$SOL
There is a strong rebound in the short term but it is overbought. The strategy is mainly to go long on pullbacks, with strict stop losses.
Current key figures and indicators
1. Price and volatility:
- Current price: 218.39 (+16.39%), 24h lowest price 184.98, highest price 219.45, after breaking through the BOLL middle track (206.91) and approaching the upper track (224.37), short-term bulls dominate.
- Volume: 24h trading volume is 7.313 billion (large volume), which needs to be verified for sustainability; if the volume decreases, be wary of the risk of false breakthroughs.
- Mark price: 218.37, basically consistent with the current price, with no significant premium in the market.
2. Technical indicators:
- BOLL band: upper track 224.37, middle track 206.91, lower track 189.44, the price has entered the upward channel, but the upper track pressure is clear.
- KDJ/RSI: K value 90.49, RSI (6) 71.40, both are overbought, and the risk of short-term correction is increasing.
- MACD: DIF (4.14) crosses above DEA (2.44), the histogram expands, but the volume needs to cooperate.
- Moving average: MA5 (611K) and MA10 (908K) are in a short position arrangement, and the price may rebound or repair the structure.
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Model optimization and correction
1. Dynamic adjustment of support and resistance:
- Support: 206.91 (middle) → 200 (psychological barrier) → 189.44 (lower);
- Resistance: 224.37 (upper rail) → 228.35 (market pressure) → 235-244.59 (previous high).
2. Quantity and price refinement:
- The current increase in volume needs to be distinguished between "short covering" or "new capital entering the market". If it continues to be higher than the MA5/MA10 average volume, the trend is credible.
3. Multi-indicator verification:
- If the price hits a new high but the MACD column shrinks, forming a top divergence, the probability of a pullback increases greatly.
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Recent trends (1-7 days)
- Direction judgment:
- Upward: Stabilize at 215-218, break through 224.37 with large volume, target 228-235;
- Downside: Falling below 206.91 with reduced volume, retracing to 200-189, with an extreme price target of 170-160.
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Medium to long term trends (1-3 months)
- Upward conditions: After stabilizing 224, the target is 235-250 (previous high and Fibonacci level);
- Downside risks: A break below 189.44 could lead to a test of 170-160 (long-term trend line).
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Operational Strategy
- short term:
- Long order: light position at 210-206, stop loss at 200, target at 224-228;
- Short order: Try shorting after breaking through 224 with no volume, stop loss at 230, target at 215-210.
- Long term: Break through 224 and add positions in batches, target 235-250;If it falls below 189, wait and see.
