628K) in bearish arrangement, but MA5 is close to MA10, be wary of a short-term golden cross signal.
Recent Trend Forecast
- Direction Judgment:
- Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes in the 187.75-185 range and increases in volume, rebound target 195.23-202.71, breaking the middle track will restore to 203-208.
- Bearish Scenario: If it continues to decrease in volume and falls below 187.75, it may short-term dip to 180-175 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level).
Medium to Long-term Trend Outlook
1. Upward Conditions:
- After stabilizing above 202.71, target 208-220 (previous high and Fibonacci extension levels), requires sustained volume increase.
2. Downward Risks:
- If it loses 180, it may deeply pull back to 170-160 (long-term trend line support), be wary of deteriorating market sentiment.
Operation Strategy
- Short-term Strategy:
- Long Position: Lightly test long in the 187-185 range, stop-loss at 182, target 195-202;
- Short Position: If it rebounds to 195-202 without volume support, consider shorting, stop-loss at 205, target 188-180.
Risk Warning
1. Technical Aspects: Weak oversold rebound, sustained negative MACD, insufficient volume;
2. External Linkage: If Bitcoin drops sharply, it may drag down SOL;
3. Sentiment Aspect: The market is heavily cautious, need to be prudent in chasing rises and falls.
