#solana $SOL

Short-term prices are approaching the oversold area, indicating a technical rebound demand, but it requires accompanying volume. The core strategy is 'light positions in the oversold range for long, and short if resistance is encountered on the rebound', with strict stop-loss. Beware of deep pullbacks.

Current key data and indicator analysis

1. Price and Volatility:

- Current Price: 198.08 (-4.03%), 24h low 195.05, high 209.26, price has broken below the BOLL middle line 201.60, approaching the lower line 194.46, short-term bearish dominance.

- Volume: 24h transaction amount 3.201 billion (continuously decreasing), trading volume 15.8234 million SOL, market trading is light, rebound needs volume support.

2. Technical Indicators:

- BOLL Bands: Upper line 208.74, middle line 201.60, lower line 194.46, price is close to the lower line, if it stabilizes, it may trigger a technical rebound.

- MACD: DIF (-2.65) and DEA (-2.28) negative values are expanding, histogram is contracting (-0.37), bearish momentum is dominant but not accelerating.

- KDJ: K (23.19), D (19.04), J (31.48), all three lines are oversold, indicating short-term rebound demand.

- RSI(6): 43.72, neutral but slightly low, not extremely oversold.

- Moving Average System: MA5 (482K) and MA10 (814K) are in a bearish arrangement, but MA5 is close to MA10, beware of a potential short-term golden cross signal.

Recent trend forecast

- Direction Judgment:

- If the price stabilizes in the 194.46-190 area and increases in volume, rebound targets are 201.60-208.74, breaking the middle line would repair to 209-215.

- If it continues to decrease in volume and breaks below 194.46, it may short-term dip to 190-183.57, with an extreme view of 180 (long-term trend line).

Operation Strategy

- Short-term Strategy:

- Long position: Light positions in the 194-190 range for long, stop-loss at 188, target 201-208;

- Short position: If the rebound reaches 201-208 without volume support, consider shorting, stop-loss at 210, target 195-190.

- Long-term Strategy:

- After breaking 208.74, add positions in batches, target 215-230; if it breaks below 190, observe and wait for stabilization signals in the 180-170 area.

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Risk Warning

1. Technical Aspect: Weak rebound from oversold, MACD continues negative values, insufficient volume;

2. External Linkage: A sharp drop in Bitcoin may drag down SOL;

3. Sentiment Aspect: Market panic sentiment has not fully released, need to be cautious in chasing highs and cutting losses.